1. Using Agrometeorological Information for crop insurance in Malawi
21/09/2018
Using Agrometeorological Information for crop insurance in Malawi
Adams Chavula
Malawi Meteorological Services
PO Box 2, CHILEKA,
BLANTYRE, MALAWI
WMO/FAO Training Workshop on GIS and Remote Sensing Applications in Agricultural Meteorology for SADC Countries November 14 – 15, 2005, Gaborone, Botswana

2. OUTLINE Background Information
21/09/2018
OUTLINE
Background Information
Characteristics of weather based Yield Index
Data and Software Tools
Overall Methodology
Some Results
Things to do
Proposed products
Conclusions
21 September, 2018

3. BACKGROUND This is a World Bank Initiative
21/09/2018
BACKGROUND
This is a World Bank Initiative
The Agricultural and Rural Development Commodity Risk Management Group of World Bank collected daily rainfall data (1961 – 2000) for 13 stations from DoMS
World Bank developed a Malawi Maize Production Index (MMPI) as an underlying indicator for the Malawi's food security situation
This index turned out to be poorly linked with yields
The report was presented to FAO for comments and recommendations
FAO proposed use of tools in AgroMetShell (AMS) to develop an effective weather based index
FAO proposed a partnership agreement programme with DoMS
The agreement included a visit of an Agrometeorologist to FAO - Rome for three months to develop the index
21 September, 2018

4. Location of Malawi

5. Some Facts about Malawi
Divided into :
8 Agricultural Development Divisions (ADDs),
27 Rural Development Projects (RDPs)
154 Extension Planning Areas which are further divided into sections and blocks
Agriculture contribution:
- 85% of our people live in rural areas, most of whom depend on agriculture for a living;
- 98% of agriculture in Malawi is rain-fed and 2%under irrigation;
- 13% of the farmers use improved seeds (Hybrids and Open Pollinated Varieties, OPVs;
- Frequently affected by drought or dry spells
- Maize is the staple food crop grown throughout all the agricultural development divisions.
21 September, 2018

6. A desired weather- based yield index for crop insurance should be...
21/09/2018
A desired weather- based yield index for crop insurance should be...
available throughout the country
tamper-resistant: potential beneficiaries should not be able to manipulate the index;
objective: the methodology should be repeatable by anyone who has access to the basic weather data
well correlated with yields reported by agricultural statistics
robustness vis-à-vis missing data
agronomically sound
publicly available
21 September, 2018

7. Data and Software Tools
January to December dekadal (10-day period) data on Rainfall, Maximum and Minimum temperatures and Wind Speed, Sunshine hours Relative Humidity
Maize phenology data (planting, flowering, maturity)
Reference data such as soil Water Holding Capacity (WHC), Crop Phenology and Crop Cycle lengths.
Area (Ha) and yield (Kg per Ha) data for Maize by Extension Planning Area
National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dekadal images for Malawi country window
21 September, 2018

8. Software Tools New _LocClim – spatial interpolation
AgroMetShell (AMS) – Water balance calculations, spatial analysis, image calculations
IDA (WinDisp) – extraction of EPA values
Microsoft Office – Excel – Statistical analysis
21 September, 2018

9. CHOICE OF INTERPOLATION METHOD
YEAR_DEK
STATION BASED ERRORS ESTIMATES
GRID BASED ERROR ESTIMATES
ESTIMATED SPATIAL AVERAGE
BIAS
VARIANCE
RMS
SHEPARDS
2005_Feb1
(Dry)
1.779 mm
36.11 mm
36.16 mm
3.62 mm
37.28 mm
37.45 mm
58.21 mm
KRIGING
0.116 mm
33.31 mm
3.818mm
34.66 mm
34.87 mm
58.91 mm
2003_Jan1
(wet)
4.846 mm
100.8 mm
100.9 mm
2.352 mm
85.41 mm
85.44 mm
149.7 mm
2.301 mm
93.05 mm
93.08 mm
11.60 mm
81.10 mm
81.93 mm
153.7 mm
1990_Oct2
(dry)
0.008 mm
0.202 mm
-0.00 mm
0.146 mm
57.98 mm
0.005 mm
0.181 mm
0.145 mm
1990_Jul2
-0.02 mm
0.653 mm
0.062 mm
0.741 mm
0.744 mm
0.01 mm
0.636 mm
0.089 mm
0.712 mm
0.717 mm
1990_Dec3
-4.63 mm
34.37 mm
34.68 mm
-2.99 mm
38.45 mm
38.57 mm
-2.61 mm
35.36 mm
35.46 mm
-0.66 mm
38.20 mm
38.21 mm
61.17 mm
1994_May1
0.333 mm
0.334 mm
-0.05 mm
0.393 mm
0.398 mm
0.259 mm
-0.01 mm
0.396 mm
0.397 mm
-0.06 mm
0.486 mm
0.491 mm

