1. Chapter 19 - Global Change

2. Global Change Not needed in notes
Global change - any chemical, biological or physical property change of the planet. Examples include cold temperatures causing ice ages.
Global climate change - changes in the climate of the Earth.
“Global warming” – just one aspect of climate change: the warming of the oceans, land masses and atmosphere of the Earth.
Global change includes a wide variety of factors that are changing over time.
Global climate change refers to those factors that affect the average weather in an area of Earth.
Global warming refers to changes in temperature in an area.

3. The Greenhouse Effect
Absorption of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases and re-radiation of the energy back toward Earth.
When radiation from the sun hits the atmosphere, 1/3 is reflected back to space.
Some of the UV radiation is absorbed by the ozone layer. The part that reaches the Earth is converted into low-energy infrared radiation.
The infrared radiation then goes back toward the atmosphere where it is “trapped” or absorbed by greenhouse gasses that radiate most of it back to the Earth.

4. Greenhouse Gases Water vapor Carbon dioxide Methane Nitrous oxide
Start taking Notes…
Greenhouse Gases
Water vapor
Carbon dioxide
Methane
Nitrous oxide
Ozone
Leave plenty of room for notes on each of these gases. I would recommend about 2-3 lines per topic.

5. Greenhouse warming potential: An estimate of how much a molecule of any compound can contribute to global warming over a period of 100 years - relative to a molecule of CO2
Most abundant “greenhouse gas”, but least warming potential
Check for updates
These are a fraction of the ppm, but many times greater warming potential:
Not actually a “greenhouse gas”, but what effect does it have?

6. Natural Greenhouse Gases
Some greenhouse gases are produced from natural sources:
Volcanic eruptions - mainly CO2
Methane – from decomposition and digestion
Nitrous oxide - from denitrification
Water vapor – from evaporation and evapotranspiration

7. Anthropogenic Causes of Greenhouse Gases
Greenhouse gasses produced by human activity:
Burning of fossil fuels
Deforestation
Agriculture practices
Livestock
Landfills (decomposition)
Industrial production (e.g. CFC’s)

8. The Greenhouse Effect Not needed in notes
Anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases
Not needed in notes
Human activities are a major contributor of greenhouse gases including CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide. These activities include the use of fossil fuels, agricultural practices, the creation of landfills, and the industrial production of new greenhouse gases.

9. Anthropogenic Causes of Greenhouse Gases
(Just add sources to your list of GHGs)
The largest contributions of methane in the atmosphere arise from gut bacteria that help many livestock species digest plant matter, landfills that experience decomposition in low-oxygen environments, and the production, storage, and transport of natural gas and petroleum products from which methane escapes.
(b) The largest contributions of nitrous oxide in the atmosphere arise from the agricultural soils that obtain nitrogen from applied fertilizers, combustion, and industrial production of fertilizers and other products.
(c) Nearly all anthropogenic CO2 emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels.

10. Comparing Emissions from the Developed vs Developing World
Not needed in notes
Comparing Emissions from the Developed vs Developing World
How or why did China
get way down there?

11. Increasing CO2 Concentrations
Not needed in notes
Increasing CO2 Concentrations
Rising steadily since measurements began in 1958

12. Global Temperatures since 1880
Not needed in notes
Global Temperatures since 1880
Since 1880 temperatures have increased 0.8°C
Changes in average global temperatures over time…
Although annual mean temperatures can vary from year to year, temperatures have exhibited a slow increase from 1880 to present day.

13. Changes in mean annual temperature in different regions of the world.
Not needed in notes
In 2010, some regions became cooler, some regions had no temperature change, and the northern latitudes became substantially warmer than the long term average temperature.

14. Temperatures and Greenhouse Gas Concentrations in Past 400,000 Years!
Using a variety of indirect indicators including air bubbles trapped in ancient ice cores, scientists have found that for more than 400,000 years CO2 concentrations never exceeded 300 ppm. After 1950, CO2 concentrations have sharply increased to their current level of over 400 ppm.

15. Not needed in notes
Historic temperature and CO2 concentrations. Ice cores used to estimate historic temperatures and CO2 concentrations indicate that the two factors move together.

16. Not needed in notes Predicted increase in global temperatures by 2100.
The predictions depend on whether we expect
(a) low,
(b) moderate, or
(c) high increases
in how much CO2 the world emits during the current century.
These changes in temperature are relative to the mean (average) temperatures from 1961 to 1990.
Not needed in notes

17. Putting It Together Not needed in notes
We know that an increase in CO2, methane and other GHGs in the atmosphere causes a greater capacity for warming through the greenhouse effect.
When the Earth experiences higher temperatures, the oceans warm and cannot contain as much gas and, as a result, they release more CO2 and methane into the atmosphere.
(ie. “positive feedback loop”)

18. Feedbacks Not needed in notes
can increase or decrease the impact of climate change

19. Consequences to the Environment Because of Global Warming
Melting of polar ice caps, Greenland and Antarctica
Melting of many glaciers around the world
Melting of permafrost
Rising of sea levels (due to the melting of glaciers and ice sheets and as water warms it expands)
Heat waves & Cold spells
Change in precipitation patterns
Increasing in storm intensity
Shift in ocean currents
At least write the
ones in yellow

20. The Effects of Global Climate Change
Just write this…
The Effects of Global Climate Change
The melting polar ice cap.
Because northern latitudes have experienced the greatest amount of global warming, the extent of the ice cap near the North Pole has been declining over the past 3 decades. The polar ice cap reaches its minimum late in the summer of each year, so we can look for a trend by examining the extent of ice each September. From 1979 to 2013, the polar ice declined an average of 14% per decade.

