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Kenneth Madison International Security Symposium Bucharest, 2016
NATO and Its Future Kenneth Madison International Security Symposium Bucharest, 2016
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Content History Institution Sample Case
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Pre-History 09.05.1948 24.06.1948 Soviet takeover Berlin Blockade
in Czechoslovakia Berlin Blockade End: Treaty of Brussels Belgium, Netherlands, Luxemburg, France, United Kingdom Western European Union`s Defence Organization
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The first years 04.04.1949 end 1950 North Atlantic Treaty
MB Treaty of Brussels + United States, Canada, Portugal, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Iceland end 1950 expansion of NATO divisions in Europe + made of nuclear weapons 1950 Korean War Turkey and Greece joined the alliance Forward Strategy
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Cold War 14.05.1955 1952 Warsaw Pact massive retaliation 1954
Soviet Union, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Albania, East Germany 1952 massive retaliation 1954 rejection of Soviet membership Germany joined since 1955 build-up of arms
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Cold War since 1959 01.071968 France exception Nuclear
ban of foreign nuclear weapons, withdrew its Mediterane fleet, => Institutions moved to Belgium Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Brezhnev Doctrine 1962 Cuba missile crisis
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Cold War 14.08.1974 1984 Withdrawal of Greece NATO simulates
readmitted 1980 (with Turkish cooperation) 1984 NATO simulates manoeuvres + Soviet fear of a NATO first strike Double Track decision
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Post Cold War 1991 1994 - 1997 dissolution of reorganization
Warsaw Pact reorganization new forces of Headquarter wider forums regional cooperation 1990 Two Plus Four Treaty East Germany joined promise of no NATO east expansion? 1995 France rejoined NATOS´s Military Committee
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Post Cold War 1998 NATO-Russia Permanent Joint Council 1999
Hungary, Czech Republik and Poland joined 1999 Kosovo War
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After September 11 01.10.2001 10.02.2003 invoke of Artikle 5 - for
the first time France and Belgium vetoed the procedure of silent approval. Concerning the timing of protective measures for Turkey in case of a possible war with Iraq. NATO - ISAF in Afghanistan First time in NATO history: mission outside north Atlantic area.
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From now to ... 29.03.2004 Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania,
Slovenia, Slovakia, Bulgaria and Romania joined
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... Future ? since 2007 NATO missile defense? April 2009 enlargement
Ukraine Georgia ? April 2009 enlargement Croatia, Albania
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NATO Member countries 28 Nations Belgium Bulgaria Canada Czech rep.
Denmark Estonia France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Turkey United Kingdom United States Albania Croatia
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+ 24 Partner countries of the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council
EAPC (established29 May 1997 ) a multilateral forum for regular coordination, consultation and dialogue of NATO’s cooperation with Partner countries to improve relations between NATO and non-NATO countries in Europe and those parts of Asia on the European periphery and also the bilateral relationships developed between NATO and individual Partner countries with the Partnership for Peace programme (established in 1994 )where each country may choose the extent of its participation.
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Future enlargement At the NATO summit in Bucharest, (April 2008)
Albania and Croatia were officially invited to start accession talks signed the accession protocols on July 9, 2008 expected to formally join the alliance by April, 2009. Other potential candidate countries include Montenegro and Bosnia & Herzegovina Other possible, long neutral countries that might become members are Finland and Sweden. An invitation to the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia was blocked by Greece, pending resolution of the Macedonia naming dispute Cyprus was blocked by Turkey Russia continues to oppose further expansion. Expansion policy is seen by Moscow as a continuation of a Cold War attempt to surround and isolate Russia.
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NATO summits A summit meeting that is regarded as a
periodic opportunity for Heads of State and Heads of Government of NATO member countries to evaluate and provide strategic direction for Alliance activities important junctures in the alliance’s decision-making process on the highest level introduce new policy, invite new members into the alliance, launch major new initiatives, and build partnerships with non-NATO countries from the founding of NATO in 1949, there have been 23 NATO summits The last summit meeting to date was the 2008 Bucharest summit held on April 2008
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Structures Civilian structures Military structures
Agencies and institutions NATO headquarters: Boulevard Léopold III, B-1110 Brussels New headquartes finished Due to 2012 in Brussels
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CIVILIAN STRUCTURE
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Permanent Representatives and National Delegations
NATO Headquarters Permanent Representatives and National Delegations International Staff (IS) Public Diplomacy Division NATO Office of Security (NOS) Division of Political Affairs and Security Policy Division of Operations Division of Defence Policy and Planning NATO Office of Resources (NOR)
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NATO headquarters is home to national delegations
of member countries and to liaison offices or diplomatic missions of partner countries. There are approximately 4,000 people working at NATO Headquarters on a full-time basis. There are also about 300 members of missions of NATO's partners countries. There are approximately 1,200 civilian members of the International Staff or agencies located within the Headquarters and about 500 members of the International Military Staff, including 100 civilians.
