1. 7th International Scientific Conference on Energy and Climate Change, Greece, Athens
8-10 October, 2014
Kostis Palamas building 2nd Floor Akadimias 48
Horizon scanning for social sustainability in the bioenergy value chain
MBA Elena Fedorova
Doctoral student
Docent, Dr. Eva Pongrácz
Adjunct professor
Thule Institute, NorTech Oulu, Finland

2. Social Impacts in Bioenergy
Social impacts associated with bioenergy production activities recently became more noticeable.
The demand for tools that can be used in anticipatory intelligence techniques, such as modelling, tendency analyses, scanning and simulation is on the rise.
Horizon scanning method helps to identify potential social issues related to the bioenergy sector, which benefits the future research and informs stakeholders, policy developers and strategic planners about emerging issues

3. Expectations from bioenergy

4. Horizon-Scanning method
Scoping
Screening
Issue tree
Gathering info
Literature search
Expert workshop
Watching trends
Trend analysis
Making sense
Global tendency
Agree on the response
Backcasting

5. Consumer behaviour change
Issue tree
Threats
Issues
Opportunities
Labour rights
Labour
Training, employment
Indigenous rights
Human rights
Empowering
Land use rights
Society
Rural development
Food security
Eco- nomy
Energy security
Consumer behaviour change
Product develop- ment
Marketing communication
Water access
Environ- ment
Diversity of energy sources

6. Results
Policy Development and Promotion
Economic Development and
Growth
Technology Development and
Transfer
Stakeholders
Concern
Using Horizon scanning methodology we been able to reveal that certain driving forces may strongly affect future tendencies of bioenergy industry development. The four major forces are:
Socio-economic and technological reaction on this major forces, showed Global Tendencies that may potentially occur in the future for bioenergy industry development

7. Tendencies and Driving Forces
Policy development and promotion
Economic development and growth
Technology development and transfer
Stakeholders concern
Aggressive promotion, little policy development
Technology development and transfer for large facilities
High in developed countries, low in developing
Stakeholders not aware of social issues
Conservative
Always in continued development
Moderate growth globally
Moderate involvement
Moderate
Well-balanced
Well-developed in connection with small-scale bio projects
Moderate in developed countries, high in developing
Good technology development and transfer of small plants
Highly concerned and engaged
Decentralized

8. Future Policy-Making challenges and Potential
Focused case studies of bioenergy companies and institution in several countries and regions should be performed for better comprehension of the bioenergy social sustainability phenomenon.
Studies similar to horizon-scanning can be effectively integrated into the social sustainability reporting process showing alarming signals and in the same time grasping the societal contexts behind the entire scanning process of identifying, evaluating.
Diverse information on emerging issues may give an advantage to policy-makers, investors and stakeholder in preventing harmful issues before they arise

9. Thank you
Contact information:
Thule Institute, NorTech Oulu, FI University of Oulu, P.O.Box 7300, Finland
Corresponding author,