1. National Institute of Disaster Management
DROUGHT
Dr Anil K Gupta
Associate Professor
National Institute of Disaster Management
2008

2. DROUGHT HAZARD
Most complex and least understood of all natural hazards
Difficult to know its start and termination
Often accumulates slowly over a period of time
Effects linger for years after the event
Difficult to quantify the impacts and provision of relief
As damage is seldom structural unlike floods and cyclone

3. Understanding drought?
Drought definitions?
Evidence of drought usually seen in rainfall records.
Crop failures, joblessness and famines:
Political noises for drought declaration
Relief works
Calamity fund releases
Schemes and short term programmes
Drought is a period of drier-than-normal conditions that lead to water related problems.
Question: Act of God Vs. Act of Man Human Made Act of God

4. DROUGHT DEFINITIONS CONCEPTUAL OPERATIONAL DISCIPLINARY
Make people understand the concept
important in establishing drought policy
Example: Drought is a protracted period of deficient precipitation resulting in extensive damage to crops, resulting in loss of yield
OPERATIONAL
identify the beginning, end, and degree of severity of a drought
Based on the degree of departure of climatic variable from historical average
British: 15 consecutive days rainfall less than or equal 0.25mm
Russian: Period of 10 days total rain 5mm or less
India : Annual rain is 75% or less than normal
DISCIPLINARY
METEOROLOGICAL
AGRICULTURAL / VEGETATION
HYDROLOGICAL
SOCIO – ECONOMIC
Drought types can occur separately or simultaneously

5. DROUGHT DEFINITIONS DISCIPLINARY METEOROLOGICAL
precipitation’s departure from normal over some period of time
period: monthly, seasonal, yearly
definitions are usually region-specific
based on a thorough understanding of regional climatology
precede other kinds of drought
AGRICULTURAL / VEGETATION
availability of soil water to support crop growth
Example: when the root zone of crop has less than 30% of the available soil moisture
Depends on water holding capacity of soils and infiltration capacity (slope, soil type)
has a lag of few weeks with precipitation departures
HYDROLOGICAL
effect of precipitation shortfalls on surface or subsurface water supply (i.e., streamflow, reservoir and lake levels, ground water)
Has a considerable time lag with precipitation departures
Recovery is slow and long
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
Reflects relationship between the supply and demand for economic goods that is dependent on precipitation (water, forage, livestock, hydro-electricity etc.)

6. Natural and Social Dimensions of Drought
Decreasing emphasis on the natural event (precipitation deficiencies)
Increasing emphasis on water/natural resource management
Increasing complexity of impacts and conflicts
Hydrological
Agricultural
Meteorological
Socio-economic
Time/Duration of the event

7. Question again: Natural or ?? Man-made
Types of drought
Meteorological
Hydrological
Agricultural
Question again: Natural or ?? Man-made
Environmental ? that naturally rejuvenates, stores & provides
Socio-economic ? that suffers scarcity: Quantity OR Quality ?

8. AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT TYPES
Depending on timing of shortfall (India Specific)
Early Season Drought
Dry spells immediately at sowing or after sowing
Mid Season Drought
Breaks in the monsoon if occurred during the vegetative phase of crop growth
Late Season Drought
Early cessation of rainy season and hastening the process of crop development to forced maturity
Apparent Drought
Rainfall in the region may be adequate for one crop but not for others

9. Key Drought Indicators
Climate variables (e.g., precip., temp.)
Reservoir and lake levels
Soil moisture
Ground water
Snow pack
Stream flow
Vegetation Vigour

10. CHARACTERIZING DROUGHT
DROUGHT INDICES
A drought index is typically a single number, far more useful than raw data for decision making
Drought indices assimilate thousands of bits of data on rainfall, snowpack, streamflow & other water supply indicators into a comprehensible big picture
Allow quantitative assessment of intensity, duration, spatial extent of anomalous climatic conditions
Can be used to trigger certain anti-drought actions
Helps policy maker to compare drought across seasons or regions
A communication tool for diverse audience : to better explain the complex relationships

