1. Climate Change and the Impacts in Maryland?
Jim Yienger
Director, Policy Institute
ICLEI- Local Governments for Sustainability
October 18, 2006
Adapted from a Presentation by William Morrow (IPCC)

2. The Earth’s Climate System
Light from the Sun is absorbed by land and water, and is converted to heat.
Some heat is emitted back into space as radiant heat, just as heat is radiated from hot pavement on a July day.
Some of this radiant heat is absorbed by water vapor and clouds, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and other trace atmospheric gases.
These gases act like the glass windows in a car creating the “hot car effect.”

3. Vostok temperature and CO2

4. Natural forces affect the climate system:
Fluctuations in the sun’s intensity
Gradual changes in earth’s orbit
Volcanic eruptions
Changes in ocean currents
Shorter-term cycles like El Nino

5. What is new is that human activities are altering the composition of the atmosphere, the face of the land, and the climate system.

6. “Hot Car” Effect and Climate Change
Natural
Enhanced

7. What human activities are affecting climate?
Carbon dioxide from fossil fuels
Methane from agriculture, livestock, landfills, fossil fuel production.
Nitrous oxide from agriculture and industry
Deforestation releases carbon
Refrigerants, like the CFC replacement HFC

8. Mauna Loa CO2 record

9. Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
Methane (CH4)
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

10. Remember CFCs???
Ozone destroying chemical we phased out with Montreal Protocol
Replacements HFCs:
2 to 3 THOUSAND times more potent than CO2 as a GHG

11. 375

12. Turn it up…
The 1980's were the hottest decade on record...until the 1990's.
The 1990's were the warmest decade in at least 1,000 years.
2003 was the 2nd hottest year ever recorded.
Until 2005, then that was the hottest.
January to September 2006, even hotter.
The five hottest years on record all have occurred since 1997, and the 10 hottest since 1990.
The planet is now warming faster than at any time in the last 10,000 years....and the rate of change is accelerating.

14. Temperature
Temperature map
Precipitation

15. Major Indicators of Climate Change
Global temperature rise of 1o F in past 100 years.
Poles melting. High latitude increases of 4o F
95% of world’s glaciers are retreating
Seasons in the US and Europe have shifted by one week in past 50 years
Precipitation patterns are changing
Species are migrating higher and towards the poles
Sea level has risen by 6-10”, and rising

17. Upsala Glacier Patagonia, Argentina

18. Rhone Glacier Switzerland 1930-2001

19. Pasterze Glacier Austria 1875-2004

20. Looking to the Future
What will happen to concentrations of climate altering gases such as carbon dioxide if we fail to act?
What will happen to planetary temperatures if we fail to act?

21. CO2 Concentration Growth Scenarios

22. 650
375

23. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Global_Warming_Predictions.png

24. 100 years ahead
Source: Hadley Center model projection

25. What does climate change mean to you locally?
Long term shift in climate zone.
Look southward 2-3 states….
Replacement of maple, birch, with oak and pine
Increase invasive in insect species.
Extreme weather events
Tornados, floods, hurricanes, droughts, heat waves, etc.
Increased vulnerability of cities, people, and infrastructure

26. Impacts in Maryland Sea Level Rise 15-40 inches, sea water intrusion
Agricultural Impacts: less tobacco more soybeans
Increases in soil erosion and saltwater intrusion in Coastal Zones
Increase in incidents of heat stress
The red portions of the image show existing areas less than 5 feet above sea level – the blue is feet. Coupled with increased storm surges, this could lead to severe flooding problems
More rain and snow in the region will bolster fresh water supplies, but increased pop will use more H2O.
Reduction in trout and cold water fish species- increases in warm water fish
Forests of maple, beech, and birch will be replaced with oak, hickory, and pine
There will be changes in the distribution of pests, frequency of fires, and extent of soil erosion
Source : Mid-Atlantic Climate Impacts Assessment (Penn State, 2000)

27. Heat waves: Rise in Daily High Temperatures
Outcome: Substantial increase in heat stress on population

29. So the problem of climate change is of growing concern
So the problem of climate change is of growing concern. What do we do to slow it? What do we do to adapt to it?

30. Stay Tuned... Six great speakers coming up!!!! Thank You.
Contact: Jim Yienger Director, ICLEI USA Policy Institute Phone:

31. Options Use fossil fuels more efficiently
Continue to use fossil fuels but capture and store CO2 physically and biologically
Develop efficient market instruments to achieve cost effective energy mix
Utilize other technologies such as nuclear, wind, solar, biomass and geothermal energy

32. Business Opportunities
Investment in renewable energy tripled to $18 billion between 1995 and 2002
The US once dominated wind, solar and biomass technology, but has fallen behind countries such as Japan, Germany Denmark and Brazil
The IPCC estimates that there is sufficient technology available to reduce global CO2 emissions by 15% in a decade at zero or net negative costs

33. The growth, however, is in the reverse order
Fossil fuels dominate the production of electricity (64%) followed by hydro and nuclear (17%) and other renewables (2%)
The growth, however, is in the reverse order
Wind 25%
Solar 19%
Hydro 2%
Fossil fuels 0-2%

34. Global Trends World Electricity in Energy Use Generation by Type
World Electricity
Generation by Type
2000
Hydro
Fossil
Fuels

35. Lag Times

36. Innovative Thinking is Needed to Address Climate Change
Now is the time to act, but it requires thinking in new, creative ways
We need to replace talk with action!
There are opportunities for all sectors of industry and to applaud and expand the successful measures of the innovators
There are opportunities to follow the lead of innovative cities like Toronto who began municipal action in 1988