1. 6th International Scientific Conference
on Energy and Climate Change
9-11 October 2013, Athens (Hellas)
PROJECT: Knowledge Transfer and Research Needs for Preparing Mitigation / Adaptation Policy Portfolios (Contract No )
Development and assessment of Mitigation/ Adaptation Climate Change policy portfolios for Armenia
Dr. Vahan Sargsyan
Energy Strategy Center of
Scientific Research Institute of Energy

2. Content Introduction Climate change policy mixtures
Future opportunities

3. Introduction

4. Scientific Research Institute of Energy Energy Strategy Center
Scientific Research Institute of Energy (SRIE) as an independent organization has been established in 1961
In 1998 under the TACIS support the Energy Strategy Center (ESC) has been established as the branch of SRIE
ESC assists the RA Government in the field of:
Energy sector strategy and policy development,
Energy efficiency, Energy saving implementation and Renewable energy development issues,
Energy balance elaboration,
National Communications on Climate Change (Energy part) preparation, etc.

5. PROMITHEAS–4 Conference: “Development and assessment of Mitigation and Adaptation Climate Change policy portfolios for Armenia”
Representatives from:
Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources of RA
EU Delegation
Ambassador of Greece in Armenia
NKUA-KEPA
UNFCCC National Focal Point
UNDP Climate Change Program
USAID
Asian Development Bank
Alliance to Save Energy
UNDP-GEF
Armenia R2E2 Fund
…and other
“Oval” Hall Golden Tulip Yerevan Hotel Yerevan, Armenia 23rd of May 2013

6. Intorduction Team composition: Name Position Responsibility
Dr. Vahan Sargsyan
Director of Energy Strategy Center
 Project Manager
Dr. Eduard Karapoghosyan
Scientific Researcher
Examination of obtained results and drafting summaries
Ms. Karine Sargsyan
Leading Engineer
LEAP, AMS modeling & runs, draft report preparation
Mr. Hrant Gnuni
Junior Researcher
Preliminary analysis of information
Mr. Levon Harutyunyan
Engineer
Data collection
Mr. Harutyun Grigoryan
Engineer-Translator
Report & references translation

7. Climate Change Policy Mixtures

8. Climate Change Policy Mixtures
Data Collection:
Armenia RES Roadmap (2011)
National Energy Efficiency Action Plan 2010 (2010)
Action Plan for the Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Armenia Stipulated by the Provisions of the National Security Strategies of the Republic of Armenia (2007)
Overview, Implementation of the Kyoto Protocol’s Clean Development Mechanism in Armenia (EBRD, 2009)
Sustainable Energy Sector Development Strategy of Armenia (2005)

9. Climate Change Policy Mixtures
Base Parameters for all Scenarios:
Base Year: 2010
Historical Period:
Planning Period:

10. Climate Change Policy Mixtures
Developing BAU – Key Assumptions:
Demographics: UN projections for Armenian population
Economy: GDP Average Annual Growth – 4.5%
Climate Statistics:
Annual Change of Precipitation: -0.8%
Annual Increase of Temperature: 1 %
Surface Waters Decrease: -0.53%
Land Management – 1530 km2 of arable land during whole planning period

11. Climate Change Policy Mixtures
Developing BAU – Energy Demand:
Households:
Natural Gas – from 471 to 2410 million m3
Electricity – up to 8.8 billion kWh
Heat – up to 244 billion kcal
Agriculture
Electricity – 4%/year (up to 604 million kWh)
Industry
Natural Gas – up to 1.9 million m3
Electricity – 5 billion kWh
Heat – 288 billion kcal in 2050
Transport
Energy Demand – 4% annually
Non Specified
Average Annual Growth – 2%

12. Climate Change Policy Mixtures
Developing OPT – Key Assumptions:
Demographics: UN projections for Armenian population
Economy: GDP Average Annual Growth – 4.5%
Climate Statistics:
Annual Change of Precipitation: -0.26%
Annual Increase of Temperature: 1.02 %
Surface Waters Decrease: -0.26%
Land Management – 1530 km2 of arable land during whole planning period

13. Climate Change Policy Mixtures
Developing OPT – Energy Demand:
Households:
Natural Gas – up to 2302 million m3
Electricity – up to 7.8 billion kWh
Heat – up to 233 billion kcal
Agriculture
Electricity – 3.9%/year (up to 588 million kWh)
Industry
Natural Gas – up to 1.1 million m3
Electricity – 4.6 billion kWh
Heat – 264 billion kcal in 2050
Transport
Energy Demand – 5% annually
Non Specified
Average Annual Growth – 2.2%

14. Climate Change Policy Mixtures
Developing PES – Key Assumptions:
Demographics: UN projections for Armenian population
Economy: GDP Average Annual Growth – 4.5%
Climate Statistics:
Annual Change of Precipitation: -1.11%
Annual Increase of Temperature: 1.20 %
Surface Waters Decrease: -1.11%
Land Management – 1530 km2 of arable land during whole planning period

15. Climate Change Policy Mixtures
Developing PES – Energy Demand:
Households:
Natural Gas – up to 2354 million m3
Electricity – up to 8.3 billion kWh
Heat – up to 238 billion kcal
Agriculture
Electricity – 3.96%/year (up to 596 million kWh)
Industry
Natural Gas – up to 1.2 million m3
Electricity – 4.8 billion kWh
Heat – 276 billion kcal in 2050
Transport
Energy Demand – 1.52% annually
Non Specified
Average Annual Growth – 1.8%

16. Climate Change Policy Mixtures
LEAP Results: Transformation, All Fuels

17. Climate Change Policy Mixtures
LEAP Results: One Hundred Year Global Warming Potential (All Fuels, All GHGs), kton CO2eqv

18. Climate Change Policy Mixtures
Each Scenario assessed by Multi-Criteria Method AMS

19. Climate Change Policy Mixtures
Best policy mixture: policy portfolio in OPT is the best in terms of overall performance. The policy portfolio in BAU is the worst one.

20. Future Opportunities

21. Future Opportunities Needs & Gaps:
Demography: no national long-term (up to 2050) forecasts
GDP: no national long-term GDP and its distribution forecasts
Water use by sectors: only regional forecast is available
Energy Demand: simplified forecast
Energy transformation: lack of future technology specifications
Comprehensive studies related to long-term ( years) projections of demographic situation, economic development (GDP), energy demand, energy/water use, new technologies etc. are strongly required

22. Future Opportunities Future cooperation: Information and data exchange
Consultancies
Study-tours for students & young specialists
Training in different areas of energy and climate issues
Providing of Expertise
Etc.

23. Thank You! Energy Strategy Center of
Scientific Research Institute of Energy
5/1 Myasnikyan avenue, 0025 Yerevan, Armenia
Phone/Fax: