1. Matt Mushalik mushalik@tpg.com.au Twitter @crudeoilpeak
Global crude oil peak: where are we? Australia’s oil vulnerabilities East coast: peak conventional gas and power shortages
Matt Mushalik

3. US shale oil

4. 10 years of high oil prices
Low interest rates and quantitative easing
Shale oil boom
Asset bubbles
Higher mountain of debt
Budget deficits
Company closures (car industry, refineries)
Job losses
OECD demand for China’s exports weakened
Oil demand growth softened

5. 80% of federal budget deficit caused by lower company tax after GFC

6. Impact of Australian refinery closures (1)

7. Impact of Australian refinery closures (2)

8. Impact of Australian refinery closures (3)

9. South China Sea – Exxon gas blocks cross 9-dash line

10. Peak oil in Asia Pacific Region

11. China demand for oil products

12. Peak oil in China

13. Shell earnings insufficient for investments

14. Exxon Mobil finances dividends from new debt

15. Oil CAPEX reduction

16. IEA Medium Term Oil Market Report 2017

17. Peak conventional gas east coast

18. Load shedding Tomago aluminium smelter

19. NSW electricity generation by fuel

20. Coal and gas generation problems

21. Hazelwood closure – VIC shortages summer 2017/18

22. NSW dependence on VIC imports

23. Parramatta CBD demand growth peakier

24. Planning implication #1: reduce immigration

25. Planning implications #2 Departments must become energy literate
Many risky projects underway: NorthConnex, WestConnex, Epping-Chatswood rail tunnel conversion
Review all growth plans, must first calculate energy requirements
Value of power hungry towers and skyscrapers will drop
Badgerys Creek airport assumes growing Asian middle class and power supply in Sydney’s hot West for decades to come
Transurban sits on $12 bn debt: case for too big to fail
Metro too expensive & CBD centric, serving new skyscrapers, doesn’t replace car traffic
Light rail best solution but Sydney implementation is also too expensive compared to Europe

26. Thank you for your attention Matt Mushalik mushalik@tpg. com
Thank you for your attention Matt Mushalik