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Who is who at NATO ? NATO is governed by its 28 member states
Each of the 28 members sends a delegation or mission to NATO’s headquarters The senior permanent member of each delegation is known as the Permanent Representative and is generally a senior civil servant or an experienced ambassador the Permanent Members form the North Atlantic Council (NAC) a senior political decision making body which meets together at least once a week has effective political authority powers of decision in NATO
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North Atlantic Council
also meets at higher levels involving Foreign Ministers, Defence Ministers or Heads of State or Government (HOSG) at these meetings major decisions regarding NATO’s policies are generally taken the Council has the same authority and powers of decision-making, and its decisions have the same status and validity, at whatever level it meets. The Council is the only body within the Alliance which derives its authority explicitly from the North Atlantic Treaty.
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The meetings of the North Atlantic Council are chaired by the Secretary General of NATO
when decisions have to be made, action is agreed upon on the basis of unanimity and common accord there is no voting or decision by majority
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NATO Secretary General
NATO Secretary General is a senior international statesman nominated by the member nations both as Chairman of the North Atlantic Council, Defence Planning Committee, Nuclear Planning Group and of other senior committees, and as Secretary General of NATO He also acts as principal spokesman of the Organisation in its external relations in communications and contacts with member governments. The current NATO Secretary General is Jaap de Hoop Scheffer. The current NATO Deputy Secretary General is Amb. Claudio Bisogniero.
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NATO International Staff
The work of the North Atlantic Council and its committees is supported by an International Staff It comprises the Office of the Secretary General six Divisions (Each Division is headed by an Assistant Secretary General (Principal Officials)) the office of Resources the Office of Security the Office of the Financial Controller independent International Board of Auditors The NATO Spokesman is James Appathurai
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This group is an advisory and administrative body that supports the work of the national delegations at different committee levels and assists in implementing their decisions. What are its authority, tasks, and responsibilities? The International Staff supports the process of consensus-building and decision-making as well as follows up on the decisions of NATO committees.
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MILITARY STRUCTURE
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The Military Committee
Allied Command Operations (ACO) Allied Command Transformation (ACT) Other NATO Command & Staff Organisations
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International Military Staff
is the executive agency of the Military Committee provides staff support to the Military Committee is responsible for the preparation of assessments, studies and other papers on NATO military matters ensures that decisions and policies on military matters are implemented by the appropriate NATO military bodies The IMS provides the essential link between the political decision-making bodies of the Alliance and the NATO Strategic Military Commanders (SACEUR and SACT) and their staffs. The IMS is headed by a Director, at the level of a three star general or flag officer, at present Lieutenant General P.J.M. Godderij, a Dutch Air Force officer
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NATO military operations
NATO's military operations are directed by Chairman of the NATO Military Committee and split into two Strategic Commands both commanded by a senior US officer assisted by a staff drawn from across NATO Before 2003 the Strategic Commanders were the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) the Supreme Allied Commander Atlantic (SACLANT) current arrangement Allied Command Transformation (ACT), responsible for transformation and training of NATO forces Allied Command Operations, responsible for NATO operations world wide
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Allied Command Operations
based in the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) Casteau, Belgium. ACO is headed by SACEUR, a US four star general with the dual-hatted role of heading US European Command, headquartered in Stuttgart, Germany. The current is General John Craddock, United States Army.
