Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Analyzing the Risk of Transporting Crude Oil by Rail

Published byMoris Poole Modified over 6 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Analyzing the Risk of Transporting Crude Oil by Rail"— Presentation transcript:

1 Analyzing the Risk of Transporting Crude Oil by Rail
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Analyzing the Risk of Transporting Crude Oil by Rail Charles F. Mason H.A. True Chair in Petroleum and Natural Gas Economics Department of Economics & Finance University of Wyoming Laramie, Wyoming 7 January, 2017 ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

2 July 6, 2013: Lac-Me´ gantic, Quebec
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary July 6, 2013: Lac-Me´ gantic, Quebec ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

3 December 30, 2013: Casselton, North Dakota
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary December 30, 2013: Casselton, North Dakota ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

4 April 30, 2014: Lynchburg, Virginia
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary April 30, 2014: Lynchburg, Virginia ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

5 February 16, 2015: Mount Carbon, West Virginia
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary February 16, 2015: Mount Carbon, West Virginia ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

6 March 5, 2015: Galena, IL Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics
Summary March 5, 2015: Galena, IL ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

7 Pushback Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary
ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

8 Pushback Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary
ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

9 Serious Incidents Originating State Frequency Percent Colorado 1 4.35
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Serious Incidents Originating State Frequency Percent Colorado 1 4.35 Delaware Kansas Montana 2 8.7 New Mexico North Dakota 15 65.22 Texas Wyoming Total 23 100 ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

10 Crude Oil Rail Incidents
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Crude Oil Rail Incidents A. Serious Incidents Fraction of weeks with an event 0.07 Number of weeks between events Mean Std. Dev. Median Skewness B. Minor Incidents Fraction of weeks with an event 0.50 Number of events per week Mean Std. Dev. Median Skewness ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017 10 / 23

11 Major Incidents: Quantity of Oil Spilled and Economic
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Major Incidents: Quantity of Oil Spilled and Economic Damages 15000 150 Thousands of Barrels 10000 Millions of US Dollars 100 5000 50 2009m1 2010m1 2011m1 2012m1 2013m1 2014m1 2015m1 month amount of crude oil released in major incidents total economic damages in major incidents ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

12 Minor Incidents and Time Between Major Incidents
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Minor Incidents and Time Between Major Incidents 100 2009w w w w w w26 week 10 weeks between serious oil spills 80 minor oil spills per week 5 60 40 20 2010w26 2011w26 2012w27 week 2013w26 2014w26 ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

13 Minor Rail Incidents vs. Rail Oil Traffic
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Minor Rail Incidents vs. Rail Oil Traffic 2009m1 2010m1 2011m1 2012m1 2013m1 2014m1 2015m1 ym monthly number of minor incidents monthly oil car shipped by rail 15 20 monthly number of minor incidents monthly oil car shipped by rail 15 10 10 5 5 ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

14 Rail Oil Traffic: Small Shipping States
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Rail Oil Traffic: Small Shipping States 250 200 monthly rail cars 150 100 50 2009m1 2010m1 2011m1 2012m1 month 2013m1 2014m1 ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

15 Rail Oil Traffic: Large Shipping States
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Rail Oil Traffic: Large Shipping States 2000 1500 monthly rail cars 1000 500 2008m7 2010m1 2011m7 month 2013m1 2014m7 ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

16 Rail Oil Traffic: North Dakota
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Rail Oil Traffic: North Dakota 15000 10000 monthly rail cars 5000 2008m7 2010m1 2011m7 month 2013m1 2014m7 ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

17 Annual Crude Oil Shipments
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Annual Crude Oil Shipments State 2009 2010 2011 Year 2012 2013 2014 Total IL 1 3 19 22 91 136 WY 11 53 65 191 320 TX 10 14 118 264 286 163 855 CO 21 4 26 111 166 328 ND 86 205 417 1080 1447 1403 4638 Other 50 74 112 577 494 1627 Note: Trains delivering crude oil, listed by originating state. ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

