1. Renewable Energy and SA GHG Emission Reduction System
Portfolio Committee 25 October 2016

2. Background
In 2015, Cabinet approved South Africa’s climate change mitigation system framework. The system includes the following key elements:
A carbon budget for each company;
Desired emissions reduction outcomes for key economic sectors
Pollution prevention plans by companies with carbon budgets;
A reporting system, to gather information on the actual emissions of users;
A variety of other measures to be applied to support and/or complement the carbon budget system including a carbon tax.
The system was introduced in phases.
Phase one ( ) will be voluntary as there is no legal basis to set emission limits for sectors or companies.
Phase 2 (post-2020 period) will only become mandatory when climate change response legislation is in place.

3. WHAT IS THE SA GHG EMISSION REDUCTION SYSTEM?
An organized structure that consists of interrelated and interdependent elements that are critical for the country’s greenhouse gas emission reduction
These elements directly and indirectly influence one another to maintain the existence of the system, and will include a range of measures as contemplated in the National Climate Change Response White Paper (NCCRWP), aimed at achieving the overall national goal

4. FRAMEWORK WAS APPROVED BY CABINET IN 2015
Phase 1
2016 to 2020
AQA Provisions

5. Phase 2
Beyond 2020
Climate Change Act

6. Key Mitigation Sectors

7. Summary of mitigation potential for the RE energy measures and installed capacity required
Abatement measure
2020
2030
2050
ktco2e MW
Renewable Energy
Onshore wind
12,524
5,600
33,396
13,600
78,794
32,000
Solar photovoltaic (concentrated)
8,921
3,700
20,977
8,700
54,227
22,500
Concentrated solar power (parabolic trough)
1,966
700
5,897
1,700
11,009
3,000
Biomass
900
250
2,699
750
11,471
1,500
Import (hydro) -
1,695
3,489
8,947
Domestic (hydro)
Total RE
24,311
10,250
64,664
28,239
164,448
62, 489

8. EMISSION REDUCTION SYSTEM PHASE 1
Phase 1 carbon budget design document consulted with business.
Carbon budgets finalised for 18 companies
Pollution Prevention Plan Regulations to be promulgated soon
Interface of carbon tax and carbon budgets: Carbon Budget companies gets 5% tax allowance in the current Carbon Tax design

9. EMISSION REDUCTION SYSTEM FOR THE SECOND AND SUBSEQUENT PHASES
Key issue: phase 2 of GHG mitigation system requires a legal basis.
Key elements below:
Step 1: GHG Inventory
Step 2: Mitigation Potential Analysis
Step 3: Policies and Measures
Step 4: National emissions trajectory
Step 5: Desired Emission Reduction Outcomes
Step 6: Carbon Budgets
Step 7: Mitigation Plans
Step 8: Monitoring and Evaluation

10. International commitments
2021
GHG Inventory
Policies and Measures 2
STEP 9
Compliance Review of DEROs,
Carbon budgets
2022
Mitigation Potential Analysis 3
DEROs 3
Carbon Budgets 3
Global stocktaking
2023
2024
Review of LEDs
2025
Policies and Measures 3
INDC
Submission 2
Web-based M&E System 2
2027
2030
Submission 3
Web-based M&E System Update 3
2028
DEROs 4
National Emissions Trajectory 4
Mitigation Potential Analysis 4
Carbon Budgets 4
2029
Policies and Measures 4
Mitigation Plans 4
National Com
BUR
BUR
STEP 3
Policies and Measures
Assessment 1
GHG Inventory
STEP 6
Carbon Budgets
STEP 5
DEROs 2
STEP 4
National Emissions Trajectory
STEP 2
Mitigation Potential Analysis 2
STEP 1
2000 – 2012
GHG Inventory Management System
- GHG Emissions Reporting System (via NAEIS)
STEP 7
Mitigation Plans 2
STEP 8
Web-Based M&E 1
National Emissions Trajectory 3
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2026
Compliance Review of DEROs,
Carbon budgets
Mitigation Plans 3
BUR
National Com
BUR
International commitments
2009 Pledge Assessment
LEDs
National Com
BUR
GHG Inventory
GHG Inventory
BUR
Note: red boxes not necessarily part of the system. They represent international commitments
Mitigation System Elements

11. Renewable Energy Developments
South Africa has significant solar and wind resources
Renewable energy technology costs have dropped dramatically and this presents an opportunity for the scale up of solar and wind technologies
RE implementation - REIPPPP since 2011:
8.1 GW of RE allocated for procurement in all bid windows
Approx 2.5GW operational
2014: PV and wind production -1% of electricity supply
2015: PV and wind production – 2% of electricity supply
First half of 2016: PV and wind – 2.2% electricity supply

12. Summary of the REIPPP programme in terms of Ministerial Determinations (as of 31 March 2016)
Bid window
Capacity
Bid window 1 MW
Bid window 2 MW
Bid window 3 MW
Bid window 3.5
200 MW CSP
Bid window 4 and 4 additional
2 205 MW

13. Summary of the REIPPP programme in terms of Ministerial Determinations (as of 31 March 2016) cont…
Bid window
Capacity
Bid window Expedited
1 800 MW
Bid window 5
1 566 MW
Small renewables First Stage Two
49 MW
Small renewables Second Stage Two
51 MW
Small Renewables Bid Window 3
100 MW

14. CSIR Analysis of REIPPPP tariffs
All tariffs
in R/kWh
Base Month/Year
REIPPPP
BW 1
BW 2
BW 3
BW 4
BW 4 additional
Coal IPP BW1
BW 4 expedited
Bid submission
4 Nov 2011
5 March 2012
19 Aug 2013
18 Aug 2014
2 Nov 2015
11 Nov 2015
Solar PV
632 MW
417 MW
435 MW
415MW
398 MW
520 MW
April 2014
3.29
1.96
1.05
0.79
0.85
0.56
April 2015
3.44
2.05
1.10
0.82
0.89
0.58
April 2016
3.65
2.18
1.17
0.87
0.95
0.62
Wind
634 MW
563 MW
787 MW
676 MW
686 MW
650 MW
1.36
1.07
0.78
0.72
1.42
1.12
0.65
0.75
1.51
1.19
0.69
0.80
Coal
863 MW
0.93
0.97
1.03

15. Emission reduction from the REIPPPP
Energy produced and supplied to the grid GWh
Emission reduction realised from the programme - , 8.4 Mton CO2 equivalent