1. Bangkok, ECCA Training, September 1, 2017
Empowered Lives. Resilient Nations.
Economic Analysis of Localized Weather and Climate Forecast and Water Management Practices for Rice Farming in Oriental Mindoro, Philippines
Mia Barbara Aranas
PHILIPPINES
Bangkok, ECCA Training, September 1, 2017

2. PROJECT BACKGROUND
Province of Oriental Mindoro – Rice Granary of Region 4B
Area harvested: 109,046.8 ha
Volume of production (2016): 491, mt
Yield: 4.5 mt/ha
Problem: Decline in productivity due to poor climate-risk preparedness of rice farmers to weather/climate-induced events.
Good seeds: 0.5 mt/ha (El Nino) vs. 3.0 mt/ha (Netural)/a
Decline in yield by 22% (strong El Nino), 6% (moderate), and 0.2% (weak)/b
Proposed adaptation options:
localized weather and climate forecast
Improved water management/ conservation practices
14 municipalities and 1 city
/a PAO-Oriental Mindoro, 2017
/b Delos Reyes and David, 2009

3. PROJECT BACKGROUND Localized weather and climate forecast
10-day forecast
Extreme event warning
Seasonal forecast (3 month lead time)
Risks management advice
One board for each barangay/ farmer cluster i.e. different forecast per barangay based on historical records of forecast
Improved water management/ conservation practices
Solar water pumps, improved lining of canal for irrigation (lowland)
Improved water impounding based on hydrological assessment (upland and rainfed)

4. OBJECTIVES
GENERAL OBJECTIVE: To determine the economic benefits of adopting a local weather and seasonal forecast and water conservation and management practices of rice farmers   
SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES:
To establish the baseline scenario of rice production in Oriental Mindoro
To estimate the economic costs of the changes in productivity due to extreme weather events
To estimate the economic costs and benefits of using local weather and seasonal forecasts and water management practices

5. METHODOLOGY Adaptation Options Output Outcome
Localized weather forecast
Improved decision-making
Better allocation of resources
Improved timing of activities
Climate change resilient and climate smart rice production
Decreases in losses in production
Improved water management / conservation
Address fluctuations in water availability
Estimate incremental cost/ savings
Estimate incremental benefits

6. METHODOLOGY
Decrease in losses in production

7. METHODOLOGY COST BENEFITS ANALYSIS
Establish baseline scenario for rice production
Identify and estimate changes in yield of rice due to El Nino-induced drought, shifting in the onset of rainfall and excessive rainfall.
Identify and estimate changes in yield due to the use of localized weather and seasonal climate forecast and water management practices
Identify and estimate the costs associated with the adoption of adaptation options
Conduct sensitivity analysis, i.e. determine trigger values e.g. change in yield that will result in zero net benefits
COST BENEFITS ANALYSIS
Establish baseline scenario for rice production
Identify and estimate changes in yield of rice due to El Nino-induced drought, shifting in the onset of rainfall and excessive rainfall.
Identify and estimate changes in yield due to the use of localized weather and seasonal climate forecast and water management practices under different climate change scenarios
Identify and estimate the costs associated with the adoption of adaptation options
Conduct sensitivity analysis, i.e. determine trigger values e.g. change in yield that will result in zero net benefits

8. DATA REQUIRED Volume of production (mt) Area of production (ha)
DATA NEEDS
DATA SOURCE
METHOD OF COLLECTION
Baseline Scenario
Volume of production (mt)
Area of production (ha)
Number of farmers and type of farming system (irrigated, rainfed, lowland, upland)
Type of existing water source and associated costs per season/ year and per climate events (el nino-induced drought) (irrigation, pump, reservoir, impounding, etc.)
Damage to crops and post-harvest losses due to El Nino-induced drought
Cost of missing the optimal time of planting
Cost of / damage functions in terms of loss of production due to excessive rainfall
Provincial Agricultural Office
Municipal Agricultural Office
City Agricultural Office
Philippine Statistics Authority
Farmers
Literature review
Key informant interviews
Secondary data collection
Focus group discussions
Survey (cost of missing the optimal time of planting, damages to crops and post-harvest losses due to el Nino-induced droughts and excessive rainfalls)
Weather Data
Basic weather data (precipitation, min and max temperature, etc.) for Oriental Mindoro (1954 or earlier)
Number and intensity of El Nino and La Nina Episodes since 1954
PAGASA (Weather Bureau)
DATA REQUIRED

9. DATA NEEDS
DATA SOURCE
METHOD OF COLLECTION
Weather Data
Basic weather data (precipitation, min and max temperature, etc.) for Oriental Mindoro (1954 or earlier)
Number and intensity of El Nino and La Nina Episodes since 1954
PAGASA (Weather Bureau)
Key informant interviews
Secondary data collection
Focus group discussions
Assumptions of alternative scenarios, e.g. adoption of localized weather and climate forecast and water management practices
(Assumptions on the) Reduction in the damages to crops due to of local weather / seasonal forecast and appropriate water conservation/ management practices such as communal irrigation and lining of canal, shallow tube well, and solar water pumps (lowland), water impounding facilities (upland and rainfed).
(Assumptions on the) Reduction in post-harvest losses due to the use of the adaptation practices mentioned above
Costs associated with putting up a localized weather and climate forecast
Costs associated with establishing/ improving communal irrigation and other water management and conservation practices.
Provincial Agricultural Office
Municipal Agricultural Office
City Agricultural Office
Farmers
Literature review
Survey
DATA REQUIRED

10. THANK YOU
Q&A