11. View point: outside a political manual or drought declaration
DROUGHT SEQUENCE
Meteorological
Hydrological
Environment
Habitation
Agriculture
Ecosystems
Socio-economic Distress

12. Drought in India 68% India vulnerable
Covers penninsular and western India – primarily arid, semi-arid and sub-humid regions
states: Karnataka (14), Gujrat (12), Maharashtra (11), Rajasthan (12), Tamilnadu (8), MP (10), AP (8), Bihar (6), UP (6), Haryana (4), Orissa (4), WB (3), J&K (2), Jharkhand (1), Chhattisgarh (1)

13. Groundwater depletion
50% total irrigation in country dependent on GW
60% of irrigation food prod. From GW
GW table decline 1-2 mtrs/year in regions N Gujrat, S Raj., Saurastra, TN (Madurai & Coimbature distt.), Karnataka (Kolar), AP (Rayalseema), parts of Punjab & Haryana
10% blocks overexploited (CWC): beyond critical level; risk growing at 5.5% yearly
61% hydro-geo blocks of Punjab categorised 10% grey (zero)
Man-made activity
Nature offers remedy

14. DROUGHTS IN INDIA
68 % of area is vulnerable on account of low to medium rainfall
Out of 141 m ha net sown area, only 40% is irrigated
Between , India witnessed 22 major droughts and 5 of them were severe
32% area has drought frequency less than three years
The 2002 drought is severest in last 130 years, affected 56% area and livelihood of 300 million people in 18 States

15. India- Rainfed Region Irrigated area (> 30% irrigation)
Geographical area
328.7 m.ha
Net cultivated area
139.7 m.ha
Net Rainfed area
85.7 m.ha
Net Irrigated area
Gross irrigated area
54.0 m.ha
75.14 m.ha
Irrigated area (> 30% irrigation)
Rainfed area (< 30% irrigation )

16. IMPACTS OF DROUGHT
Shortages in food production due to failure of crops;
Shortages of fodder and drinking water for cattle, migration of livestock populations, and even a decrease in the animal population
Shortages of resources for agricultural operations during the subsequent year as a result of decreases in the animal population; and
Deforestation to meet the fuel shortage for cooking in rural areas because of non-availability of agricultural wastes and crop residues

17. Selected factors influencing vulnerability to drought
Population growth
Population migration
Urbanization
Environmental values/awareness
Land use changes
Environmental degradation/desertification
Technology
Government policies

18. Societal changes can increase or decrease this coping range.
Drought vulnerability is a variable.
Within every society, there is a certain capacity to cope with drought.
Societal changes can increase or decrease this coping range.
Probability
P (x)
Coping range
Drought
Flooding
X (e.g. precipitation, soil moisture, etc.)

19. Socio-economic drought
Short Supply in Lean Season
Less water Water unfit for use
Less rain Less storage Naturally Polluted
Climatic Surface Ground Human activity
Human - Ecosystems Natural
- Engineered

20. DROUGHT MANAGEMENT STRATEGY
Close monitoring of the emerging drought scenario so as develop an advance warning system
Relief measures required for providing immediate succour to the affected population and the upkeep of the cattle wealth, and if possible to integrate it with long term objectives and
Hammering out an alternative crop strategy for maximum possible retrieval of the Kharif crop and a better ensuing Rabi crop

21. Drought Management System in India
Monitoring
Preparedness
Declaration
Mitigation
Prevention
Response

22. DROUGHT FORECASTING
Indian Meteorological Department’s Long-range Forecast on the basis of its national network of rainfall observatories
National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) provides medium-range weather forecasts (3–10 days in advance)
Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA) assesses drought through six agro-meteorological observatories in country