18 Average Number of Cars Carrying Crude Oil, by Year
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Average Number of Cars Carrying Crude Oil, by Year State 2009 2010 2011 Year 2012 2013 2014 Total IL 1 2 81.37 34.27 90.18 77.30 WY 4.23 12.46 65.18 42.17 TX 22.17 22.83 22.74 13.94 20.40 CO 2.90 29.75 32.46 23.33 83.33 53.19 ND 4.02 43.19 29.31 59.70 92.68 100.39 77.80 Other 10.50 9.26 7.53 4.40 5.50 18.92 9.82 Note: Average number of cars carrying crude oil per train. Listed by originating state. ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

19 Data � Incidents � Rail Traffic � merged these sets ✄ PHMSA reports
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Data � Incidents ✄ PHMSA reports any (self-reported) “incident” (restrict to crude oil) can be minor (common) or serious (infrequent) observations collected for 1 Jan 2009 – 31 Dec 2014 info on amount oil released, total econ. damage, originating state � Rail Traffic ✄ DOT waybill sample most large carrier shipments detailed information on every shipment, retained all shipments carrying oil, originating in US � merged these sets ✄ aggregated to monthly observations “obs.”: number of oil cars shipped in month t from a state k no. incidents (0 – 8) no. serious incidents (0/1) amt. oil spilled; total costs ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

20 Time Between Serious Incidents
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Time Between Serious Incidents Regression model regressor Cox Exponential Weibull Cumulative number of minor incidents -0.025∗∗∗ (0.009) -0.019∗ (0.011) -0.019∗ (0.010) constant -2.255∗∗∗ (0.504) -1.956∗∗∗ (0.272) p 0.905 (0.146) χ2 statistic 7.644∗∗∗ 3.101∗ 3.599∗ Standard errors in parentheses *: significant at 10%; **: significant at 5%; ***: significant at 1% ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017 20 / 23

21 χ2 Rail Car Shipments and Minor Incidents Poisson Negative Binomial
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Rail Car Shipments and Minor Incidents Poisson Negative Binomial (1) (2) (3) (4) Thousand cars 0.205∗∗∗ (0.014) 0.136∗∗∗ (0.006) 0.236∗∗∗ (0.018) 0.154∗∗∗ (0.024) constant -1.333∗∗∗ -1.378∗∗∗ -0.387 (0.104) (0.257) State-level FE? no yes N 681 562 χ2 229.0 442.7 167.1 42.7 Standard errors in parentheses *: significant at 10%; **: significant at 5%; ***: significant at 1% ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

22 χ2 Rail Shipments and (a) Oil Spilled, (b) Total Damages
Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Rail Shipments and (a) Oil Spilled, (b) Total Damages Dep. Vbl.: (a) Quantity of Oil Spilled (b) Total Economic Damages Poisson (1) Negative Binomial (2) Poisson Negative Binomial (3) (4) Thousand cars 0.026∗∗∗ (0.007) 0.137∗∗∗ (0.021) 0.215∗∗∗ (0.004) 0.227∗∗∗ (0.022) constant -2.333∗∗∗ (0.126) yes -4.183∗∗∗ (0.122) yes State-level FE? yes yes N χ2 562 16.03 562 42.80 539 2587 539 102.3 Standard errors in parentheses *: significant at 10%; **: significant at 5%; ***: significant at 1% ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

23 Motivation Incidents Rail traffic Empirics Summary Conclusion � statistically important, negative relation b/w accumulated minor incidents and time between serious events � statistically important, positive rel’n b/w rail traffic and pdf over minor incidents ✄ adding 10,000 rail cars shipping oil ⇒ .4 add’n’l incidents / week � fixed effects largest for states with significant tight oil production ✄ OK, ND, TX, NM, WY � statistically important positive rel’n b/w rail traffic and pdf over costs ✄ implies impact on expected costs: marginal impact of one-unit increase in rail shipments = $725 ✄ costs reported in database include lost product and damaged capital (private costs) costs from response, closure of main transportation arteries (social costs) ✄ costs do not include social costs associated with environmental damages from oil spills property damages resulting from serious events (e.g., spill-induced fires) value of lost life ASSA/IAEE (C. Mason) Oil by Rail 7 January, 2017

Download ppt "Analyzing the Risk of Transporting Crude Oil by Rail"

Similar presentations

Todd Geerdes Period 1 WA ME MT ND OR MN WI NY ID SD MI WY IA PA NV NE

Todd Geerdes Period 1 WA ME MT ND OR MN WI NY ID SD MI WY IA PA NV NE
U.S. States Abbreviations Directions: Type the state abbreviation in the box on each slide. www.ESLAmerica.US “The English language website where everything.

