1. Psychology of Thinking
Dr Ross Goutcher

2. Overview Thinking in ‘pictures’, thinking in symbols
Deductive Reasoning
Heuristics
Framing effects

3. What is ‘Thinking’?
Cognitive Psychologists interested in the nature of thought
Understand the mind/brain as working like a computer – it’s involved in information processing
Sets of Mental States referred to as Representations
Transformations and associations between those states
Not what you are thinking, but how you are thinking!

4. Thinking in ‘Pictures’
One type of thinking involves visualising objects, ideas or other ‘things’
Call this mental imagery, or an analogical representation
Like the thing, but isn’t the thing
Can be visual, or non-visual (earworm)
These kinds of representations allow us to make perceptual comparisons between things over extended times
Seem to behave like real objects

5. Rotating mental ‘Pictures’

6. Mental Maps

7. Thinking in ‘Pictures’
Mental pictures use the same parts of the brain as actual sensory perception
Visual cortex activated when you imagine
TMS (a tool for disrupting brain activity) disrupts mental imagery when applied to visual cortex
Like a picture, but not a picture
Try to hear a song in your head; now start it from a different point; you have to cycle through the song to get to the new point

8. Thinking in Symbols
Capacity to think beyond perceptual judgements depends upon organisation of sensory information in terms of concepts
Refer to these as symbolic representations
Objects and things can be stored as sets of properties, categories and relations between them

9. Concepts
FLY
DUCK
BIRD
POND
SWAN
BAT

10. Categorising Concepts
Comparing abstract properties allows for a different – non- perceptual – kind of judgement
Use these properties to judge appropriate categories.
2 ideas
Compare to a prototype
Compare to multiple exemplars
Let’s look at the idea of a ‘dog’ …

11. Categorising Concepts

12. Categorising Concepts

13. Deductive Reasoning
Symbolic representations allow us to apply rules and make reasoned decisions
Is some object part of one category or another?
Rules help define our categories and we can test our object against those rules – help us find out whether the rule is valid.
Rules work as a series of If …, then … statements

14. U 4 M 3 Deductive Reasoning
If a card has a vowel on one side, it must have an even number on the other side.

15. Deductive Reasoning Most people turn over the U
Some choose to turn over the 4
What would you choose in the following example?

16. If a customer is drinking alcohol, they must be over 18.
Deductive Reasoning
Irn Bru
Beer 32 16
If a customer is drinking alcohol, they must be over 18.

17. Confirmation Bias
When we make reasoned decisions we tend to look to confirm a rule, rather than refute it.
We may even incorrectly apply deductive logic to make erroneous confirmations.
We are less susceptible to this when given a context where refutation is expected

18. Confirmation Bias

19. Confirmation Bias
How can I prove that a treatment is effective, or safe?
If you start by assuming that your idea is correct, then look for evidence to confirm it, it’s likely you’ll never be convinced you’re wrong.
Have to start by assuming there is no effect, and show evidence to the contrary.
Important for scientific method – we stop talking about truth and falsehood, instead talk about “evidence to support …”

20. Confirmation Bias

21. Confirmation Bias

22. Confirmation Bias

23. Heuristics Deductive reasoning isn’t always appropriate
Sometimes rules are a bit fuzzy – things happen sometimes, but not always
These are probabilistic rules
When working with probabilities it can sometimes be very difficult to work out the correct answer – takes too long, too many alternatives
In these circumstances we can apply heuristics

24. Heuristics Heuristics are rules of thumb
If they are appropriately considered, heuristics will tend to give a good enough answer
Not guaranteed to give the right answer
Can be a fast and simple way of making a difficult decision

25. Availability Heuristic
I want to watch a film this evening …
Not reasonable to consider every film ever made.
Not even reasonable to go through every film on Netflix
Might go through categories – types of film I like
Might think of films I remember being available

26. Availability Heuristic
John Kingston
Judy Finnegan
Jennifer Aniston
Emma Watson
Agatha Christie
Thomas Hughes
Nikki Minaj
Tilda Swinton
Michael Thompson
Jane Austen
Harry Laing
Sam Smith
Richard Banks
Julia Roberts
Jack Lindsay
Hilary Clinton
Will Hutchinson
Jennifer Lawrence
Ian Carter
Arthur Hill
Brian Leslie
Kylie Minogue

27. Availability Heuristic
Likely outcomes are the ones that are easiest to remember
Brain assumes that if it’s easy to remember, it’s a more frequent occurrence
We can (and just did) trick this heuristic by manipulating memorability
Same in the real world – fear of flying

28. Representativeness Heuristic
The following are example descriptions from a sample of 70 engineers and 30 lawyers:
Jack enjoys reading books on social and political issues. He displays particular skills at argument.
Tom enjoys working on mathematical puzzles and tends to like being on his own.
Harry is intelligent and an avid squash player. He is very well spoken and asks insightful questions.

29. Representativeness Heuristic
Jane is 36, single, intelligent and outspoken. She studied sociology at university and is deeply concerned with issues of equality and social justice. She regularly attends political demonstrations and is a member of an anti-nuclear organisation.
Jane works in a bank
Jane works in a bank and is an active radical feminist

30. Representativeness Heuristic
When we seek to categorize, we extrapolate from known members of a category.
We hold each member of a category as being representative of that category.
How do we decide what is representative of a category?
Experience – both direct and indirect
Problem – what happens if my experience is limited?
Overgeneralise
Rely on small samples
Availability of cases from memory

31. Framing Effects
You have booked, and paid for, a weekend away with friends. Prior to the trip, the weather forecast predicts violent storms, and you have an argument with your friends. The weekend has already cost you £200.
Do you …
… go on the trip anyway?
… spend the weekend at home with your feet up?

32. Framing Effects
An outbreak of a serious flu is estimated to kill 600 people per without treatment. There are two options:
Treatment A: “200 people will be saved”
Treatment B: “33% chance no one will die, and 66% chance all 600 will die”

33. Framing Effects
An outbreak of a serious flu is estimated to kill 600 people per without treatment. There are two options:
Treatment A: “400 people will die”
Treatment B: “33% chance no one will die, and 66% chance all 600 will die”

34. Framing Effects Which do you think is a more effective strategy?
Penalty for late registration
Discount for early registration

35. Framing Effects

36. So what have we learned?
Thinking can be conceived of as processes carried out on sets of representations
Representations can be picture-like or symbolic, allowing for both perceptual and logical judgements
Often make errors in reasoning – seek to confirm rather than refute
Decisions about probabilistic problems biased by availability in memory, representativeness and framing effects

37. Questions
What is thinking? What different kinds of ‘thought’ are there?
Where do people make errors in deductive reasoning?
Can you think of any strategies to help avoid these mistakes?
What is a heuristic?
Can you think of any real world examples where heuristics are used?
How might heuristic reasoning, confirmation bias and framing effects have negative social consequences?