1. Welcome to Stockholm Resilience Centre – Research for Governance of Social-Ecological Systems Reclaiming leadership in fisheries January 18, 2012 Dr Henrik Österblom Stockholm Resilience Centre

2. We used to be on top of the game Images from Wikipedia

3. Now, we have lost the initiative

4. Fishing Pressure Stock size Limit below which stock is too small Limit above which fishing is to intensive USAEU Data: RAM legacy website, courtesy of Dr Ray Hilborn

5. Images from NMFS

6. Sustained overcapacity Maintained Subsidies DECISIONS Focusing on short-term economic and social goals over long-term sustainability A We are trapped in social- ecological feedbacks!

7. Sustained overcapacity Maintained Subsidies Decreased quality of stock assessment Unsustainable quotas EVIDENCE Reduced Scientific legitimacy DECISIONS Focusing on short-term economic and social goals over long-term sustainability Depleted stocks A B We are trapped in social- ecological feedbacks!

8. Sustained overcapacity Reduced Catch rates Maintained Subsidies COMPLIANCE Increased incentives to cheat and reduced cooperation with science Decreased quality of stock assessment Unsustainable quotas EVIDENCE Reduced Scientific legitimacy DECISIONS Focusing on short-term economic and social goals over long-term sustainability Depleted stocks Reduced Profitability A B C Österblom et al. 2011 Marine Policy

9. Can we learn from the US? “Best practice project”: Dec 2008-April 2009 Literature reviews Interviews and workshops with industry, NGO and policy makers in US, Canada and Norway Workshops with European stakeholder Report and Scientific publication Mike Sissenwine, David Symes, Katarina Veem, Tim Daw, Martina Kadin and H.Österblom

10. Findings Evidence Decision making Compliance

11. Findings - evidence Clear and trusted science Integrated, ecosystem assessments –Regional science centres Independent, transparent peer-review of science Technology and incentives to provide data –VMS, video, reduce uncertainty Industry funded data collection –Observers, cost recovery schemes Stimulate co-learning processes –Collaborative research Österblom et al. 2011 Marine Policy

12. Findings – decision making Clear rules and guidelines for decision making Ecology first! Regionalization with industry and NGO participation –Regional fisheries management councils responsible for developing operational management –Proposed management plans subject to approval by NMFS (federal agency) Transparent decision making process Österblom et al. 2011 Marine Policy

13. Findings - compliance Discard ban (Norway and Canada) Clear incentives for industry –Certification, user rights, reducing overcapacity Strong compliance mechanisms and enforcement Supply chain tracking –Enabled by elaborate inter-agency (coast guard, customs, police, fisheries agency, tax authority) cooperation Legitimacy of decisions through participation Österblom et al. 2011 Marine Policy

14. Will stocks recover with perfect, science, decisions and compliance? Cod stocks of Newfoundland showing signs of recovery Baltic cod stock showing signs of recovery ….after > 20 years…. Social and ecological time lags.. Regime shifts Climate dependent… Emphasize the need to use to available ability to influence the dynamics of stocks

15. Regionalization, how will it improve the knowledge base? Facilitate cooperation in existing scientific networks Further build trust between diverse interests in RACs Perform integrated assessments across scientific disciplines Perform collaborative research projects with stakeholders Link fisheries science with ecology, natural scientists with social scientists, scientists with stakeholders

16. Combine fisheries science and ecology for integrated advice – policy coherence with MSFD Cury et al. 2011 Science

17. Regionalization, decision making and compliance Devolve technical aspects to the regions, member states and fishing industry Define principles, standards, goals and objectives at the EU-level Delegate the translation of principles into management plans to member states collaborating at the regional level This can improve compliance and legitimacy!

18. Suggestions for regaining the initiative Ecology first Clear guidelines for decision making Clear rules for implementation A regional approach necessary to take different social-ecological context in to account Give industry room to implement Ensure transparency and coherent enforcement –but.. Expect non-linear change and time lags!

19. Thank you! Henrik.osterblom@stockholmresilience.su.se