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Mission of the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe (SACEUR)
contributing to the peace, security and territorial integrity of Alliance member countries by assessing risks and threats, conducting military planning identifying and requesting the forces needed to undertake the full range of Alliance missions contributing to the Alliance’s crisis management arrangements providing for the effective defence of the territory of NATO
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ACO includes Joint Force Command Brunssum in the Netherlands
land component, Allied Land Component Command Headquarters Heidelberg at Heidelberg, Germany air component at Ramstein in Germany naval component at the Northwood Headquarters in the northwest suburbs of London Joint Force Command Naples in Italy land component in Madrid air component at Izmir, Turkey naval component in Naples, Italy Directs KFOR in Kososvo Joint Command Lisbon
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Allied Command Transformation
based in the former Allied Command Atlantic headquarters in Norfolk, Virginia, United States. headed by the Supreme Allied Commander Transformation (SACT), a US four-star general or admiral with the dual-hatted role as commander US Joint Forces Command (COMUSJFCOM) Currently General James N. Mattis Strategic Objectives: Provide appropriate support to NATO missions and operations. Lead NATO military ransformation. Improve relationships, interaction and practical cooperation with partners, nations and international organisations.
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3. CASE STUDY (KOSOVO)
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NATO Objectives: Were set up on 12 April 1999 and 23 April 1999 in Washington including: - ‘a stop to all military action and the immediate ending of violence and repression’; ‘the withdrawal from Kosovo of the military, police and paramilitary forces; the stationing in Kosovo of an international military presence return of all refugees and displaced persons and;
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Air Strikes LASTED 77/78 DAYS 23 March the order was given to commence air strikes (Operation Allied Force) untill 10 June 1999 with no UN MANDATE. The first elements of KFOR entered Kosovo on 12 June By 20 June, the withdrawal of Serbian forces was complete
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3. Case Study (Kosovo) Resolution 1244 (June/1999)
Withdrawal of Yugoslovian Army Deployment in Kosovo (Civil and military presence/UNMIK) Demilitarizing the KLA (Kosovo Liberation Armee) Establishing security in which refugees can go back to theirs homes
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Lieutenant General Giuseppe Emilio Gay, Italian Army, assumed command of the Kosovo Force on 29 August 2008.
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KFOR STRUCTURE HEADQUARTER IN PRISTINA
Multinational Specialized Unit (MSU Primary Tasks Multi National Task Forces (Center/East/WEST/North) KFOR Tactical Reserve Manoeuvre Battalion (KTM) (can react to rapide changes of enviroment)
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Status quo NATO currently leads some 15 000 personell
March 2004 new violence between Albanians and Serbs occured Istanbul Summit 2005 17 February 2008 declaration of independence Conflict seems to be almost solved!
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3.2 Case Study (Afghanistan)
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NATO objectives: “This is one of the most challenging tasks NATO has ever taken on, but it is a critical contribution to international security” - NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer. to capture Osama bin Laden, destroy al-Qaeda, remove the Taliban regime which had provided support and safe harbor to al-Qaeda. The United States' Bush Doctrine stated that, as policy, it would not distinguish between al-Qaeda and nations that harbor them.
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Resolution 1386, 1413, 1444, 1510, 1563, 1776 and 1833 Establishment for of an International Security Assistance Force Member States to contribute personnel, equipment and other resources to the International Security Assistance Force Authorizes the Member States participating in the International Security Assistance Force to take all necessary measures to fulfil its mandate.
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Commander ISAF General David D. McKiernan
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Nato Structure: ISAF Command Structure
Based on the 16 April 2003 North Atlantic Council’s decision: NATO controls and coordinates the International Security Assistance Force in Afghanistan since 11 August 2003. NATO’s Allied Command Operations (ACO), based at the Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers in Europe (SHAPE), in Mons (Belgium), assumes the overall command of the operation. ACO’s subordinate headquarters, Allied Joint Force Command (JFC) Headquarters Brunssum (The Netherlands), under the leadership of Joint Force Commander General Egon Ramms (Germany). ISAF is composed of the Headquarters, the Air Task Force (ATF), the Regional Commands (RCs), the Forward Support Bases (FSB), and Provincial Reconstruction Teams (PRTs).
