1. CLIMATE INFORMATION FOR FOOD SECURITY: Responding to Users Climate Information Needs Milton M. Waiswa Senior Meteorologist Department of Meteorology, P.O. Box 7025 Kampala Uganda. Email: milton.waiswa@meteo-uganda.net Synthesis Workshop of the Advanced Institute on Climatic Variability and Food Security 9-10 May 2005, WMO, Geneva Switzerland By

2. Research Team MR. MILTON WAISWA, Senior Meteorologist Department of Meteorology, Kampala, Uganda. Dr. Jenipher Philips, Professor, Bard College, New York USA MR. PETER MULAMBA, Lecturer for Climatology), Faculty of Agriculture, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda MR. ISABIRYE PAUL, Principal Meteorologist Department of Meteorology, Kampala, Uganda. Research financially supported by START/IRI /Packard Foundation

3. What is the problem? Start of seasonal rainfall varies from year to year, either being early, in time or late

4. What is the current scientific solution Onset of wet seasonearlyNormallate Rainfall amountsabovenormalbelow End of seasonearlynormallate Expected features of a basic climate forecast on seasonal rains First question from a farmer When should we plant? When are rains beginning?

5. Current Rural Development Paradigm “ Providing farmers with needed climate information through linking indigenous and scientific climate knowledge systems.” “ building (Gorjestani 2000) on indigenous knowledge can be particularly effective in helping to reach the poor since indigenous knowledge is often the only asset they control, and certainly one with which they are very familiar”

6. Research Sites in Uganda

7. Characteristics of targeted farmers Agriculture in Developed World Subsistence Agriculture in Developing World(Uganda)

8. Objectives of Research Identify details of how farmers traditionally uses local temperatures and winds to forecast onset of first rains; Validate the indigenous rainfall indicators for onset of first rains Develop statistical models for forecasting of first rains

9. Methodology of Research Identification of usage was achieved through conducting individual and group surveys of farmers in Eastern (Tororo), Lake Victoria basin (Jinja), Central (Wakiso) and Western (Masindi) Uganda. Validation of indigenous rainfall indicators is based on the climate data from synoptic weather stations in the four regions. Model development was achieved by statistical linear regression of validated temperature indicators with rainfall onset dates formatted in pentads.

10. Sources of Data for Analysis The indigenous meteorological knowledge of farmers. In order to capture this data, a field survey was conducted using a questionnaire that interviewers used to ask farmers about their knowledge related to local meteorological issues. The second type of data was historical meteorological data acquired from the weather stations within the survey areas.

11. Results: Planting Time Indicators Apart from Tororo, the main criteria farmers in these regions, use to determine the right time for planting their crops is when the rains start, and following the calendar months (Table 3.2.1). At the onset of the rains, the farmers, wait for at least 2-3 showers then they consider planting their seeds. However the onset of rains should be within the expected months for planting. Determining the right planting time

12. Results: Indicators for onset of rains Major rainfall indicators farmers’ use to forecast onset of first rains (March-May) The main 5 rainfall indicators farmers use to forecast rains are winds, temperatures, clouds, birds and trees. The winds, temperatures and clouds are common atmospheric elements observed by both meteorologists and farmers. However meteorologists document their records on different mediums like paper and computer, which can felicitate follow up analysis.

13. Appearance of Indicators MonthMasindiWakisoJinjaTororo December232915 January4983334 February64494585 March64121860 Local Winds indicators The winds used for rainfall forecasts mostly appear in the month of February followed by March. At times the winds appear in December and January. This means that these indicators can be used to forecast onset of first rains using mainly the month of February

14. Appearance of indicators MonthMasindiWakisoJinjaTororo December260513 January51172320 February66514078 March46201655 Indicator: Local increase in temperatures The occurrence of these temperature conditions is mainly in the month of February. This suggests that the temperature conditions in February could be used to forecast onset of first rains.

15. Operational use of indicators The change of wind direction and speed, are important features, farmers use to forecast seasonal rains. During dry season the wind blow in a particular direction and as the rainfall season is about to begin, the wind direction changes.

16. Operational use of indicators How farmers use local temperatures The majority of farmers use the increase in temperatures during a dry season as signals for early onset of first rains

17. Which season is easier to forecast Rainfall Season Survey Sites MasindiWakisoJinjaTororo 1st season79719193 2nd season20816 Both seasons 141 The Table above reveals that the majority of farmers find it easier to forecast the first rains than the 2 nd seasonal rains.

18. Survey Summaries The direction and speed of winds at a point of time during the dry season are signals related to when the wet season is likely to start. The increase in local temperatures during a certain period of the dry season signals when the wet season is likely to start.

19. Summary Survey findings Farmers Interest% Know the right planting time36 Learn how to forecast rains22 Advise on rainfall forecasts14 Why changes in rainfall seasons7 Using rainfall forecasts3 Attend weather forecast seminars2 Farmers interests to learn from a meteorologist

20. Key Approaches for Validation. Format onset dates based on Julian Calendar Data setP 0.05P 0.001 300.3600.460 250.3900.500 200.4400.570 150.5100.640 100.6300.760 With limited Data set use high significant correlation values Use recent weather data(1990-2002)

21. Temperatures and onset dates Statistical relationship between historical onset dates with average 5 day temperatures of the dry season pre the first wet season(March- May)

22. Validation: Temperatures

23. Validation: Masindi Temperature

24. Validation: Wakiso Temperatures

25. Validation: Jinja Temperatures

26. Validation: Tororo Temperatures

27. Regression: Masindi 356 y = 16.297x - 393.673 Masindi linear model estimation ------------------------------------------ Multiple R 0.932 R Square0.869 Adjusted R Square0.853 Standard Error7.232

28. Regression: Namulonge 319 y = -10.425x + 353.115 Namulonge linear model estimation -------------------------------------------- Multiple R0.909 R Square0.827 Adjusted R Square0.805 Standard Error4.285

29. Regression: Jinja 307 y = 12.149x - 274.021 Jinja linear model estimation ----------------------------------------- Multiple R0.751 R Square0.563 Adjusted R Square0.509 Standard Error8.926

30. Regression: Tororo 7 y = 3.889x – 62.967 Tororo linear model estimation -------------------------------------- Multiple R0.723 R Square0.523 Adjusted R Square0.463 Standard Error7.452

31. Conclusion The above study reveals, the practices that farmers and meteorologist have in common in observing atmospheric conditions in pursuit to forecast seasonal rains for crop production. There are also differences in the way both farmers and meteorologists observe and range climate scenarios each group can forecast. The farmer’s effort of forecasting rains using their rainfall indicators highlights the importance of climate forecasts to them to ensure food security.

32. Conclusion The challenges farmers experience in producing and using climate forecasts is a development activity very critical needed by meteorologists to address. Through studying the indigenous climate knowledge systems, meteorologists can identify the priority climate information needed by farmers. While the farmers, can use the increasing temperature at night during the dry season, to forecast onset of first rains. The models may be used to forecast the onset of the first rains 2-3 months in advance compared to farmer's traditional methods of just a few days.

33. Recommendations Meteorologists practice using and improving on these forecasting models to provide farmers with additional climate forecasts related to onset dates of seasonal rains.

34. Recommendations Develop local specific models to forecast onset of seasonal rains using other indigenous rainfall indicators that are commonly observed by farmers and meteorologists.

35. Recommendations Replicate the research in other region beyond the equator region.

36. THE END THANK YOU