1. Australia and the region
Indonesia, PNG and East Timor

2. Indonesia

3. Indonesia the facts A Malay people – Indonesian a recent construct
253 million people of whom 57% live in Java. 4th largest in the world. 8 Million Chinese
400 ethnic tribes.
World’s largest Muslim country. Bali is Hindu
17,000 islands
Tropical monsoon climate (wet from December to March)
5,400 km across from West to East, Australia – 4030 kms
There are over 150 volcanoes in Indonesia.
The name “Indonesia” is derived from the Latin word Indus meaning “Indian” and the Greek word nesos meaning “island.” 
Obama spent part of his childhood there – was nicknamed “Barry” at school”

4. History
Separate clans and kingdoms until Islamic traders arrive in the 16th Century.
Followed by Portuguese based in the Moluccas
Followed by the Dutch late 16th C based in Java.
Dutch forced cash crops instead of subsistence
1912 – Islamic Association – first nationalists
Communists split from SI to form the PKI.
1927 – Indonesia Nationalist Party (PNI) created. Communists suppressed. Most PNI finish up in Dutch jails.
Under Dutch control from late 16th Century until independence.
Occupied by Japan from 1942 – 1945
Gained independence from the Dutch in 1949

5. Over time

6. The war years Japan and the greater East Asian co-prosperity sphere
Remaining Dutch jailed in camps.
White supremacy notion shattered which encouraged nationalism.
Japanese brutal but prepared an Indonesian elite to fight the Dutch upon their return. A turning point?
Gave Indonesian nationalists a platform for their ideas and provided weapons and training

7. The Japanese period
Japan occupation first entered Indonesia in 1942 until its end on 1945, though since 1898 many immigrant from Japan have entered Indonesia, most of them are sailor. During its occupation, Indonesia had been introduced into several knowledge and application of education and agriculture, even though these were introduced and shared in purpose to gain sympathy from Indonesia and prolong the colonialism.  As a normal social effect of war and colonialism, Nikkei, as the descendant of Japanese – Indonesia have even joined with Indonesia in gaining the independence.

8. Post War
1945 – 49 Dutch return and conflict with nationalists resumes. Dutch police actions of spark world condemnation. Australia supports Indonesia against the Dutch and later sponsor their entry into the UN.
1949 – Dutch hand over Indonesia but not West Papua (Irian Jaya) because it was culturally Melanesian. Sukarno President from 1949 – Charismatic but no economist.

9. Early dealings with Australia
Australia takes Dutch police action to Security Council.
Indonesia picks us to act on its behalf in the UN
Changes in 1949 with the election of Menzies who is pro Dutch and supports keeping the European powers in the area as a stabilising force. Menzies feared the rise of the PKI and saw the region through the prism of The Cold War.
Economic instability – Cost of Living Index under Sukarno rose from 100 in 1958 to 60,000 in Nationalised Dutch assets and drove away foreign investment. No regards for the public purse
Sukarno erratic – 1957 – 1959 – Guided democracy – consensus managed by enlightened leader (him) – worked at village level but not nationally.

10. The Sukarno years
Sukarno suspends parliament in 1960 – “Guided democracy” begins. Gives him a freer hand to quell separatist movements in the outer islands.
Indonesia gains West Papua in 1963 the same year that Malaysia was formed.
“Crush Malaysia” campaign started – also called “Confrontation”. Sukarno saw Malaysia as a British proxy in the region and looked to lead the world’s anti colonial forces – Bandung conference Another distraction like the West Irian campaign?
Britain and Australia pledged to defend the new Malaysia – a “pantomime war” that went on until 1966.
Had to balance the Army against the PKI who made up 1/3rd of his cabinet. Leaning too much towards Peking?
1965 – Left wing coup that failed. Massacre of 87,000 to 2 million “communist PKI members” mainly Chinese. Coloured Australian perceptions towards Indonesia for decades.
1966 – Sukarno resigns and dealings with Malaysia normalised. Dies in 1970.

