1. Migration Transition in Serbia: A Realistic Future or just a Hypothetical Model?
VLADIMIR NIKITOVIĆ
INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL SCIENCES - BELGRADE
DEMOGRAPHIC RESEARCH CENTRE

2. Background
A negative migration balance with almost all the countries for which data is available.
Quite rough estimate of the current net migration balance between -10,000 and -15,000 persons per year
Huge earnings and employment differentials between the EU and Serbia
Emigration for low skilled jobs still dominates
Brain waste and brain drain are characteristics since the 1990s
Well-established migration networks in the “old” EU
Return migration of nationals (mostly pensioners)
Visa-free regime in the Shengen area intensified flows

3. Age profile of migrants, 2009-2011
Males
Females
Emigration
Immigration
Emigration
Immigration
Age
Age
Source: Eurostat online database

4. Probabilistic population scenarios, 2011-2051
Cohort-component population projection model (10,000 future paths by Monte Carlo-style simulations ) was run in R – the original code by Hunsinger (2011) has been adjusted
Fertility forecast is based on AR(1) model of TFR where the constant term is adjusted to reach 1.6 in 2051
Mortality forecast is based on a random walk with drift model of life expectancy at birth (modest increase in line with recent improvements in LE)
The accession date (assumed 2021) as the turning point of transition in migration
Migration is forecasted in a deterministic manner
Two possible futures depending on migration future – “Czech” and “Polish” scenario used the same fertility and mortality hypothesis
Three hypothetic scenarios – status quo, no migration and high fertility

5. Net migration according to two scenarios, 2011-2051
Based on: Kupiszewski et al (2012), ISS (2013), SORS (2014).

6. Predictive distribution of total population of Serbia – Polish and Czech scenario
458 thousands

7. Predictive distribution of selected population indicators according to three scenarios

8. Migration-induced changes in selected population indicators in the two scenarios (medians), 2051

9. Changes in selected population indicators in the three scenarios (medians) if compared to status quo, 2051

10. Conclusion Open question:
Even the most optimistic scenario could not stop reducing and ageing of total population
Migration transition is the best option in the short term while increasing fertility is the most efficient in the long term
The effect of migration transition on total population equals the effect of increasing fertility
Emigration capacity is limited due to demographic ageing
Smooth transition to immigrant country does not seem to be close to a realistic future
Open question:
Who would represent immigrants in the transition towards an immigration future given current unfavourable conditions (closed society)?

11. VLADIMIR NIKITOVIĆ vnikitovic@idn.org.rs
Migration Transition in Serbia: A Realistic Future or just a Hypothetical Model?
VLADIMIR NIKITOVIĆ