1. Hazards Planning and Risk Management DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT
LECTURE NO. 4
DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT
FALL 2017
US – Pakistan Center for Advanced Studies in Water

2. Learning Objective
After the completion of this lecture, students will be able to learn
Disaster Risk Management and its historical context
Disaster Risk Management cycle –old and new concepts

3. Disaster Risk Management
DRM
Fig source:

4. Disaster Risk Management
Risk management involves the implementation of the identified risk reduction strategies
The systematic process of using administrative directives, organizations, and operational skills and capacities to implement strategies, policies and improved coping capacities in order to lessen the adverse impacts of hazards and the possibility of a disaster
Decision Support Systems to help decision makers whether to accept, reduce or minimize the identified risks by the implementation strategies

5. The Historical Context
We do not realize the value of emergency management until we have a major disaster in our community
The current disaster prone environment we live in, has increased potential of floods, earthquakes, cyclones, hurricanes, wildfire and terrorist attacks (Agree or not?)

6. Historical Context: Early History
Has ancient roots
Whenever there were disasters, individuals and communities tried to do something about them
But organized attempts at dealing with disasters did not occur until much later in modern history
At different time in history the concept of disaster management have been applied differently
Reference: George D. Haddow, Jane A. Bullock and Damon P. Coppola 6

7. The Historical Context
Emergency management was once all about response to disaster and social and economic recovery
Now it also focuses on risk analysis and disaster reduction and mitigation
Disaster management is now a proactive and multidisciplinary approach
We discussed in the first class about the multidisciplinary nature of DRM – anyone recall please?

8. Disasters are Increasing Worldwide?
Why?
Increase in vulnerability
Factors leading to higher number of hazardous events

9. DISCUSS

10. Discuss!!!
Westen Guide Book
Hard red line: economic losses in absolute terms (billion dollars) and Red dotted line: economic losses in relative terms (% of GDP)
Gross domestic product (GDP) refers to the market value of all final goods and services produced within a country in a given period
Red dotted line: economic losses in relative terms (% of GDP)

11. Increased Vulnerability
Factors:
Rapid increase of the world population
Large urbanization rate (related to the population pressure)
Human settlements on areas that are susceptible to natural hazards (related to the population pressure)
Most of the world population lives in the hazardous regions, either in coastal zones, or in seismically active regions
Development of highly sensitive technologies and the growing susceptibility of modern industrial societies to breakdowns in their infrastructure
Developing countries with lower insurance coverage
Westen Guidebook 01
Also see reading 1 ENGR301

12. Frequency of Destructive Events
Related to atmospheric extremes are increasing
Climate change is negatively related with the occurrence of natural disasters
Source: Westen Guidebook 01
The frequency of destructive events related to atmospheric extremes (such as floods, drought, cyclones, and landslides) is also increasing

13. Risk Reduction
There are 3 major components to be considered in disaster management (Hazard, Vulnerability and Capacity)
Therefore, disaster risk can be reduced through systematic efforts of
reducing hazard exposure,
lessening vulnerability and
developing greater capacity to face these disasters
Capacity of people/community and environment

14. Determinant of Risk Examples? 5 elements of a community
People
Property
Services
Livelihood
Environment
Each of the above has specific vulnerability to specific hazard
Source: 14

15. Risk Assessment and Analysis
What is at Risk? – consequence of Hazards
Personal Injury
Destruction of property
Poor building material and maintenance
Damage local economy
Opportunity Loss: diversion of economic resources to recovery efforts

16. Purpose of Risk Analysis
To plan for public safety by developing
Hazard reduction plans
Vulnerability reduction plans
Emergency Preparedness plans
Can you explain with examples what should be included in above 3 types of plans?

17. Dr. Westen’s notes

18. Risk Analysis Steps Identify a Hazard
Identify the communities exposed to that hazard
Predict the consequences or impact of the hazard on communities exposed
Determine the vulnerabilities of the 5 elements of these communities
Identify the capacities of the communities to respond to that hazard 19

19. Risk Assessment Methodology
Both Qualitative and Quantitative
Various computer based models
Risk assessment outcomes depend on quality and availability of data

21. Hazard Risk Assessment
Process by which threat posed by each identified hazard is investigated
Risk depends on Hazard likelihood and hazard consequences
The above 2 factors are constantly changing as a result of changing environment
High-likelihood/high-consequence hazards are of special consideration
A comprehensive Risk Management Program can greatly reduce life and property losses

22. Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability indices
Vulnerability curves
Fragility curves
Vulnerability table:

23. Vulnerability Curve

24. Risk and Vulnerability Index/indicators
Various indices defined by
World Bank Hotspot
UNDP Disaster Risk Index
World Economic Forum Environmental Sustainability Indicators
International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) World Disaster Reports
CRED (Center for Research and Epidemiology of Disasters
More…..
Vulnerability indices based on indicators of vulnerability; mostly no direct relation with the different hazard intensities.

26. Risk Curve
Source: ITC

28. Source: Cees Van Westen, ITC

29. Disaster Management: New Concepts
Source: Dr. Cees Westen notes (ITC) 30

30. Disaster Management Cycle

31. Disaster Management Phases
Mitigation—Taking sustained actions to reduce or eliminate long-term risk to people and property from hazards and their effects.
Preparedness—Building the emergency management function to respond effectively to, and recover from, any hazard.
Source:
[1] William L. Waugh, Jr. Living with Hazards, Dealing with Disasters: An Introduction to Emergency Management. Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 2000.

32. Disaster Management Phases
Response—Conducting emergency operations to save lives and property by taking action to reduce the hazard to acceptable levels (or eliminate it entirely); evacuating potential victims; providing food, water, shelter, and medical care to those in need; and restoring critical public services
Recovery—Rebuilding communities so that individuals, businesses, and governments can function on their own, return to normal life, and protect against future hazards
Source:
[1] William L. Waugh, Jr. Living with Hazards, Dealing with Disasters: An Introduction to Emergency Management. Armonk, New York: M.E. Sharpe, 2000.

33. Disaster Management Cycle
Critical Phases, Related Activities and Timing
Phase
Time
Mitigation
Building codes and hazard/risk zoning, vulnerability analysis, public education
Activities that reduce the effects of disaster before disaster
Preparedness
vulnerability analysis, pre-disaster planning, preparedness plans, warning systems
Activities prior to a disaster
Response
emergency operations and relief activities, search and rescue, damage assessment
Activities during a disaster
Recovery
early recovery (temporary houses), claims processing and grants, medical care and counseling, rehabilitation, reconstruction, post disaster planning
Activities following a disaster
Source: Remote sensing for hazard monitoring and disaster assessment: marine and coastal applications in the Mediterranean region and other sources.

34. 4 Phases

35. Recent Changes

36. Disaster Management Cycle

37. Risk Management: Key Elements
at least one example of each element???
Source: World Bank and USAID

38. Spectrum of Disaster Management Actions

39. Disaster Risk Management – climate change adaptability
Source:

40. Disaster Management, Disaster Risk Reduction, and Risk Transfer
Risk transfer refers to
the process of formally or informally shifting the financial consequences
of particular risks from one party to another, whereby a household,
community, enterprise, or state authority will obtain resources from
the other party after a disaster occurs, in exchange for ongoing or
compensatory social or financial benefits provided to that other party.
Disaster risk transfer mechanisms comprise a component of both disaster
management and disaster risk reduction. In the former case, financial
provision is made to face up to the impacts and consequences of disaster
once this materializes. In the latter case, the adequate use of insurance
premiums, for example, can promote and encourage the use of disaster
risk reduction measures in the insured elements.
Source:

41. Reading Assignment Read before next class
Introduction to International Disaster Management By Damon P. Coppola, Third Edition 2015 
Chapter 1 & 2 (available at wordpress)

42. Discussion/Comment/Question