10. Overall methodology (1)
21/09/2018
Overall methodology (1)
to reduce dependence of index from individual point weather data, gridding of 10-daily rainfall and of PET (46 stations with data between 1961 and 2005: 1100 “images”)
Development of simplified PET method to avoid problems with missing radiation data
Calibration of planting dates against actual EPA planting dates ( )
Calculation of water balance parameters with AgroMetShell
21 September, 2018

11. Elevation map with 46 weather stations
21/09/2018
Elevation map with 46 weather stations

12. Sample rain (left.) and PET (right.) grids for dekad 1 of January 2005
21/09/2018
Sample rain (left.) and PET (right.) grids for dekad 1 of January 2005

13. About the relevance of data from neighbouring countries...
21/09/2018
About the relevance of data from neighbouring countries...

14. Overall methodology (2)
21/09/2018
Overall methodology (2)
Water balance computed on 0.05 degree grid (3928 monitoring points)
Selection of explanatory variables through principal components analysis
Calibration against 1350 EPA yields between 1995 and 2005 (yields in Malawi display NO technology trend)
21 September, 2018

15. AMS:CREATING STATION LIST
21/09/2018
AMS:CREATING STATION LIST

16. AMS: value added output variables
21/09/2018
AMS: value added output variables

17. RESULTS Final regression equation for local maize 21 September, 2018
21/09/2018
RESULTS
Final regression equation for local maize
21 September, 2018

18. Definition of final forecasting variables
21/09/2018
Definition of final forecasting variables
Ycal(local)= *Yavg *DEFtot *WEXtot *ETAveg *DEFveg
21 September, 2018

19. Observed local maize Vs calculated (1995 to 2005)
21/09/2018
Observed local maize Vs calculated (1995 to 2005)
21 September, 2018

20. Average local maize yield (1995-2005)
21/09/2018
Average local maize yield ( )
21 September, 2018

21. Average local maize yield extracted from New_LocClim average yield map
21/09/2018
Average local maize yield extracted from New_LocClim average yield map
21 September, 2018

22. 21/09/2018
2005 yield index
21 September, 2018

23. 2005 yield index departure from expected value
21/09/2018
2005 yield index departure from expected value
21 September, 2018

24. 21/09/2018
Calculated 2005 yield index based on weather data Vs yield reported by ministry of agriculture
21 September, 2018

25. 21/09/2018
Difference
Average
2005 index
21 September, 2018

26. 21/09/2018
Area at risk of food insecurity Agricultural consumption year Source: FAO/WFP
21 September, 2018

27. Things to do (1) Calibration with (available) hybrid maize data
21/09/2018
Things to do (1)
Calibration with (available) hybrid maize data
Finalize description of methodology
Define specific indicators for crop insurance based on yield index (% of normal yield, yield threshold...)
21 September, 2018

28. 21/09/2018
Things to do (2)
Establish routine of Yield forecasting (10-day basis) at Malawi Meteorological Service
Regularly publish current yield indices in national agrometeorological bulletin
Make yield forecast and crop insurance indices available on
( website of Malawi Meteorological Service)
21 September, 2018

29. Proposed products above-below yield index threshold maps
21/09/2018
Proposed products
above-below yield index threshold maps
areas where current yield has a probability of exceedence of 70, 80 or 90 %
best planting dates, or expected yield as a function of the time of planting
calibration optimised to minimize false positives (good years assessed to be poor)
build in crop prices and derive probabilities of  "maize income maps"
21 September, 2018

30. 21/09/2018
Conclusions
The yield index satisfies all the desirable criteria for maize crop insurance in Malawi
First estimates of Index can be provided at planting time and updated in real time throughout the season
The index needs to be refined using criteria to be provided by insurance experts
More specific products for crop insurance can be prepared
21 September, 2018

31. THAT’S IT
Thank you
for your attention
21 September, 2018