11. Sukarno with Fidel 1960

12. What happened in 1965?
One third of Sukarno Cabinet PKI oriented to Peking.
Sukarno’s fifth force to be equipped by Peking and his to control.
Failed take over by part of the military. 6 Generals killed but Suharto survives.
Army and vigilantes massacre of between 500,000 and 1 million, communists, alleged leftists or ethnic Chinese. Over 1 million imprisoned.
CIA handed over lists of communists to the death squads.
Upheavals led to downfall of Sukarno and three decades of Suharto
Widodo refuses to apologise – skipped over in the history books.

13. Suharto

14. Suharto and the new order
Survived the failed coup.
Peace and stability – co-operation rather than confrontation
Improving relations with Japan and the US as well as the rest of the neighbourhood
Emphasis on development and technology ( the national car – the airline industry
1967 – ASEAN formed – Indonesia a key player
Relations with China cut off from 1976 to Deeply suspicious of China over its role in the events of 1965 and its influence of local Chinese. Half supported Vietnam in its 1979 war with China.
Indonesia, like Australia, very concerned about instability towards its north
Both believe in the Domino Theory.

15. ASEAN

16. 1998 and economic collapse
Suharto’s new order collapses after the Asian Economic collapse of 1997.
Corruption, nepotism and fraud come to the surface as economy fails. Pertamina was forced to import and export its oil through two Suharto-family trading companies, which charged up to 35 cents a barrel for the service - $6bn lost. Tommy and the national car made in Korea.
Suharto removed and replaced by B J Habibie in 1998 and who was then replaced by Wahid in 1999.
1999 – East Timor votes for Independence. Interfet moves in to stop killings. Massive Indonesian resentment.
2001 – 2004 Megawati Sukarnoputri becomes President
2002 – Bali bombings. Howard – Indonesians soft on terrorism?
2003 – Anti separatist campaign in Aceh
2004 – 2014 – President Yudhoyono
President Joko Widodo –

17. The Presidents

18. Indonesia’s concerns - separatism
Regional separatism. Irian Jaya – West Irian. Irian an acronym for “ikut republik Indonesia anti Netherlands”
Irian Jaya and the Free Papua Movement (OPM). Kin with their Melanesian brothers in PNG?
Transmigration of Indonesians to separatist areas. Moving people from high to low population density areas. Resentment against Javanese “outsiders”
Aceh another trouble spot until recently. Resisted the Dutch and the Indonesians. Free Aceh movement (GAM)
East Timor – invaded by Indonesian forces in Concerned that East Timor might let out foreign bases on Indonesia's door step. A potential Cuba?

19. Irritants in our relationship with Indonesia
Relationship always fragile at best.
Schapelle Corby and Indonesian judges. Chan and Sukamaran executions.
Refugee boast turn back policy – Indonesian sovereignty? Bribing boats to turn back?
Beef cattle ban
Australian diplomacy seen as confrontational – not the Indonesian way? “Megaphone” diplomacy.
2013 – we bugged Yudyohono’s phone
By 2030 Indonesia will be the world’s 10th largest economy with a GDP double ours.
Boats, beef and Bali – are we engaged enough with our giant neighbour?

20. The major irritant – young tourists?

21. Other irritants
The Bali boycott after the deaths of Chan and Sukumaran.
Barbed comments about the Indonesian judicial system
Abbot’s “we gave you Tsunami aid” comments - coins for Abbot campaign in Indonesia.
Terrorism – how seriously did the Indonesians prosecute JI after the Bali bombing?
The deaths of the Balibo 5 in East Timor in 1975
Australia giving asylum to OPM rebels in 2006.
Slow down of Australian investment in Indonesia after the 97 – economic downturn in Asia.
Defence co-operation fiasco over whether West Irian should be independent material. Now resolved after Widodo visit

22. And internal problems for Indonesia
Only 11% of Indonesians pay tax – a fear of government mismanagement?
Jokowi consolidating leadership but has made so many compromises he looks hedged in like the others _ Indonesia’s Turnbull?
Lack of access to International credit.
Poor infrastructure.
High price of staples like rice.
Protectionist – a problem in an ASEAN Free Trade Zone?
Growth of fundamentalism – mass rallies against Chinese Christian governor of Jakarta Ahok
We need a stable, united Indonesia and will turn a blind eye to many things in order to achieve that.
Morality in International Affairs and Geography?

