1. American Politics
October 30, 2006

2. Advantages of Two Party System
Stability
Multi-party democracy said to be unstable
Must form coalition governments
Evidence is that coalition governments are less stable than single party government
Illusion of Majority Rule
Accountability
“responsible party” thesis

3. Disadvantages with Having Only Two Parties
Normative concerns (what is lost)
Fairness
Should 50% of participating voters make govt.? Should incumbent parties draw districts?
Trust
If voters are not aligned with major party, and their vote is “wasted” on a third party, will they trust government?
Participation
Why show up if vote will be wasted?
US has one of the lowest rates of participation

4. How Could a Third US Party Form?
Institutional Change
Prospects slim for US Congress to act
State Legislatures
Citizen’s initiative
Major split in existing party
Rise of regional conflict

5. Voter Turnout U.S. turnout in comparative perspective
Lower for congressional elections than Presidential elections
Decline in voter turnout
How low is it? Does it matter?
The role of age and education

6. Turnout in Comparative Perspective
See also Table 6.1, p.140

7. The U.S. in Comparative Perspective
Source: Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES), Module 2, 2004

8. The Decline in Turnout

9. Why the decline?
Voting Rights Act removed barriers, ie. poll taxes, literacy tests, residency requirements
Socioeconomic change—increasingly affluent society
Change in political attitudes
Party mobilization

11. Role of Age and Education

12. Why is voter turnout so low?
Difficulty of registration
Lack of convenience
Early voting
Absentee voting
Vote by mail
Voter Attitudes
Electoral System
Changing demographics

13. Why then would anyone vote?
Voting is the most common form of political participation
Many people also talk about politics and try to persuade others to vote
Very few participate in any other specific way.

14. Presidential Nomination Process
How do we end up with these two candidates?
Selection process
primaries and caucuses
Importance of momentum

15. Who decides who the party nominee will be?
In the past, party activists made the decision at the national convention
Now (since the 1970s) voters decide through caucuses and primaries
These contests determine how many delegates a candidate receives.
The rules play a role in influencing what types of candidates will win

16. Caucus A meeting of candidate supporters
A meeting of candidate supporters
Democratic caucuses allow any registered Democratic to participate
Republican caucuses are less open; some limit participation to party officials and workers
Systems used include winner-take-all and PR

17. Primaries Elections to Decide Nominees Closed primaries Open primaries
Elections to Decide Nominees
Closed primaries
Only party members can vote
Open primaries
Any registered voter can select a party’s primary and vote in it

18. Schedule of 2004 Primaries

19. Shorter Primaries

20. Iowa and NH can help the Underdog
Underdogs (outsiders) have seen their support rise from an early win in Iowa and NH.
Carter in 1976 (up 12 percent)
Hart in 1984 (up 27 percent)
Tsongas in 1992 (up 26 percent)
Buchanan in 1996 (up 20 percent)
McCain in 2000 (up 15 percent)

21. Expectations in NH Source: NH Poll, American Research Group
Source: NH Poll, American Research Group

22. Voters in New Hampshire

23. Impact of New Hampshire Primary

24. Front loading 70% of all delegates are chosen before the end of March
70% of all delegates are chosen before the end of March
Benefits the front runner
Benefits the candidate who can raise the bulk of the money before the nomination process
Increases the importance of the “invisible primary”—the year prior to the official nomination season when candidates raise money

25. Why do early primaries play such a large role?
Importance of momentum
Those who are expected to win receive more news coverage and more contributions
This makes it easier for front runners to win and more difficult for followers to catch up.

26. Consequences
Carter was the only candidate to win the Iowa caucus and go on to win the nomination (prior to 2004)
In every year since 1980 the front-running candidate who led in the last poll conducted before Iowa still ended up winning the nomination.
Compact schedule (front loading) can kill the momentum from New Hampshire

27. Deck is stacked against outsiders, under dogs
Half of the Republican delegates awarded after the first six weeks.
News coverage and public interest fades shortly after the primary season begins

28. Example of the Consequences of Front-loading in 2000
1,034 delegates needed to win

29. Should Parties be Strengthened?
Current system weakens political parties
Voters have more say
Strong parties would:
Promote party discipline
Provision of a clear choice
Concentration of power in hands of winning party

30. How Can Parties be Strengthened?
Reform primary system
Closed primaries
Campaign Finance Reform
Allow soft money?
Limit contributions from interest groups…

31. Review
Nomination process
Consequences of front-loading
Party strength

32. Options for Electing the President
Congress chooses the president
State legislatures choose the president
President elected by popular vote
Electoral College

33. How it works
Each state was allocated a number of Electors equal to the number of U.S. Senators (always 2) plus the number of U.S. Representatives (which changes)
The manner of choosing the electors was left to the individual state legislators. By 1836 all states (except for South Carolina) choose electors by popular vote (plurality rules).
The person with a majority of electoral votes is elected president
In the event that no candidate wins a majority, the U.S. House of Representatives would choose from the top five contenders. Each state could cast only one vote. An absolute majority is required

34. Historical Curiosities
1800 Electors gave both Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr an equal number of votes. The tie was settled by the U.S. House.
Prompted the 12th Amendment which requires separate vote for president and vice president (rather than two votes for president with the runner up as the vice president)
1824. No candidate receives a majority. House decides John Quincy Adams despite the fact that Andrew Jackson had obtained more electoral votes.
1888 Benjamin Harrison defeats Grover Cleveland who received more votes

35. Past Elections
Link to maps of electoral college results ( )

36. 2000 Presidential Election

37. 2004 Presidential Election
Bush 234 Kerry 207

38. A Perfect Tie?

39. 2004 Presidential Election Results
Bush 286 EV (51%)/ Kerry 252 EV (48%)
270 EV needed to win
See results by state

40. Adjusting for State Population

41. Plurality Winners by County

42. Percentage of the vote for parties

43. The Florida Disaster Florida recount (link to Univ. of Chicago study)
Florida recount (link to Univ. of Chicago study)
The punch card voting system
Design of the palm beach ballot

44. Unequal Representation
Source: Robert A. Dahl, How Democratic is the American Constitution?

45. The Butterfly Ballot

46. Evidence of problems in Palm Beach

47. Reforming the Electoral College
Winner take all (by Congressional District)
Proportional Allocation of Electors by State
Amendment 36 in Colorado
Polls

48. Outcomes with Different Methods

49. Direct Election of the President
Runoff Elections
Alternative Vote/Preference Voting

50. Preference Voting
System is used to elect that nation’s House of Representatives from single member districts.
Voters rank their first most preferred candidate by marking a “1” their second most favored candidate with a “2” etc…
Candidate with the fewest first choices is eliminated and the ballots for those people who voted for him are examined to see whom they placed second.

51. Example Candidate A Candidate B Candidate C First round 41 43 15
Second round
56 (41+15)
eliminated

52. What would the outcome have been with Preference Voting