1. Human Impacts and Responses
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2. Impacts are most severe for:
Under-resourced areas and high poverty populations
Areas that will experience more severe changes
A National Academies of Science report focusing on responding to climate change addresses the inequity inherent in climate change impacts in that those who are most impacted will have the most difficulty adapting:
Climate change will affect ecosystems and human systems—such as agricultural, transportation, and health infrastructure—in ways we are only beginning to understand… In general, the larger and faster the changes in climate are, the more difficult it will be for human and natural systems to adapt. Unfortunately, the regions that will be most severely affected are often the regions that are the least able to adapt. (National Academies of Science [NAS], 2008, p ).
This disparity in responsibility for and adaptability to a changing climate make it ultimately a social justice issue, with implications far outside the scientific community (e.g. Thomas & Twyman, 2005). This is a concern of international efforts that recognize the “common but differentiated responsibilities” of developed and industrialized countries in the creation and implementation of global policy to reduce carbon emissions ("Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework," 1998).
Health, extreme weather, drought (resources), flooding, extreme heat, agriculture, tourism and the economy
Climate refugees
HOWEVER this holds true even in the US
High poverty populations, even in prosperous areas
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Health Impacts
Climate change may negatively affect health through:
More extreme heat events and heat exhaustion
Fewer water resources or contaminated water
Spread and persistence of diseases such as malaria
Cold weather kills mosquitos; malaria may spread into African highland regions where it has not previously been seen because mosquitos will be able to live at higher altitudes as the weather warms
Higher pollen counts and increasingly poor air quality making asthma and allergies worse
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4. Projected Increase in Global Temperatures
Summers in warmer than warmest on record
By the end of the 21st century, it will be much hotter everywhere
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5. Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security
Increasing temperature over the next 50 years will cause decreases in yield:
Decrease in grain ripening
Decrease in spikelet fertility (not as many seeds formed)
Increased water stress
Increased respiration
Important for all crops, but especially for wheat, rice, soybeans, and corn
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6. Decreasing Wheat Yields due to Climate Change
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7. Mitigation and Adaption
Addressing climate change requires both mitigation and adaption strategies:
Mitigation:
Reducing emissions
Stabilizing CO2 concentrations
Stabilizing temperature/climate
Adaptation:
Preparing for and responding to changes that occur
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8. Where does energy come from and what does it produce?

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Carbon Footprint
The best estimate of the total climate change impacts of something
Direct emissions:
Emissions from burning of fossil fuels
Driving a car
Indirect emissions:
Everything else
Mining materials
Manufacturing
Transport to retailers
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10. Some Carbon Footprint Rankings
Moderate cell phone use (per year) – 47 kg CO2e
10 pounds of trash – 3.1 kg CO2e
Beef cheeseburger – 2.5 kg CO2e
Pint of beer – 500g CO2e
Bottle of water – 200g CO2e
Cycling a mile – 100g CO2e
Banana – 80g CO2e
Walking through a door – 10g CO2e
A web search – 2g CO2e
Forest fire – 100 million tons CO2e*
Having a child – 700 tons CO2e
2.5 acres deforestation – 500 tons CO2e
New car – 17 tons CO2e
Airplane flight (LA to Spain) – 4.6 tons CO2e
New computer – 720 kg CO2e
Road trip (SF to LA) – 500 Kg CO2e
Light on for a year – 400 kg CO2e
$100 of groceries – 62 kg CO2e
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*CO2e, or carbon dioxide equivalent, is a way of expressing all of the different greenhouse gases as a single number

11. History of International Climate Change Treaties
United Nations Conference on the Environment and Development (UNCED)—the “Earth Summit”
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, June 1992
Resulted in a treaty known as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Annual meetings of the UNFCCC parties are called Conferences of the Parties (COP)
Kyoto protocol was negotiated at COP 3 in 1997
Copenhagen was COP 15 in 2009
Cancun was COP 16 in 2010
Durban was COP 17 in 2011
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Rio Declaration 1992
Precautionary Principle
“Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.”
Principle of Equity
“The right to development must be fulfilled so as to equitably meet developmental and environmental needs of present and future generations.”
“All States and all people shall cooperate in the essential task of eradicating poverty as an indispensable requirement for sustainable development...”
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Rio Declaration 1992
Common but Differentiated Responsibilities
“The parties agreed that:
1) the largest share of historical and current global emissions of greenhouse gases originated in developed countries
2) per capita emissions in developing countries are still relatively low
3) the share of global emissions originating in developing countries will grow to meet social and development needs.”
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Is Kyoto Working?
Sort of:
It varies significantly from country to country.
This chart shows 2007 relative to 1990 (positive means emissions increased; does not include LULUCF: Land Use, Land use change and forestry change)
Source:
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15. Tackling the Climate Problem with Existing Technologies
Stabilization Wedges
Tackling the Climate Problem with Existing Technologies
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This presentation is based on the “Stabilization Wedges” concept first presented in
"Stabilization Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the next 50 Years with Current Technologies,” S. Pacala and R. Socolow, Science, August 13, 2004.
Carbon Mitigation Initiative, Princeton University 15

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Historical Emissions
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16
Historical
emissions 8
We have consistent historical data for carbon emissions for the last 50 years.
1950
2000
2050
2100
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17. Stabilization Triangle
The Stabilization Triangle
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16
Current path = “ramp”
Stabilization Triangle
Interim Goal
Historical
emissions 8
Flat path
If business continues as usual we can project the same path for the next 50 years. Our interim goal is stabilize our rate of emissions so they don’t increase every year. This results in a triangle shape representing all the cumulative carbon that is added above a flat path. A flat path assumes no increase in rate, carbon would still be added. Eventually the goal would be decrease emissions.
1.6
1950
2000
2050
2100
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18. Stabilization Triangle
The Stabilization Triangle
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year
Easier CO2 target 16
Current path = “ramp”
~850 ppm
Stabilization Triangle
Interim Goal
Historical
emissions 8
Flat path
Tougher CO2 target
~500 ppm
The scenarios would result in levels between 500 and 850 parts per million of carbon dioxide.
1.6
1950
2000
2050
2100
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Stabilization Wedges
Billions of Tons Carbon Emitted per Year 16
Current path = “ramp”
16 GtC/y
Eight “wedges”
Goal: In 50 years, same
global emissions as today
Historical
emissions 8
Flat path
The triangle is divided into 8 wedges, reflecting different actions to reduce emissions.
1.6
1950
2000
2050
2100
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What is a Wedge?
A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows from 0 to 1.0 GtC/yr. in 50 years. The strategy has already been used successfully somewhere in the world.
1 GtC/yr
Total = 25 Gigatons carbon
The area of the wedge reflects all the carbon dioxide that is not emitted over the 50 time frame, building up to a savings of 1 gigaton per year.
50 years
Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This means $2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC.
A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.
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21. Fossil Fuel-Based Strategies Renewables & Biostorage
There are 15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories
Energy Efficiency
& Conservation
Fossil Fuel-Based Strategies
Stabilization
Stabilization
Triangle
Triangle
Renewables & Biostorage
2010
2060
Nuclear Power
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Image Sources
Slide 2 Images: CHC Flow Chart: Wheat Yield Graphs: Temp Increase Maps: Kyoto Data:
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