U.S. States Abbreviations Directions: Type the state abbreviation in the box on each slide. “The English language website where everything.
January 6. January 7 January 8 January 9 January 10.

January 6. January 7 January 8 January 9 January 10.
The States’ Flags and Their Capitals. TX NM AZ AK HI CA NV UT CO MT OR WA ID WY OK KS NE SD ND.

The States’ Flags and Their Capitals. TX NM AZ AK HI CA NV UT CO MT OR WA ID WY OK KS NE SD ND.
The Impact of Changing Economic Conditions Since 2005 on the Forest Sector W. Brad Smith U.S. Forest Service Research & Development Washington, DC FIA.

The Impact of Changing Economic Conditions Since 2005 on the Forest Sector W. Brad Smith U.S. Forest Service Research & Development Washington, DC FIA.
Effects of Diluted Bitumen on the Environment: A Comparative Study Diane McKnight, Committee Chair Douglas Friedman, Study Director Board on Chemical Sciences.

Effects of Diluted Bitumen on the Environment: A Comparative Study Diane McKnight, Committee Chair Douglas Friedman, Study Director Board on Chemical Sciences.
American Petroleum Institute Energy Community in Depth December 3, 2014.

American Petroleum Institute Energy Community in Depth December 3, 2014.
Performance Metrics Reporting Requirements Including Enhancements Qasim Yunus Tariq Alauddin 1.

Performance Metrics Reporting Requirements Including Enhancements Qasim Yunus Tariq Alauddin 1.
Let’s Have a Graduated Income Tax And Eliminate the Michigan Business Tax Presented at Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy February 9, 2009 Charles.

Let’s Have a Graduated Income Tax And Eliminate the Michigan Business Tax Presented at Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy February 9, 2009 Charles.
How to win a Presidential Election. The rules of the game Electoral College.

How to win a Presidential Election. The rules of the game Electoral College.
Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Supply, Demand, and Export Outlook for North American Oil and Gas.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Supply, Demand, and Export Outlook for North American Oil and Gas.
UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND SCHOOL OF LAW Professor Noah M. Sachs Toxic Chemicals and Water: What are the Risks? What are the Solutions?

UNIVERSITY OF RICHMOND SCHOOL OF LAW Professor Noah M. Sachs Toxic Chemicals and Water: What are the Risks? What are the Solutions?
Transportation Strategy SCMN 4780 Modal Analysis: Pipeline.

Transportation Strategy SCMN 4780 Modal Analysis: Pipeline.
NOPP Regional Ocean Observing Systems Benefits Project: Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis (CEFA) Economic Impact Analysis of the Gulf of Mexico.

NOPP Regional Ocean Observing Systems Benefits Project: Center for Economic Forecasting and Analysis (CEFA) Economic Impact Analysis of the Gulf of Mexico.
U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration Pipeline Safety Update Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety.

U.S. Department of Transportation Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration Pipeline Safety Update Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety.
RAIL SAFETY/HAZMAT EMERGENCY RESPONSE PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION.

RAIL SAFETY/HAZMAT EMERGENCY RESPONSE PRESENTATION AND DISCUSSION.
Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Federal Forecasters Conference – The Value of Government Forecasts.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Federal Forecasters Conference – The Value of Government Forecasts.
Prevalence of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory Definitions  Obesity: Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30 or higher.  Body Mass.

Prevalence of Self-Reported Obesity Among U.S. Adults by State and Territory Definitions  Obesity: Body Mass Index (BMI) of 30 or higher.  Body Mass.
The Effect of Delhi Metro on Air Pollution in Delhi Deepti Goel Delhi School of Economics and Sonam Gupta University of Florida February 22, 2013, ISI.

The Effect of Delhi Metro on Air Pollution in Delhi Deepti Goel Delhi School of Economics and Sonam Gupta University of Florida February 22, 2013, ISI.
Chart 6.1: National Health Expenditures as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product and Breakdown of National Health Expenditures, 2011 Source: Centers.

Chart 6.1: National Health Expenditures as a Percentage of Gross Domestic Product and Breakdown of National Health Expenditures, 2011 Source: Centers.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google