1. Aeronautical Decision Making (ADM)
What is ADM and why is it so important?
How can I apply ADM principles to my flying?

2. OBJECTIVES… Define ADM and discuss why it’s important.
List the steps needed for effective ADM and identify some dangerous tendencies to avoid including the “Five Hazardous Attitudes.”
Provide you some tools for assessing and managing risk including some commonly used FAA memory aids that frame the process.
Apply risk assessment skills to an actual scenario using a “Flight Risk Assessment Tool” or FRAT.
Discuss use of a personal minimums checklist.

3. ADM References
FAA-H “Pilot’s Handbook of Aeronautical Knowledge” –Chapter 2 (2016)
FAA-H “Risk Management Handbook”
FAA Advisory Circular – AC (2001) “Aeronautical Decision Making”
AOPA Air Safety Institute-Safety Advisor “Do the Right Thing-Decision Making for Pilots”

4. What is ADM?
“ADM is a systematic approach to the mental processes used by pilots to consistently determine the best course of action in response to a given set of circumstances.” (FAA PHAK) AOPA – “The goal of ADM is simple: doing the right thing at the right time” and “good decision making is about avoiding the circumstances that lead to really tough choices.”

5. Why is ADM important 28 questions in the FAA bank of test questions
ADM is the core emphasis of the new “Airman Certification Standards” (ACS)
80% (or more) of all aviation accidents have a root cause related to one or more human errors, most involving a mistake in judgement or decision making. No human is immune from error. An accident can happen to anyone.
ADM is absolutely essential for your survival.

6. What influences our decisions?
Our background or cultural values can drive up our risk tolerance or lead to “normalization of deviance.”

7. Our decisions may be driven by good and valid intentions to accomplish a goal.
Accidents often
happen to people who were doing what made perfect logical sense in a given circumstance or moment in time (Sidney Dekker)

9. Steps needed for effective ADM
Identify personal attitudes hazardous to safe flight (honest self assessment).
Learn behavior modification techniques (check your attitude and change your mindset).
Recognize and manage stress or external pressure
Use all available resources (CRM and SRM)
5. Evaluate the effectiveness of your ADM skills.

10. Dangerous Traps to Avoid
Peer Pressure (to meet passenger expectations)
“Get-there-itis”
Bad moods and mindsets (anger, frustration, impatience, being hurried, and other distractions)
Scud-running and VFR flight into IMC
Loss of positional or situational awareness
Flight with inadequate fuel reserves
Knowingly exceeding aircraft limitations or FARs
Poor flight planning, pre-flight, or use of checklists

11. Five Hazardous Attitudes (and the appropriate antidote)
Anti-Authority – follow the rules, there is a good reason for them, they are usually right.
Impulsivity – Not so fast, think about it first.
Invulnerability – It could happen to me.
Macho – Taking chances is foolish, not worth paying the ultimate price if it doesn’t work.
Resignation – I am not helpless, I can make a difference in the outcome. Be decisive.

12. Are my actions influenced by any of these hazardous attitudes?

13. Defining the terminology of RISK
A HAZARD is a real or perceived condition, event, or circumstance that has potential to inflict harm or cause damage, or a source of danger.
RISK is the future impact of a hazard if it is not reduced, eliminated, or controlled.
A Risk ASSESSMENT is a measure of risk based on the probability and the severity of each hazard.
(Refer to the four color matrix in these examples.)

14. How do I measure the risk associated with hazards like these?

15. To effectively assess risk….
Evaluate hazards at face value (pre-mitigation)
Base your assessment on your own personal knowledge, skill, and experience. If you don’t have the knowledge, ask an expert. (i.e. ask a mechanic about unfamiliar aircraft mechanical concerns.)
Avoid personal biases as much as possible.
Find objective middle ground that is neither overly optimistic nor “alarmist.”
DON’T OVER-ANALYZE numbers and definitions.

16. Example #1: Assess the Hazard “Mid-Air Collision”
Severity is almost always CATASTROPHIC Probability could vary from “occasional” to “remote” or “improbable” depending on circumstances such as the time and location of a flight and your own knowledge or experience. Using the risk assessment matrix we determine the overall RISK can be MEDIUM to HIGH.

17. Example #2: Hazard: Inadvertent VFR flight into IMC
Task: Assess the LIKELIHOOD and SEVERITY of this Hazard, and determine the OVERALL RISK RATING.
Your assessment will depend on these factors:
What kind of flight are you planning? (i.e. a cross country or landings in the local traffic pattern?)
Are you planning to fly in the daytime or at night?
What do the current weather reports and forecasts indicate? (Radar, Temp/Dew point, cloud ceilings and visibility at nearby airports, etc.)

18. Risk Controls and Mitigation
Using the Risk Management Worksheet, determine and document several mitigations to reduce the risk of “inadvertent VFR flight into IFR weather conditions.”
Then, reassess the expected probability and severity AFTER control measures are implemented.

19. Suggested Mitigations for Hazard “Inadvertent VFR flight into IMC”
Check weather reports and forecasts.
Establish and stick to personal minimums (examples...)
As a new pilot, on local daytime flights, I won’t fly unless visibility is reported as being at least 5 miles, and the ceiling greater than 2,000 ft. at HIO, UAO, and MMV.
For cross country flights or night flights, I will not go unless the ceiling is reported/forecast to remain at least 3000’ with visibility greater than 6 miles along my route, with a Temp/DP spread greater than 5 deg. Celsius
Identify alternate airports. Have a Plan B strategy for any flight in case conditions change.

20. Flight Risk Assessment
Consider and rate numerous hazards in each of the FOUR categories of the P.A.V.E. model.
Pilot
Aircraft
EnVironment
External factors
(Note: Some factors exist in multiple categories.)

21. PAVE Model: Pilot Start with the “IMSAFE” checklist, then consider:
Overall experience, currency, and proficiency
Skill in the expected environment and conditions
Experience in the aircraft make/model, configuration, systems, etc.
Personal level of confidence and overall tendency to accept or tolerate risk vs. approach life with conservative caution. (When does this cross the line and become a “hazardous attitude?”)
Effective Pilot assessment requires humble honesty

22. PAVE model: Aircraft Performance and capability (vs. conditions)
Complexity (vs. your skill and experience)
Weight and Balance
Fuel capacity (vs. fuel requirement for a flight)
Navigation and flight instruments, equipment, internal and external lighting (capability of the aircraft equipment and pilot using it.)
Aircraft condition, overall maintenance

23. PAVE model: enVironment
Weather: clouds, ceiling, visibility, stability, precipitation, temperature/dew point, surface wind and winds aloft, turbulence, DA, etc.
Physical environment: mountains, coastal, airport and runway characteristics and condition, wires and towers,, traffic congestion, cockpit noise, etc.
Airspace: FAA class of airspace, TFRs, NOTAMs, ATC services and requirements, etc.

24. PAVE model: External Factors
Pressure or expectations from passengers
Deadlines for arrival or return flight
Self-imposed pressure to perform to a standard, expectation, or requirement.
Home, family, life, financial, or job stress.
Physiological stress or demands.
Distractions, task workload, multi-tasking.
Underlying motivations behind the flight

25. FRAT practical exercise
Given a scenario, score each of the criteria shown using either the GAR or FRAT worksheet. Determine the overall risk level.
Assume you are a new Private Pilot and you are taking a 175 lb. friend to an airport on the Oregon coast as your first passenger in either the Cessna 150 or 172 (whichever you prefer) that you flew throughout your training.

26. Case Study: What happened?

27. What errors in ADM led to this?

28. NTSB Report WPR09CA193
Summary: Event date/time/location: Apr. 13, 2009, 3:10 pm; Location was near Dubois, WY.
Pilot crossed a mountain pass at AGL and encountered a strong downdraft in the vicinity of some cliffs. He attempted to maintain altitude with full power and 85 mph airspeed, but the aircraft continued to lose altitude. The 2 occupants suffered minor injuries.
NTSB probable cause: Pilot encountered windshear/downdraft that exceeded the climb performance capability of the airplane.
No findings of any mechanical deficiencies.
Density Altitude was calculated as being 9,200 ft. at the time and location of the accident.

29. PAVE category findings
Pilot: 32 yr. old male, Private pilot certificate, 120 total hours logged, 21 hours in the make/model, current class 3 medical certificate. VFR XC flight plan filed from Casper, WY to Idaho Falls, ID. Aircraft: Piper PA hp. Lycoming O-320 No information given on estimated aircraft weight or fuel qty. on board at the time of the accident, but neither fuel contamination or starvation were stated as factors. Environment: Nearest Airport (JAC) located 39 miles south at 6,145 ft. reported a Temp. of 7 deg. C. Wind 18 kts., ceiling 4,800 AGL. External (Human) Factors: nothing stated in report.

30. Final thoughts or Questions?