1. Estimating Management Costs for “Site de Conservation” in Madagascar
Technical Sub-committee of the Sustainable Finance group of the EP3

2. Building a Protected Area System
In September 2003, the President of Madagascar, Hon. Marc Ravalomanana, declared that his country would more than triple the area under conservation bringing the current 1.7 million hectares of protected areas up to 6 million.

3. Madagascar’s Protected Areas Today

4. What will it cost?
Within a given country, the size of a protected area is the most important indicator of its cost (Balmford et al. 2002, 2003.) explaining about 80 to 85% of the variation seen in cost per ha
Model developed estimation of the appropriate area to cost/area regression and the expected sizes of the future Site de Conservation

5. Identified and to be Identified SDC
Analysis based on:
Identified and to be Identified SDC
Total Identified Terrestrial 2,941,125
Total Identified Marine and Wetland 1,445,986
Total Sites Currently Identified 4,387,111
Total ANGAP Sites 2,060,000
Target Terrestrial Sites 5,500,000 (10%)
Unidentified Terrestrial Sites ,875

6. Model- Terrestrial High Cost Scenario based on ANGAP costs:
Log(cost/ha) = *Log(PA area in ha)
(r2= 0.87, p<0.000).
Minimum Cost Scenario (42% reduction):
Log(cost/ha) = *Log(PA area)
(42% reduction due to elimination of some unncessary spending categories)

7. DATA
the annual costs that ANGAP (Madagascar’s Park and Reserve Management Authority) have budgeted for the next five years
an analysis of ANGAP’s 2005 budget by activity
Include modification for off-site or fixed administrative costs

8. Administrative Costs Sites divided into three categories:
1) those that will be managed or at least overseen nationally;
2) those that will be managed at the provincial or regional level, and
3) those that will be managed only at the local level

9. Terrestrial Results Area Low Cost High Cost
Area
Low Cost
High Cost
Identified Terrestrial Sites
2,941,125
$ 2,611,000
$ 5,430,000
Unidentified
Terrestrial Sites
500,000
$ 1,970,000
$ 3,923,000
Total Site de Conservation
3,441,125
$ 4,581,000
$ 9,353,000

10. Model – Marine & Wetland
log10 (cost per unit area, dollar km-2 y-1) = *log10(area) *(distance to inhabited land) *(PPP index) area is given in km2, costs in USD, distance to inhabited land is measured from the geometric center of the protected area, PPP = purchasing power parity. From Balmford et al
Assumptions: PPP = 3.5 (but is probably higher); distance = 1 km.

11. Marine & Wetland Results
Area
Low Cost
High Cost
Identified Marine and Wetland Sites
1,445,986
$ 3,199,000
$ 6,488,000
Assumes a 50% reduction in costs from high cost to low cost scenario.

12. Total Costs for Site de Conservation
Area
Low Cost
High Cost
Total for all Site de Conservation
4,887,111
$ 7,780,000
$ 15,841,000

13. Low Cost Estimates for Site de Conservation Management
Terrestrial
Marine & Wetland
Total
Size of Site de Cons.
Large > 20000
Medium
Btw 2000 & 20000
Small <
2000
Large >
7000
Btw 600
& 7000
600
Area
3,297,808
141,817
1,500
1,398,434
44,904
2,648
4,887,111
Average cost per ha ($)
1.06
7.38
19.33
1.71
15.41
43.81
1.59
Total Annual Costs ($)
3,506,000
1,046,000
29,000
2,391,000
692,000
116,000
7,780,000

14. High Cost Estimates for Site de Conservation Management
Terrestrial
Marine & Wetland
Total
Size of Site de Cons.
Large > 20000
Medium
Btw 2000 & 20000
Small <
2000
Large >
7000
Btw 600
& 7000
600
Area
3,297,808
141,817
1,500
1,398,434
44,904
2,648
4,887,111
Average cost per ha ($)
2.16
15.15
45.33
3.42
30.75
124.24
3.24
Total Annual Costs ($)
7,137,000
2,148,000
68,000
4,778,000
1,381,000
329,000
15,841,000

15. Summary of Costs

16. Issues
Findings provide range of costs - higher range probable during start-up and early operating phases with decreases over time.
Marginal costs for newer SdC may prove higher as larger areas are unlikely to be available
Marine protected areas, if all brought on line, will contribute significantly to costs – although the PPP choice may skew results

17. Issues
4. Costs reported here do not include the existing ANGAP requirements – these are additional
Significant increase in annual conservation financing requirements that Madagascar and the global community need to finance
Final costs will be rationalized through the business planning process

18. Can We Afford the Investment?