1. Canadian International Development Platform
Presentation to Africa Study Group
Aniket Bhushan
May 29, 2017
@CIDPNSI

2. Context
Platform and Data Report: Flows and trends
Forthcoming analysis and engagement

5. Low hanging fruit picked: hardest mile, implications for risk, shared prosperity in low growth new normal
The number of Low Income Countries more than halved from 63 in 2000 to 31 in 2015 (according to the World Bank’s income classification)
Extreme poverty has declined considerably: as a share of world population from approx.
35% in 1990 – to
28% in 1999
15% in 2010
11% in 2013 (at $1.90/day PPP)  
However, between 3% and 7% of the world’s population will live in extreme poverty in 2030
In the best-case scenario, this equates to over 400mn people living in extreme poverty in 2030 
Over 80% of the extreme poor will be in sub-Saharan Africa
60% will be in fragile countries (mostly in sub-Saharan Africa)

8. Development strategy, not just update to aid policy

9. Canada’s foreign assistance is relatively well targeted: poverty and need focused, and Africa
Partners
Multilaterals: 56%
Governmental: 15.8%
Canadian CS: 15.6%
Largest Canadian
Micronutrient
CFGB (foodgrains)
Care
Save
Plan
World Vision
AKFC
Big picture
Above 2015
2016 similar: Africa = 39%; $2.1bn, largest share
GAC project basis higher = 48% (2015)
2005/06 to 2014/15 = $15.7bn worth projects in Africa
Primarily health (21.3%); humanitarian (16.3%); educ + government CS = +60%

13. International trade

14. Trade pattern: as expected – small share, negative BoT, highly concentrated partners & products
SSA (all income) Total (two-way) around: $6bn (i.e. in 2016, about ½ that of SA; 1/10th LAC)
CAGR : approx. 9% , faster than overall growth (only 2.7%); however 2011 – 2016 CAGR -9.6%
Only makes up 0.5% approx. of total trade
Over 50% ($3.2bn 2016) two: Nigeria, South Africa
Only Ivory Coast, Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Ethiopia, DRC > $100mn (2016)
Negative BoT: -$1.1bn (2016)
Over 52% of imports mineral fuels, oil et al. (not incl. mining ores, slag etc, other primary e.g. cocoa – up to 65%)
Canadian exports: primarily cereals (food grains etc. 26%)

15. Trade vs. Aid Poorer (LDC, low and lower middle only) SSA countries
2016
Total aid flows: approx. $2.1billion < Total imports: approx. $2.5billion

16. Investment: FDI fractional, data blind-spots, methods assumptions
Total stock of Cad FDI in SSA (2015): approx. $5 billion
CAGR 2000 – 2015: 20% ; compared to overall 7.2%
Share of total: 0.5%
Highly concentrated (partners, sectors)
Data highly uncertain: suppression for confidentiality; methods
E.g. 51/177 countries data suppressed or NA (2016); several in SSA
Alt methods: E.g. mining sector, asset valuation perspective (CMAA- NRCan) $31billion (2011) vs. total FDI stock $4.3billion (StatsCan) ; mine output perspective (CIDP) $12bn (2012) vs. total FDI stock $1.5bn

17. Trade and Investment agreements: laying the groundwork
89 total agreements, all kinds, at all stages – 54 in force
Most are Free Trade or Foreign Investment Protection Agreements:
27 FTAs, 52 FIPAs – total 48 in force
12 FTAs in force : zero in Africa (only one negotiating, Morocco)
36 FIPAs in force : 8 in Africa (MENA incl) + 2 signed (Burkina, Nigeria) + 3 negotiating (Ghana, Kenya, Tunisia)
Egypt (1997); Tanzania (2013); Benin (2014); Cote d’Ivoire (2015); Mali (2016); Senegal (2016); Cameroon (2016); Guinea (2017)

18. Migration and remittances: difference in pattern from other developing regions

19. Migration and remittances: difference in pattern from other developing regions
Overall refugee’s make up approx. 4.3% of new migrants (2000 – 2014, both temp and perm)
SSA: refugee’s approx. 24% of all new migrants
5 major: Somalia, DRC, Ethiopia, Eretria, Sudan (make up 65% SSA refugees, 15% of SSA migrants; all types)
Growth in international students: e.g. Nigeria (2000 to 2014 approx. 12x growth, implies: $ mn in tuition in 2014 > $117.6 mn in foreign aid in 2014)
Remittance outflow: global 3-4x ODA; Canada all (109 dev) 4x ODA; but SSA $830mn i.e. less than ½ ODA (mostly Nigeria, Kenya)

20. Engagement and analysis
Responding to the changing global development context: How can Canada deliver?
Data Report 2017
Future of development finance and CdnDFI