23. East Timor
Claimed by both Portugal and Holland since the 16th Century.
Finally settled in 1914 with Holland getting West Timor and Portugal East Timor.
1974 Portugal elects a socialist government who does not want to be seen as a colonial power. So it disposes of East Timor along with Angola and Mozambique in Africa.
Timor is Malay for East”

24. East Timor
Timorese strongly supported our troops left behind there in WW2.
Groups competing for power in East Timor – UDT ( stay with Portugal), Fretilin (leftwing group favouring immediate independence) and APODETI Favouring integration with Indonesia.
Fretilin the largest group wins and declares independence which they have for a full month.
Fretilin flees to the bush where they wage a guerrilla war for the next 23 years. 100,000 Timorese died in the process.
Did Whitlam agree to Indonesian invasion of East Timor? Australia seen as untrustworthy by Indonesia over “back flip”.
Australia out to break up Indonesia according to the Indonesians!

25. East Timor
Portugal kept the issue of Timor’s independence alive in the UN as did the local Catholic church in Dili. Santa Cruz church massacre.
US forces Habibie to hold a referendum on independence
US threatened to withhold IMF money if he did not do so.
80% voted for independence – outrages Indonesian militia who go on a killing rampage.
Australia leads Interfet force into Dili to stop the violence.
2001 – New government signs it first deal – The Timor Gap oil and Gas Treaty with Australia. Based on a border agreed with Indonesia but not East Timor.
2002 – it becomes the newest state of the 21st century.

26. The Timor Gap treaty -
East Timor desperately needs the money from oil and gas.
Australia bugged ET government offices during negotiations.
Australia refuses to sign a permanent boundary treaty –argues for the way it is for the next 50 years.
ET takes it to UNCLOS but Australia says it will not be bound by its ruling. Withdrew from UNCLOS Remind you of anyone?
Two fields already dry – Greater Sunrise gas field is in ET waters. $40bn worth.

27. Papua New Guinea (PNG) Gained Independence in 1975.
4.5 Million people who speak over 700 languages
Very mountainous – poor roads – reliant on air transport.
Little sense of being a nation – chief loyalty to clan or tribe.– very little party discipline and little policy coherence.
Heavily reliant on aid.
Crime and corruption endemic.
Port Moresby least liveable city – 70% unemployment/ high levels of crime.

28. PNG - background
Portugal named it Papua in the 6th Century. Spanish added New Guinea because it reminded them of Equatorial Africa.
1828 – Dutch arrive in the West
1884 _ Germany annexed North eastern New guineas where their traders were.
Britain acquired South Eastern part at the insistence of the Queens land Government.
1919 – North Eastern (German) part handed over to Australia as part of a League of Nations mandate.
In 1942 PNG is where the Japanese Army ground to a halt just short of Port Moresby.
1973 – Border settled with Australian govt to be at the 141st Meridian with a kink for the Fly River.

29. PNG Traditionally relied on agriculture.
1972 – Bougainville copper mine opened.
1984 – OK Tedi mine opened near Irian Jaya border making mining the mainstay of the economy providing 70% of its export revenue - 25% comes from coffee, fish and timber.
Government recruits Sandline mercenaries to invade the island massacre involving Australian helicopters given as aid.
Bougainvilleans objected to the mines threat to their environment and their way of life. Many killed before a ceasefire in 1998.
PNG in trouble now that the resources boom has ended.
Exxon/Mobil $19bn Gas plant. Govt borrows on anticipation of greater revenues that don’t eventuate.

30. Mining – damage in the Fly and Sepik river systems

31. PNG
In 2015, 21% growth rate predicted but oil prices fell end of 2014 and the money spent before revenue came in.
40% of its 7.5 million people live on subsistence agriculture. More effort needed there rather than on large energy projects?
O’Neill the new Mugabe? – refugees across the Torres Strait?
2016 – students protest over corruption charges against O’Neil who orders police to start shooting.
New elections in June this year (2017) – can anyone make the tough decisions or speak out against the government?

