1. Policies for GHG Emission Reduction in Canadian Agriculture
Richard Gray
Centre for Studies in Agriculture, Law and the Environment
University of Saskatchewan

2. Objectives
give some indication of the major sources of GHG emissions from agriculture
illustrate some of the challenges that reducing these sources will create for policy
provide some the economic rational for the policy recommendations contained in the AFFCC Table report
seek your input

3. Concentration Trends of CO2, CH4, and N2O
Carbon Dioxide
Methane
380
1800
360
1600
340
1400
(ppmv)
(ppbv)
CO2 concentration
320
CH4 concentration
1200
300
1000
280
800
260
600
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Year
Year
Nitrous Oxide
315
310
305
O concentration
300
(ppbv)
295
290
285 2 N
280
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Year

4. Projected CO2 Concentrations
(to 2100)
High Estimate
Intermediate Estimate
Low Estimate

5. Projected Temperature Change
between 1910 and 2040 AD
Combined Effect of Projected Greenhouse Gas and Sulfate Aerosol Increases.- Canadian Model

6. Questions about climate change
Are GHG gases accumulating? √√
Will GHG cause climate change?√
Will Kyoto stop climate change? x
Will the changes be bad? ???
For world,
for Canada,
for agriculture?

7. The FCCC and the Kyoto Accord
Canada commitment- 6% below for the period (25% below BAU)
Has to be signed and ratified by countries with 55% of emissions to take effect
Agricultural soils counted as a source but not as a sink
No penalties for non-compliance but any country ratifying the agreement might force others into compliance

9. Canada’s Response to Kyoto (www.nccp.ca)
Goal to develop an implementation strategy by fall 1999.
16 Tables set up to deal with sector or inter-sectoral issues
an integrative table looks at all sectors and makes recommendations
Climate Change Secretariat must report to Ministers
One for agriculture and one for forestry/agricultural sinks
Representatives from producers, industry, NGOs, fed/prov. government, universities
Foundation papers -science
Options papers - policy

14. Net Annual Exchange of CO2 by Crops (Mt/yr)8
Energy
CO2
520 90
300
Product
130
130
Soil organic matter
Ecosystem
boundary

15. Change in Organic C Content in Agricultural Soils (0-30 cm)
5000
3325
4500
3300
3275
Soil Organic Carbon (Gg)
4000
3250
1975
1985
1995
2005
3500
3000
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
Year

16. Change in Agricultural Soil Carbon for Various Provinces in Canada
-120
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20 20 40 60
Rate of change of soil C (kg/ha)
Eastern Provinces
Manitoba
Saskatchewan
Alberta
British Columbia
Canada
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
Year

17. Measurement of Soil C Gain
Variability 80
Analytical
Spatial 70 60 50
Increase with improved management
Soil C (Mg C ha-1) 40 30 20 10
Initial

18. N2O emissions for 1991 and 1996 (CO2 equivalent*)
Total N2O
emissions from
agriculture
1991: 34.3Tg
1996:40.9 Tg
Direct emissions
of N2O
from
agricultural
soils
1991:17.9 Tg
1996: 21.5 Tg
Direct emissions
of N2O in
animal
production
systems
1991:6.7 Tg
1996: 7.6 Tg
Indirect
emissions
of N2O
from agricultural
systems
1991: 9.6 Tg
1996: 11.8 Tg
* using a 100 year time horizon

20. Use of soil sinks net effects ? can only use once - option value?
CO2  N2O 
short term  long term 
can only use once - option value?
The form/costs of contract to ensure maintenance of sink

21. GHG Emissions from Canada’s Agroecosystems Including Inputs
(100 Year Time Horizon)
(Mt of CO2 equivalents)
1981
1986
1991
1996 CO 2 33 31 29 27 CH 4 22 20 23 N O 32 34 41
Total 87 84 83 91

22. Implications science for control of Ag GHG emissions
Nitrous oxide and Methane are new problems
Farming systems/ technologies to reduce GHG are still unclear
it may be possible to develop low cost mitigation options simply has not been explored

23. large scale measurement of emissions is expensive
250,000 farms, over 50 million hectares, hundreds of products
large spatial and temporal variations
systems and interactions are complex

24. Indirect measures - based on reduced input use or product output may be ineffective
Fixed proportion (eg. fossil fuel /GHG) can be managed with higher prices (taxes) anywhere in the system
in agriculture emissions are not proportional fossil fuel use - not even monotonic
e.g.. N fertilizer - soil carbon
less grain more cows

25. Related issues
the latest technologies may be cleaner- output expansion required to replace the old. Expansion may reduce emissions
reduced production in Canada may encourage dirty production elsewhere

26. Agriculture most directly affected by climate change
technologies have to make sense within changing climates

27. Policy options Regulations - regulate what? Taxation - tax what?
Subsidize - subsidize what?
Create emission markets - for what? Carbon only?
Do nothing- leave agriculture out

28. The AAFCC Table’s Knowledge Based Approach
spend resources to create technologies that will be voluntarily adopted by the sector
basic research
applied research in GHG mitigation
research in measurement and verification technologies
policy / carbon trading research
industry involvement extension and education

29. Table Recommendations:
1. Governments should provide resources to assist the extension of knowledge required to foster the adoption of proven technologies.
2. In recognition of the public benefits where cost-effective technologies are well known, and an economic incentive is required for their adoption, governments should provide public incentives for the adoption of GHG-reducing technologies.

30. 3. The federal government should continue to insist on the inclusion of soil, forestry and industrial sinks in the international protocol and to ensure that the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reflect Canadian conditions.
4.Governments should create research funds managed by the agricultural sector to assist in research and development of applied technologies for GHG reduction.

31. 5. Governments should provide public resources to support basic research activities for net GHG reduction.
6. As part of a national strategy, governments should work with the agricultural sector to refine national inventory, measurement and verification systems for net GHG emissions and to reflect improvements in technology.

32. 7. GHG emission trends in all sectors of agriculture in all provinces should be monitored and published.
8. Governments should work with the agricultural sector to develop targets for the reduction of GHG emissions along with incentives for meeting the targets.

33. 9. Governments should assist the agricultural sector in the development and refinement of “best management practices” for the reduction of GHG emissions.
10. Governments should provide resources to assist policy research, market research, legal research and other public infrastructure to facilitate the development of trading mechanisms that reward reductions in net agricultural GHG emissions.

34. 11. Governments should co-operate with private sector partners to develop a strategy that will enhance the agricultural sector’s ability to adapt to climate change using sustainable farming systems.

35. Summary A. Many sources of uncertainty
- effects of GHG
- ratification of international agreements
-compliance with international agreements
-inclusion of sinks
- overall domestic policy
- technologies for reduction in agriculture
B: Difficult to monitor and or indirectly control emissions in agriculture

36. Best policies? - spend resources on learning (research)
-wait for more information before spending large sums

37. Questions? Comments?