1. The Making of National Seasonal Wildland Fire Outlooks
Timothy Brown
Program for Climate, Ecosystem and Fire Applications
Desert Research Institute
Gregg Garfin
Climate Assessment for the Southwest
University of Arizona
Holly Hartmann
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources
University of Arizona

2. Ultimate Objectives
$2B/year in federal fire suppression even if there’s no big event!!
Produce seasonal wildland fire potential outlook
Develop standard content and protocols
Improve use of climate products and forecasts
Encompass both process and product

3. Stakeholder-driven Climate Science/Services Research Process

4. Workshop goals Increase organizational capacity
Enhance multi-agency collaboration
Improve use of forecast information and climatological analyses
Transition results of research to an operational process for improved communication and decision making

5. Workshop participants
Fire weather meteorologists
Fuels specialists
Fire specialists
Fire management
Climatologists
50-60 participants last year (beyond committee size)

6. Geographic Area Coordination Centers

7. Seasonal Fire Outlook Content- it’s a package of items, not just a map
Executive summary
Introduction and objectives
Current conditions
Climate outlooks
Fire occurrence and resource outlooks
Future scenarios and probabilities
Management implications and concerns
Summary and recommendations

8. Monitoring of current climate conditions
Protocol/Needs
Monitoring of current climate conditions
Temperature/precipitation anomalies: mid & high elevations, complex terrain
Snow: complex terrain, departure from usual
ENSO:multiple definitions are an issue
Circulation: more upper air observations
Drought indices: multiple definitions (impact-based vs. hydro-based), soil moisture, scale

9. Monitoring of current fire & fuel conditions
Protocol/Needs
Monitoring of current fire & fuel conditions
Fire danger
Vegetation greenness:NDVI, land surface conditions
Fuel moisture: presently use algorithms, not in situ observations
Fire occurrence: data is abysmal
Fire behavior: highly local

10. Outlooks/forecasts/predictions
Protocol/Needs
Outlooks/forecasts/predictions
Relating episodic conditions to climate conditions, lightning, monsoon
Long-range temperature/precipitation
Circulation: synoptic patterns & CPC outlooks
ENSO
Drought forecasts
Soil moisture forecasts
Fire weather/danger indices

11. Future Scenarios
Fire Family Plus tool: historical review + analog weather generator
Priority sub-regions within Geographic Area: mortality areas  PJ dieoff, pine bark beetle
Fuel-type considerations: carryover fuel, effects of snowcover (e.g., on standing grass)
Climate considerations: 4-6 years ago + future
Season ending event probabilities: e.g., abrupt or slow evolution of cool/wet conditions
Focus on analogs: need ‘best practices’ guidance

12. Protocol/Final Product
Fire Outlooks
Seasonal fire occurrence/activity estimates
Estimates of expected resource needs: for suppression, prescribed burning, fire use (plans for letting natural fires burn).
Measure of Success
Will fire managers give up resources for other regions
If so, is it based on climate or fuels considerations?

13. Late Feb 2003

14. White area means we need more research, not that the forecast is for ‘normal’ conditions.

15. Colors indicate at some point during the period, not necessarily for the whole period.

17. Future of Product and Process
Post-mortems and verification:
how to verify shift in risk (fire potential), when the risk lacks good definition?
Evolution of product
Process continues to advance:
Community actually using climate outlooks in a formal process
NICC investing in training workshops for GACC meteorologists (information intermediaries). Will decision makers participate?