32. PNG and Indonesia
Problems on the 750 km border. Poorly defined and refugee camps on the PNG side used by OPM
Is Irian Jaya potentially the next East Timor? Is Indonesia making the same mistakes there? Indonesians won’t forgive a second attack on their sovereignty.
Indonesian incursions into PNG chasing OPM.
PNG Defence forces not up to the task? 2,500 troops. To be doubled?
Porous border – locals shop in Jayapura for cheap goods money the PNG govt is missing out on.
Rampant logging is destroying the world 3rd largest rainforest. Neither side seems to care. Forest fires in West Irian a grave concern.
Neighbours complain about the yearly smoke haze that covers Malaysia and Singapore.

33. Free Papua Movement (OPM)

34. Which means

35. PNG – A failed state?
PNG – a failed state and we have to pick up the pieces?
Kina now 5 levels below junk bond status. Even if it could borrow money it would be prohibitively expensive.
It cannot raise money overseas and its cheques are bouncing. It is looking for a bail out
IMF saved them twice in the 1990s.
We provide half a billion in aid but much is lost due to corruption however we don’t say anything because we need their good will to house our refugees on Manus.
PNG PM O’Neill supports court decision to close Manus.
O’Neill has support of 80 out of 109 reps in the parliament – so no opposition or much change.

36. A failed state part 2
O’Neill launches anti corruption probe after he is elected in 2012 and gets caught up in it himself to the tune of $30 million – so he defunds the commission. Locks offices and bribes the judge.
Plan to buy out small to medium businesses and replace them with indigenous owners.
Cuts to health programmes – very scary. Global hot spot for multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (9000 dead in last three years) and a short boat ride away from us. Not a Mediterranean crossing.
Queensland a hop step and a jump away.
More of a problem for us than Syria is. We need to support their institutions or we will have to pick up the pieces.
O’Neil survives no confidence motion 85 – 21 despite massive strikes by pilots, transport workers, doctors and nurses over budget cuts – academic year still cancelled.

37. Manus Island

38. Australia and PNG – the refugee question
98% of men on Manus have been found to be genuine refugees most Muslims from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan total on Manus and Nauru.
Manus to close – deal with the US? US already screening refugees but here is no timeline in place. Women and Children given priority.
Deal with Malaysia imminent?
Lifetime visa ban for those who arrive by boat.
Government rejects deal to resettle refugees in New Zealand.
Nepalese and Bangladeshi refugees offered up to $25,000 to return home or face deportation amid fears US deal may fall through. Germany offers $1275 (2000 Euros)
Off shore processing - $10 billion in the last 3 years?

39. PNG – not in our backyard anymore?
$19 billion deal with Exxon – less reliant on our aid?
Wants to join ASEAN – a move away from us?
Chinese interest – timber and LNG to China – loans in return.
Loans used to develop Lae port and roads, Broadband network and ID card system.
Interest on loans now $20 million pa. Power cut off to Parliament and Governor General’s residence because of $US300,000 bill.
Australia extra $77 million this year for 2018 APEC security but can we compete with China?
Manus Island is unconstitutional shows a willingness to push back against Australia.

40. Radar coverage up north

41. Our northern Security
Border with PNG starts at Saibai island in Torres strait 4kms from PNG mainland.
More come through Christmas Island but Torres Strait is poorly policed.
Surveillance Australia has contract till 2020 with 10 Dash 8s – fling from Broome to Cairns.
High altitude long range drones coming into operation.
Jindalee? JORN? Range 4000 – 5000kms land and sea traffic as well as stealth.
US base in Darwin – who is paying for the toilets?
Bare bones base in the North just bare? Scherger, Curtin and Learmonth. F18s at Tindal and Richmond.

42. Recent events
Military ties restored – important for Indonesia as it sends hundreds of officers here for training
Issue arose over students asked to write essay on Independence for West Irian. Topic - “Papua should have independence because it is part of Melanesia.”
Indonesia sees Australian support for East Timor as part of an oil grab.
Some in the Indonesian military sees officer training as recruitment of spies.
US troops in Darwin seen not as a means to contain China but to threaten Indonesian interests.

43. The flags

44. Reading list