21. The Effects of Global Climate Change
Declining ice in Antarctica and Greenland. Measurements of ice mass from 2002 to 2013 have detected decline in both (a) Antarctica and (b) Greenland.

22. Rising Seas
According to NASA, sea level has risen by 2.4 inches since 2000. 
A recent study found that at least eight islands in the Pacific Ocean have already disappeared due to rising sea levels. 
Forbes.com 9/9/2017 

23. Consequences to Living Organisms
Wild plants and animals can be affected
The growing season for plants has changed and animals have the potential to be harmed if they can’t move to better climates – (affecting seasons for migration).
Corals are particularly sensitive to global warming because their range of temperature tolerance is quite small.
Humans may have to relocate  “Climate Refugees”
Diseases (esp. those carried by mosquitoes) are increasing
Plus many economic consequences:
Healthcare / Medical Insurance
Agriculture – loss of food supply
Structural Damage - Corrosion

24. The Controversy of Climate Change
The fundamental basis of climate change - that greenhouse gas concentrations are increasing and that this will lead to global warming is not in dispute among the vast majority of scientists.
What is unclear is how much world temperatures will increase for a given change in greenhouse gases, because that depends on the different feedback loops.

26. The Kyoto Protocol
In 1997, representatives of the nations of the world went to Kyoto, Japan to discuss how best to control the emissions contributing to global warming.
The world’s first agreement to set a goal to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases from all industrialized countries by 5.2% below their 1990 levels by 2012.
Although the United States signed the original Kyoto Protocol, the U.S. Congress never “ratified” the agreement and the protocol has never been legally binding on the United States.
In 2005 mayors from 141 U.S. cities and both major political parties gathered in San Francisco to organize their own efforts to reduce the causes and consequences of global warming.

27.
COP1 Berlin 1995
The first Conference of the Parties was marked by uncertainty as to which means the individual countries possessed to combat greenhouse gas emissions. This resulted in “The Berlin Mandate”, which set a two-year analysis and evaluation phase. This phase was to result in a catalogue of instruments from which the member countries could choose and thereby compose a set of initiatives that matched their needs.
COP2 Geneva 1996
The second Conference of the Parties endorsed the results of the IPCC’s second assessment report, which came out in At this conference it was established that member countries would not pursue uniform solutions. Each country should have the freedom to find the solutions that were most relevant to its own situation. At the Geneva conference the parties also expressed a wish for binding targets to be defined in the medium-term future.
COP3 Kyoto 1997
At this conference the Kyoto Protocol was adopted after intense negotiations. For the first time the protocol introduced binding targets for greenhouse gas emissions in 37 industrialized countries from 2008 to Subsequently there were several years of uncertainty as to whether a sufficient number of countries would ratify the treaty, but on 16 February 2005 it came into force. Several of the member countries of the UNFCCC have not ratified the Kyoto Protocol and do not acknowledge its requirements regarding emissions.
COP4 Buenos Aires 1998
At this conference it became clear that there were several outstanding questions regarding the Kyoto Protocol. A two-year period was therefore scheduled to clarify and develop tools for implementing the Kyoto Protocol.
COP5 Bonn 1999
This conference was dominated by technical discussions concerning mechanisms under the Kyoto Protocol.
COP6 The Hague 2000
COP6 Bonn 2001
COP7 Marrakesh 2001
COP8 Delhi 2002
COP9 Milan 2003
COP10 Buenos Aires 2004
COP11/CMP1 Montreal 2005
COP12/CMP2 Nairobi 2006
COP13/CMP3 Bali 2007
COP14/CMP4 Poznan 2008
COP15 Copenhagen 2009
COP16 Cancun 2010
COP17 Durban 2011
COP18 Doha 2012
COP19 Warsaw 2013
COP20 Lima 2014
COP21 Paris 2015
The Paris Agreement - for the first time in history, all nations agreed to a common cause based on their historic, current and future responsibilities.

28. Carbon Sequestration
An approach to stabilizing greenhouse gases by removing CO2 from of the atmosphere.
Some methods include storing carbon in agricultural soils or retiring agricultural land and allowing it to become pasture or forest.
Researchers are looking at cost-effective ways of capturing CO2 from the air, from coal-burning power stations, and from other emission sources.
This captured CO2 would be compressed and pumped into abandoned oil wells or the deep ocean.

30. Carbon Credits
a permit that allows a country or industrial company to produce a certain amount of carbon emissions and that can be traded if the full allowance is not used.
(Issues & Decisions: Permit to Pollute)