1. A Virtual Earth Model of the Dementias in China
Presented by
Professor Andrew Georgiou
Macquarie University
AUSTRALIA

2. Contents Introduction Population Ageing in China
The Dementias in China
Geographic Analysis
Spatial Visualisation
Discussion
Conclusion

3. Introduction Population ageing is an increasingly global concern
It is affecting countries across the whole development spectrum
China has the largest population of any single state
That population is ageing rapidly, especially from 2025 onwards
The dementias are an important element of this ageing pattern
Dementia is closely linked to other chronic, high-care scenarios including overlapping physical and cognitive disability
The health and social care requirements/costs of an ageing population will rise dramatically, demographic dynamics and composition matter
Interventional possibilities will become increasingly important – medical and non-medical (lifestyle, education etc.)
An improved health informatics will be key to managing the impact and societal effects of population ageing at this order of magnitude

5. Ageing Composition in China - Older and Oldest Old

6. Epidemiology of the Dementias in China
By 2050 nearing 400 million people aged 65+
Major growth in the oldest old, most prone to dementias and other neurodegenerative conditions
Growing research base on ageing in China e.g. China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARL)
Dementia prevalence variations by geography – mainly urban/rural split at present
Female versus male life expectancies and social implications for care
Changing educational patterns and attainment
Rural/urban variations and population movements – tier 1-3 cities, internal migration etc.

7. PubMed Search: Dementia China (2017)

8. Age-Cohort Dementia and AD Rates from Chan et al (2013) The Lancet

9. Major Dementia Sub-Types - Top 10 County Estimates 2010

10. Population Aged 65+ by County 2010 Census

11. Dementia Estimation by County 2010 Census

12. Dementia Data Transferred into Google Earth

13. 3D Visualisation of Dementia Data

14. Sub-Type Visualisation – Alzheimer's Estimate by County

15. AD Graphical Data in Combination with County Geography

16. Discussion
Limitations include point-in-time data set, dementia rates by age-cohort only etc.
Provides a developmental basis for spatial visualisation of major population-based health conditions across large geographies and populations
Scale issue better addressed than in standard cartography (zoom in/out, pan and tilt etc.)
Can add other data (demography, health, infrastructure) and geography (village, township, county, prefecture, province)
China’s investment in geoscience is already significant, health informatics can parallel those developments – e.g. Digital Earth Society in Beijing
Makes complex scenarios accessible to a large audience from differing technical backgrounds (informatics, clinical, administrative, financial etc.)

17. Conclusion
Population ageing is a complex and, we suggest, non-linear process – changes will occur (e.g. dementia rates rise/fall, morbidity/mortality compression)
Scale of China’s ageing is and will remain a care and resource challenge
Population ageing is a truly spatial phenomenon – see previous slides!
Visualisation supports multi-system strategies and interventions
Complexity management increasingly important to sustainability
China’s spatial science commitment is well-established
Health informatics can, we propose, better integrate its agenda through use of spatial data strategies and tools
A key step towards better management of population ageing and its inevitable consequences