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. 28 NATO Members Belgium Bulgaria Canada Czech Republic Denmark Estonia France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Turkey United Kingdom United States Croatia Albania
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The Former Yoguslav Republic of Macedonia (1)
15 Non-Nato members ) Albania Australia Austria Azerbaijan Croatia Finland The Former Yoguslav Republic of Macedonia (1) Georgia Ireland New Zealand Sweden Jordan Singapore Ukraine United Arab Emirates
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Military Strength NATO - ISAF: 51,350 US: 19,950 UK: 8,745
Germany: 3,600 France: 2,785 Canada: 2,750 other countries: 13,520 Afghan National Army: 50,000 US non-ISAF troops: 28,300
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Status quo 60% of the country is relatively stable with no or very few major security incidents. The south of Afghanistan is still dangerous In the last two years the amount of incidents are risiıng Reconstruction of infrastructure Conflict still unsolved!
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3.2 Invasion of Iraq: Turning point
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Why NATO intervention in Kosova and Afghanistan, but not in Iraq?
Ethically wrong; Anti-war sentiments Negative effects Fear of american control on energy-transit routs Make a stand? illegitimacy
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Before the invasion of Iraq
Iraq: show that it did not posess WMD UN investigation US and Britain sent troops: US = UK =
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Iraqi government not cooperating: US assumed there were WMD
Rumsfeld: no decision regarding go to war Aim of the investigation: weather Iraqi government cooperated or not. US assumed there were WMD
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Pre-emptive strike ?? To prevent future attacks
Article 5 does not cover this Rightfully opposed Who is going to define a pre-emptive strike preventive war ?
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War on Iraq and NATO US pressed for cellective military strike, France, Belgium and Germany opposed Germany; would not invade Iraq even if UN mandate existed Chirac and Schroeder: decision announced in Paris together
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The request US request to advance military planning
Awacs early warning planes, Patriot missiles and special units To protect alliance-member Turkey
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Turkey and NATO TR parliament denied US to use Incirli, 2003
Spill-over effect France and Germany: large muslim and/ or Turkish population After Iraq: relations between TR and US strained
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Result US sanction on Belgium: damaged its economy
Firmer stand by France and Germany Invasion of Iraq
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Peoples sentiment Germany: anti-war sentiments
France: large opposition of muslim population ( m) Economy- politics ! US 9/11: victimization / heroic
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Debate: NATO future role and identity
Deep debate since end of Cold War Different views: 1) European contries: Russia still potential threat 2) Western countries: Focus only on Europe and defensive league 3) US: more active role
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Eastern Europe and U.S Eastern European members and potential members: reasons of self-protection More sympathetic to the U.S. view. Protect US role within NATO Benefits: deter Russia and commercial benefits
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Old and New Europe division?
The opposition of France and Germany "old Europe" New Europe: " the former Soviet-bloc countries Transfer some U.S. military assets to the new pro-U.S. NATO allies small, mobile forces at bases in Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, U.S. forces closer to the Middle East and the Caucasus
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4.0 Prospects for NATO's future
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"The fundamental guiding principle by which the Alliance works is that of common commitment and mutual co-operation among sovereign states in support of the indivisibility of security for all of its members".
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Two bloc within NATO? NATO into two blocs If two bloc emerge:
1) If there is no threat: NATO will be ineffective 2) If a threat exist: US-led bloc the leader
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NATO and EU incorporated/ complemetary relationship:
common security and defence policy established within NATO's framework Berlin plus agrrement from 2003: to keep european countries within NATO structures EU: increasing their military capabilities.
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Fragmentation NATO’s military relevance Military threat
Dependent on: sharing the same goals and solidarity as during the Cold War
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Cooperation and redefining NATO
Focus: on other security issues than just military security NATO's bi- and multilateral partnerships with non-NATO countries and other organizations Decreasing power: Missionless
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References Frances L. E., Steinhäusler, F... Nato And Terrorism [electronic resource] : On Scene: New Challenges for First Responders and Civil Protection, Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands, 2007. Kaplan, L.. The United States and NATO : The Formative Years, Lexington, Ky : The University Press of Kentucky Lesser, I.. NATO looks south: new challenges and new strategies in the Mediterranean , Santa Monica, CA : RAND, 2000. Rynning, S.. NATO Renewed, edited by S. Rynning, Palgrave Macmillan US, 2005. Stoltenberg, J.. “To carry Out NATO’s Mission”, Vital Speeches of the Day. July 2016, Vol. 82 Issue 7, p Yenigun, C.. Gulf Security, “NATO and the Istanbul Cooperation Initiative”, (in) NATO’S Approach to Gulf Cooperation: Lessons Learned and Future Challenges, Firuz Demir Yasamis (ed), Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, 2015,
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