1. Senior Consultant, The Annie E. Casey Foundation
The Undercount of Young Children in the U.S. Census: National, State County and Local Perspectives
Dr. William P. O’Hare
Senior Consultant, The Annie E. Casey Foundation
Presentation at the Community Indicators Consortium Impact Seminar, Washington DC
September 2014.

2. Outline of Presentation
Background on undercount of young children
National Level
State Level
County Level
Local Level
Conclusions

3. How Do We Know Who Is Missed In The Census?
Demographic Analysis (DA)
Compares census results to an independent estimate based largely on administrative records on births and deaths and estimates of international migration
Dual-Systems Estimates (DSE)
Compares census results to a second follow-up survey conducted in selected areas (Called CCM in 2010)

4. Census is higher
Census is lower

5. Black Alone or in Combination 247,000 -6.3 Hispanic 414,000 -7.5
Difference Between 2010 Census Counts and DA Estimates for Children Under Age 5, by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin
Number
Percent Difference
Total
972,000
-4.6
Female
471,000
-4.5
Male
501,000
Black Alone or in Combination
247,000
-6.3
Hispanic
414,000
-7.5
Not Black Alone or in Combination and Not Hispanic
309,000
-2.6
Note: Estimates by Hispanic origin are only available for the December 2010 DA release. Responses of "Some Other Race"
from the 2010 Census are modified. This results in differences between the population for specific race categories shown
for the 2010 Census population in this table versus those in the original 2010 Census data. For more information, see
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Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census and 2010 Demographic Analysis, December 2010 release, and May 2012 release.

6. Percent Difference
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census and 2010 Demographic Analysis, May 2012 release.

7. One Implication of Net Undercounts in Census
Census counts are the basis for Census Bureau’s yearly state and county population estimates for a decade.
Population estimates are used to weight key surveys like ACS, CPS, SIPP.
Census undercount of a group is reflected in the population estimates and survey weights for a decade.

8. Key Findings At National Level
There is a large net undercount of young children (age 0-4).
The large undercounts for young children are concentrated among Blacks and Hispanics.
The net undercount for young children has increased dramatically since 1980.

9. State Level Findings

10. Summary Statistics for State Net Undercounts of Population Age 0 to 4
Mean Numeric Undercount for States
-21,114
Mean Percentage Undercount for States
-3.4

18. County Level Findings

22. Local Level

23. Local Level No Undercount Measures, but
Census Bureau Planning Data Base:
Census Mail Return rates for Census Tracts (and Block Groups)
Low-Response Scores (Model Based Estimates)

26. Summary
Young Children have higher net undercount rates than any other age group in 2010.
The net undercount rate of young children has grown dramatically since 1980.
The net undercount of young children is concentrated in a few states and large counties.
Need to develop understanding of WHY young children are missed in the census.
One focus of 2020 Census planning should be urban households with young Black or Hispanic children