1. The ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Reinforcing Institutional Capacity for Timely Food Security Emergency Response to Slow Onset Crises at Scale

2. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework

4. Why do we need this?

5. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Research shows us that: Lack of clear and predictive livelihood and market analysis, so responses aren’t appropriate or adequate Contingency planning lacks a robust understanding of livelihoods and markets, with few indicators about who needs to act and when; Little formal response analysis takes place, and does not focus on an overall analysis of needs; Traditional situation analysis begins post-shock, too late to conduct a response analysis that enables people to protect their livelihoods.

6. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework What does the SRAF consist of? Critical features of the Situation and Response Analysis Framework: SRAF is part of emergency preparedness and contingency planning. SRAF is an on-going process. SRAF addresses how interventions or the work of any single agency fits into the larger picture of what other agencies, national governments and local communities themselves are doing. SRAF causal factors as well as the outcomes themselves of any given situation. The SRAF was developed embracing the following approaches: Household Economic Analysis (HEA) Market system analysis Early analysis Repeated analysis Transparent analysis and planning

7. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework SRAF Objectives SRAF is designed to support better short-term responses to slow-onset food security crises. Better means, Early: to protect assets Appropriate: to peoples livelihoods Proportionate: to need

8. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Timing is Critical: we need to analyse, prepare and respond early to protect lives and livelihoods Understanding people: it is necessary to understand livelihoods, the markets they depend on and the impact of a crisis thereon Rapid Funding Mechanisms: understand the resources required, to take appropriate action and release funds before a crisis peaks Responses based on need: supporting early, context-appropriate, short-term responses to meet needs and mitigate impacts Repeat, repeat, repeat: response analysis must be iterative to be relevant An adaptive framework: the framework can be used by government, donors, UN agencies, NGOs ERC SRAF Guiding Principles

9. The Framework

10. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Planning Needs Assessment Monitoring of hazard, livelihood and market parameters Analysis Action Shock Forecasts of hazard Immediate Food Assistance The traditional approach

11. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Early Analysis Develop Strategic Priorities Analysing the impact of different shocks; quantify needs & geographic focus Early Planning Identify response options, start up times and key milestones Baseline Assessment Baseline Assessment Livelihood Assessment Market Assessment Background review; historical data Early Action Timely and appropriate humanitarian assistance in the short-medium term Forecasts of hazard Update Scenarios & Contingency Plan Monitoring of hazard, livelihood and market parameters Engagement with communities, government, donors, UN, NGOs and private sector The SRAF Reducing vulnerability and contributing to resilience building in the medium-long term Contingency funds Shock

12. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework 2 MONTH LEAD SRAF What this means: a timeline Traditional Approach The SRAF Response Lead

13. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework When and where the SRAF is valuable Requirement for quantitative and detailed evidence for interventions, responses, programme design is a priority. Detailed data at household and local level is available to conduct detailed analysis of food and income gap. Participation of local stakeholders including government is secured. Contexts where shocks are repeated and predictable through forecasts. Particularly slow onset crises such as drought Commitment to Technical prerequisites: -HEA is available or will be conducted -PCMMA is available or will be conducted Programming aims to embrace principles of market based approaches. Funding commitment exists to a) repeatedly run the response analysis and b) intervene early when evidence When to use the SRAF

14. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Baseline Assessments: the two pillars Market analysis Livelihood Analysis Pre-crisis Market Mapping and Analysis (PCMMA) Household Economy Analysis Rapid Household Economy Analysis

15. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Pre-Crisis Market Mapping and Analysis

16. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework The Household Economy Approach

17. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework The HEA Dashboard

18. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Early Analysis Step B: Develop detailed scenario modelling Step A: Map livelihoods calendar Step C: Determine strategic objectives Early Analysis Process Identify Hazard, Livelihoods And Market Monitoring Parameters

19. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework CASE STUDY: Marsabit Water Access One of the scenarios considered during a Response Analysis workshop in Marsabit, Kenya in October 2013 was “Below Average Short Rains” in November and December. Step A: Map Livelihoods Calendar Changes in the quantities of households key sources of food, income and expenditure Changes in the price of households key sources of food, income and expenditure Changes in Non-food factors such as Water, Health, Nutrition, Education Changes in Prices and Quantities used as an input for developing scenarios in Step B Changes in Non-food factors are used to develop Strategic Objectives in Step C Changes in Market Chain, Market Environment and Infrastructure and Services

20. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Step B: Develop detailed scenarios To quickly model the impact of a forecast hazard you will need to use the HEA Dashboard for the rapid development of quantified scenarios in the SRAF. o The population of the Livelihood Zones o Projected Changes in Prices and Quantities from the Crisis Calendar developed in Step A o Price Data for the Reference Year The projected changes in household’s sources of food, income and expenditure can be summarized in the Key Parameters template.

21. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Step C: Determine Strategic Objectives Using the results worksheet of your HEA Dashboard developed in Step B, you should develop strategic objectives that address the projected needs in the scenario developed in Step B. These projected needs can be different for different wealth groups and whether they face a survival or livelihoods deficit.

22. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Early Planning Step E: Identify agency priorities and parameters Step D: Select appropriate interventions Step F: Map start-up timelines and prepare Early Planning Process Monitor hazard, livelihood and market parameters – and refine models and update plans Communicate to partners, communities and donors

23. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Step D: Select Appropriate Interventions

24. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Step E: Identify Agency Priorities and Parameters Using the selected interventions, analyse what your agency has implement over the past 3 or 4 years, and what is currently being implemented by other agencies in the area. Objective and InterventionsAgencyStrategic Partner  To protect prime shoats from loss or stress sales (prime breeding stocks) of 65,000 very poor and poor Agro-pastoralists for 6 months (November to April) 1.Livestock feeding 1.Livestock vaccination campaigns 1.Strategic deworming 1.Destocking 1.Support District Veterinary office in management and treatment of livestock diseases 1.Provision of water for the livestock

25. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Step F: Map Start-Up Timelines and Prepare The first step in mapping your start-up timelines and decision dates is to identify the “windows of opportunity” for the interventions that you have selected for your agency.

26. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Early Action Process React to changes in hazard, livelihood and market parameter data and re-run modelling Implement range of timely and appropriate interventions Use timelines for decision-making processes Early Action Feed into IPC technical working groups/clusters Monitor impact of activities Responses that are sustainable and foster resilient livelihoods through ongoing protection, promotion and adaptation

27. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework SRAF and Responding to System Challenges Discussions with operational agencies, donors and Governments revealed that improvements in livelihood analysis and contingency planning would not lead directly to early response. Early response were constrained by a series of ‘systems problems’: Local Consensus about Livelihoods and vulnerability Early Funding Local Coordination Agency Preparedness Flexible long-term funding Early warning: predictive and analytical

28. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Coordination: o The SRAF sits alongside and complements Early Warning / Early Action systems, providing predictive and timely analysis where missing and providing alternative analysis where EW/EA is absent Funding o The SRAF can provide an ideal mechanism for determining when to release these crisis modifier funds – and where to target them. o Where early funding is not available the SRAF can provide practical, programmatic evidence that can be used to support advocacy for early funding. Implementation plans o The SRAF process is to understand the windows of opportunity, the operations and funding start-up times and to work backwards, to understand what are the key decision points for the timely implementation of certain interventions. SRAF and Responding to System Challenges

29. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework SRAF and Responding to System Challenges

30. SRAF in action

31. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework Save the Children is implementing a two-year, £10 million DFID funded project, using the Response Analysis process to prepare a Crisis Modifier Operational Plan (CMOP) for two governorates. The process revealed that the £500,000 Crisis Modifier fund would be too low to meet needs the scenario of a food price increase. The SRAF can therefore contribute to the design of longer-term livelihoods programs by helping to identify the vulnerability of specific populations to common hazards. Pilots and Results: RA, Yemen, June 2014

32. ERC Situation and Response Analysis Framework HTTP://WWW.SRAF-GUIDELINES.ORG/