1. of Land and Natural Resource Conflict
Sequencing activities in complex integrated conflict-sensitive programming
Presenter: Jay Singh
Treasure, Turf and Turmoil: The Dirty Dynamics
of Land and Natural Resource Conflict
June 2011

2. What is sequencing? Getting started in program or activity design
Identifying outcomes
desired
Considering initial interventions
that are feasible and mutually reinforcing
Ordering interventions so that necessary conditions are in place for interventions to succeed
There is no blueprint for success: every context, and every program is different, and conditions change
However by following a logical process we can identify the most effective sequences
Note: Multiple interventions are typically undertaken simultaneously

3. Sequencing steps
Use assessments and conceptual model to visualize relationships among factors
Identify broad outcomes desired, specific localities and populations
Consider entry points
Flag enabling conditions
As an iterative (responsive/participatory) process, develop more specific interventions

4. Questions to guide sequencing
Governance Gaps:
Are there important institutional/technical gaps or weaknesses?
Are there critical legal and/or policy needs?
Operational/Technical Gaps:
Are there informational barriers? Transparency, evidence, common definitions/constructs…
What are the human and structural capacity gaps?
Special Considerations:
How do issues sort across time: immediate, near, medium and long-term?
What are the flash points (actual and latent)?
What are the Agency comparative/strategic advantages and limitations: legitimacy, know-how, resources?

5. What are enabling conditions?
Formal and informal policies,
regulations
Institutional capacity and social
capital
Market variables
Socio-political stability
Link specific actions that address proximate drivers/threats/conflicts to strategies for addressing enabling conditions
Brainstorming and other non-linear and open-ended approaches
Conflict Equation and other conflict analysis tools
ENRM tools, including stakeholder analysis
LTPR matrix
Conceptual mapping in order to put some of these elements together
In a complex situation involving environmental change, risks of conflict and disputed property rights, various tools should be used to identify enabling conditions and the interventions necessary to meet them

6. Tools for a sequencing strategy
A theory of change
Key outcomes
A menu of possible interventions
How outcomes and interventions
are linked (mutual reinforcing)
Priorities and parameters (USAID and external)
Scenario planning using your conceptual model
Scope: a general description of what the intervention involves;
Timing: when the intervention would be launched;
Duration: how long it will need to be in place to achieve its desired outcomes
Outcomes should reference any interventions that they will provide enabling conditions for.

7. Sequencing lessons
Peace and Stability. If a minimum degree of social harmony is not assured, it may be very difficult to achieve positive outcomes. This should be addressed first.
Process is key. A transparent and inclusive process is critical to success.
Good Governance. A degree of functional governance (formal or informal) is a prerequisite.
Efforts to create or stimulate markets for land or natural resources should wait until other key objectives are fulfilled (equitable access to land, reducing vulnerability to resource scarcities, etc).

8. Sequencing lessons
Team will need to draw heavily on the Integrated Assessment to ensure attention to drivers, enabling conditions
Adaptability is key
Flexibility should be built into all aspects
Stakeholders should be included in all stages of program design and implementation
Adaptability: Sequencing may have to change in response to dynamic conditions on the ground
Flexibility should be built into all aspects contracting/assistance mechanisms, workplan timing, recruitment, procurement
Stakeholders should be included in all stages of program design and implementation to ensure buy-in and avoid surprises

9. Sequencing: practical experiences
Do you have experiences
with sequencing
that you would like
to share?
Do you have experiences with sequencing that you would like to share?
The following presentation provides a real example of how multi-sectoral efforts have been sequenced.
After the presentation, we will conduct a sequencing exercise so that you can try out some of these approaches