23. Drought Early Warning and Response System
CROP STABILISATION
RAINFALL MONITORING
CENTRAL R E S V O I
RESERVOIR WATER BUDGETING
NATIONAL
CROP
WEATHER
WATCH
GROUP
STATE
FOOD / NUTRITION SECURITY
DISTRICT
EMPLOYMENT GENERATION
SUB-DISTRICT
DRINKING WATER
CROP MONITORING
VILLAGE
Early warning of drought is felt need for mitigating the impact
It helps in generating response and activating programmes
The National Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) acts as Early Warning System
CWWG in Central Ministry of Agriculture meets every Monday to take stock of emerging weather scenario, water stock, crop situation, inputs availability, pest & diseases etc.
In emerging crisis situation, responses are generated in the administrative hierarchy
Programmes modules are activated
Monitoring intensified
CATTLE CARE
Programmes
Early Warning
Response 23

24. DROUGHT MONITORING
IMD identifies drought in all the meteorological sub-divisions (aridity anomaly index)
Monitoring of Water level in reservoirs (CWC)
National Agricultural Drought Assessment and Monitoring System (NADAMS)
Inter-Ministerial Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG) provides the trigger for activating drought response system

25. DROUGHT DECLARATION Declaration on the basis of agricultural losses
The system of estimating losses varies from state to state
In Gujarat, Annewari System
In Maharashtra, Paisewari system
In Andhra Pradesh, remote sensing data is used
In Chhattisgarh, it is done on the basis of rainfall deficiency

26. Drought Preparedness Early warning Agro advisory services
Maintenance of Irrigation system
Contingency Planning
Public awareness on drought / water conservation
Arrangement for drinking water, food supplies
Construction of deep wells, repair of defunct ones
Soil & Crop Management Techniques
Intercropping / diversification
Planting density / Thinning / Weed management
Tillage
Mulching
Integrated Watershed Management
Water Conservation Techniques
Afforestration

27. DROUGHT REFIEF Restructuring of credit,
Commencement of relief works through SGRY/ Food for Works Program
Distribution of foodgrains through Food for Works / Employment Generation Programs
Provision of drinking water,
Setting up of fodder depots / cattle camps
Contingency Crop Planning
Waiver of land revenue,
Concessions in electricity bill for agricultural pumps
Waiver of school and examination fee
Health care measures

28. DROUGHT MITIGATION Development of suitable technologies
Water stress tolerant varieties / tillage practices / nutrient management
Awareness generation among communities
Extension activities
Strengthening community based initiatives
Indigenous knowledge on drought proofing
Training and capacity building of line departments
Strengthening of administrative, legal frameworks
Develop drought information and knowledge management using ICT
Integrated management & development of new water resources
Crop / Livestock insurance
Mainstreaming Drought risk management in development planning

29. Crop Insurance
National Agricultural Insurance Scheme through the Agricultural Insurance Company of India (AIC)
Private Insurance companies promoting weather insurance: linked to deficient and variant rainfall
Insurance schemes for protecting farmers’ income in these states
Agricultural insurance not very successful: high rates of premium, low productivity base, and lag in claims settlement

30. Agri-insurance (need to design better scheme)
Premium based on risk profile of the region and crops
Objective, independent assessment of loss using systems research tools such as GIS, remote sensing and models
Quick settlement of claims: reconstructing past using models

31. DROUGHT MITIGATION SCHEMES
Drought Prone Area Programme (DPAP),
Desert Development Programme (DDP),
National Watershed Development Project for Rainfed Areas (NWDPRA),
Watershed Development Programme for Shifting Cultivation (WDPSC),
Integrated Water Development Project (IWDP),
Integrated Afforestation and Eco-development Project Scheme (IAEPS).

32. Drought Management: Good Practices
In place contingency action plan
Monitoring of Rainfall and likely drought scenario from the beginning
Timely declaration of drought and initiation of drought relief measures
Effective coordination between Centre and States-Central Teams
Special care of vulnerable sections like children, pregnant and lactating mothers, old and infirm
Opening of cattle camps and subsidized fodder
Community participation in Relief and mitigation
Association of NGOs and UN Agencies
Use of Information Technology- web sites for communication

33. PREVENTIVE DISASTER MANAGEMENT
A. Hazard – Vulnerability Disaster Relief
B. Hazard - Mitigation Disaster Relief
A: Business as Usual;
B; Preferred Approach

34. Thank you