1. Workshop to develop theories of change
Theory of Change
Workshop to develop theories of change

2. Opening
Introductions, opening, devotions, formalities, etc.

3. Program (to be elaborated)
Introduction elements
ToC development + elaboration
Presentations and Discussions

4. Objectives (specify)
Develop and elaborate theories of change for the xxx programs, so that they can be used as a basis for program development, implementation, reflection, measuring progress, communication and attracting funds
Be sure to ask participants their own objectives first.

5. Theory of Change Logic planning models Evaluation History
Theory-based evaluation
1995, Caroll Weiss
“a theory of how and why an initiative works”
1970s; mostly logical framework

6. History
DfID first, now most major donors and organizations

7. Definitions of ToC
Let participants read and buzz in 2’s or 3’s which is the best definition. Let 2 or 3 people defend their choice.
No need for final choice. The essential elements of ToC are more important.

8. Different uses
Explanation of what mechanism, interacting with which factors and actors lead to which changes. Causal story.
Rough visual representation outlining major building blocks of a programme. Overview story.
Narrative story about what is driving an organisation in its work. Principles story.
Only use this slide if there is confusion with other types of theories of change.

9. Practical use Requirement to get SPP approved
Logical basis for program
Basis for monitoring results
Basis for reflecting on what happens during implementation: Why does it (not) work? Which assumptions were wrong?
Basis for changing strategies during implementation (e.g. moving ‘higher up’)
Mental map to orient ‘where you are’
Tool for communication what is done why

10. Essentials
Change
Causality
Context
Actors
Assumptions

11. Essentials
Change
Causality
Context
Actors
Assumptions
Worldview

12. Optionals Detailed mechanisms Details about strategies and activities
Grouping actors or naming them
Linkage to evidence
Linkage to M&E framework (Can also be done at a later stage, or in separate document)

13. Assumption types Assumptions about operations
‘the training is sufficiently relevant that people will turn up without being paid’
Assumptions about causal links
‘training leads to more knowledge about effects of early marriage, which leads to less early marriages’
Assumptions about belief systems
‘men rather than women should be leaders’
Assumptions about actions of other actors
‘agricultural extension officers provide training as specified’
Assumptions about external context
‘the demand for carpenters will remain stable during the project’

14. Not very serious consequences Very serious consequences
Assumption filtering
Most risky:
Not very serious consequences
Very serious consequences
Likely to be valid
Nothing to worry
Mitigate consequences
Likely to be invalid
Reduce risk
Rethink design

15. Causality “The relation between mosquitos and mosquito bites”
Often: contributory cause “Is the intervention a necessary element of a package that is sufficient to bring change?”
Arrows in ToC: (contributory) causal relation (exceptions: consecutive relations “and then”)

16. Product assumptions about
What should (ideally) be developed at the end of the workshop?
Visual diagram
Narrative that includes
Change
Causal Pathways
Interacting context factors
Interactions other actors
Other assumptions
assumptions about

17. Instruction steps Long term outcome Outcome pathways
Link to interventions
Actors and Context interactions
Further assumptions
Narrative and refined visualisation
All steps: Use what is already there. We acknowledge that you do not start from zero.

18. 1. Long term outcome Write a statement with the long term outcome
How does it look like when this program reaches its objectives fully?
What has changed and for whom?
How can this be seen? (close your eyes and see it)
Write this in a statement as concretely as possible
With small epitaph: How should people remember your program after it has left the earth?

19. 2. Outcome pathways Develop outcome pathways
Start with the long term outcome
What changes are needed to achieve this?
Conditions, institutions, relationships, capabilities, attitudes, behaviours
Concrete changes: what change, for whom, by whom

20. Outcome pathways cont’d
List all preconditions and write on cards
Connect as causal pathways
Repeat these steps as far as needed
Draw the causal path schematically Simplify where needed

21. 3. Link to interventions
Link the outcome pathway to the interventions (main groups of activities) of the program.
Either at the bottom
Or at any point along the outcome pathway where they happen
Check if all major activities are included
If not: are they needed? Or did you miss out an outcome pathway?
Interventions, strategies, (groups of) activities: all these words can be used.

22. 4. Add actors and context
Go critically through your outcome pathways and indicate (using colours)
Which actors also influence these changes, and how?
Which other factors are influences on changes or conditions that are needed for these changes?
How do you interact with these actors and factors?

23. 5. Assumptions
Which causal relations (arrows) are the biggest assumptions?
What are the main assumptions about actors and contextual factors?
Are there any other assumptions that underpin the program?
Filter the most important assumptions: any change or strategy needed?
In the theory section there are 2 more slides about assumptions and the risk analysis

24. 6. Narrative and Refine Which visuals do you want to have? Narrative
For whom? Simple and complex versions?
Overview and detailed diagram?
Narrative
Add contextual information and reasons for choices made
Write out the causal relations
Focus on what raises most questions in the diagram
Include things that are not visualised (e.g. some actors, context factors, assumptions)

25. And then… ToC is ready… what next?
Who else needs to be taken along in the process?
How do you know if “theory” is also practice?
 Monitoring – use ToC as basis for M&E
Use ToC as basis for reflection in staff meetings
Usually need for adaptation
And elaboration
Basis for shifting focus in strategies
Reminder that it is not the product that counts, but the reflective way of thinking!
Consider discussing concrete actions: when and where will ToC be (re-)discussed?

26. Presentations To director(s), Board, other stakeholders
Also think about tasks remaining in case the ToCs are not yet sufficiently elaborated.