1. A Fishery Management Index:
Factors affecting fisheries management and stock status in major fishing countries
Mike Melnychuk 1, Emily Peterson 2, Matthew Elliot 2, Ray Hilborn 1
1 University of Washington
2 California Environmental Associates

2. Incredible diversity of fishery management systems
Multiple and sometimes conflicting objectives
Wide array of strategies and tactics used
Diverse regions, fishing fleets, and taxa
Historical, political, cultural & social factors

3. Characterizing a management system:
Expert surveys covering research, management, enforcement, and socioeconomic aspects
Aggregate simple 0/1 answers into overall ‘performance’ measure: Fisheries Management Index (FMI)
2 questions:
What external factors affect management performance?
Which specific management attributes affect stock status?

4. Research Management Enforcement Socioeconomics
objectives and fishery management plan
regulations to limit fishing pressure
capacity to adjust regulations and fishing pressure
landings data
body size or age data
surveys to monitor abundance trends
stock assessments
Enforcement
Socioeconomics
dockside monitoring & at-sea observers
penalties and compliance
protection of sensitive habitats
discarding and by-catch measures
controls on access and entry
transparency
community involvement
capacity-enhancing subsidies

5. Country-level fisheries management survey
28 countries
10 species per country (semi-randomized)
46 questions among 5 dimensions: `
Country X
Species 1
Species 2
Species 3
Species 4
Species 5
Species 6
Species 7
Species 8
Species 9
Species 10
Confidence level
Research …
Management 1
0.5 NA A B
Enforcement
Socioeconomics
Stock status

6. Average response
by dimension
FMI
n = 191 survey responses

7. What external factors affect management performance?
Which specific management attributes affect stock status?
Inputs
STATE
Outputs

8. Predictors of FMI considered
Country-level numerical covariates:
Absolute latitude
log EEZ area
log Coastline length / land area
log Seafood protein provision
log Coastal population
log Per-capita GDP
log Total catch
Current / maximum catch
% “nei” groups in FAO landings
log Seafood exports / imports
log “Good” subsidy index
log “Bad” subsidy index
geographic & economic
fishery-related
Respondent background expertise:
Government / management
Government / science
University
Fishing industry
Environmental NGO
External organization

9. Gov./mgmt.
Gov./sci.
Industry
Univ.
External
ENGO
n = 191 survey responses

10. What external factors affect management performance?
Which specific management attributes affect stock status?
Inputs
STATE
Outputs

11. Management attributes evaluated Qualitative stock status variables
Research:
Landings data
Body size and/or age data
Stock assessments
Surveys of abundance trends
Fisheries management plan
Fishing pressure limits
Capacity to adjust fishing pressure
Fisheries enforcement
Discarding and by-catch measures
Protection of sensitive habitats
Fishing access and entry controls
Transparency and involvement
Absence of ‘bad’ subsidies
Current abundance
Current fishing pressure
Trend in abundance
Trend in fishing pressure
Management:
Enforcement:
Socioeconomics:

12. n = 191 survey responses

13. Summary What external factors affect management performance?
per-capita GDP
capacity-enhancing subsidies
total catch
Which specific management attributes affect stock status?
comprehensiveness of stock assessments
strength of fishing pressure limits
level of enforcement

14. Merci beaucoup: 182 people or groups for completing expert surveys
NCEAS SNAP working group for feedback
Funding: David and Lucile Packard Foundation

16. Overall country FMI
value by respondent
n = 191 survey responses

17. Residuals of logit(FMI value)
FMI residuals after
accounting for
per-capita GDP M
Residuals of logit(FMI value)

18. FMI n = 191 survey responses Research Management Enforcement Socio-
economics
FMI
Stock status
n = 191
survey
responses

19. Stock status 101: biomass and fishing
mortality relative to target reference points
Overfished
Overfishing
F/FMSY
What is the current status of US stocks?
B/BMSY

20. Potential biomass, catch, and profit increases from
Fisheries
Management
Index
Potential biomass, catch,
and profit increases from
modelled fishery reforms
645 ‘stocks’
all country : species entities
4713 ‘stocks’
397 actual stocks (RAM Legacy)
4312 FAO area : species entities
4 FAO SOFIA stocks
pooled species by country
(28 countries)
pooled stocks by primary country
subset of same 28 countries
Melnychuk et al. in review
Costello et al. 2016, PNAS

21. Fishery reform predicted changes vs. FMI
% change, 2050 RBFM relative to today
FMI
Costello et al PNAS / Melnychuk et al. in review

22. Policy evaluations rights-based fisheries management FMSY Business-
as-usual
Costello et al. 2016, PNAS

23. Fishery reform predicted changes vs. FMI
% change, 2050 RBFM relative to 2050 BAU
FMI
Costello et al PNAS / Melnychuk et al. in review