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Energy Security in the Asia-Pacific

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Presentation on theme: "Energy Security in the Asia-Pacific"— Presentation transcript:

1 Energy Security in the Asia-Pacific
Dr. Bill Wieninger

2 What we will discuss Conception of Energy System
Energy in the Pacific and the Rebalance Your Role in Energy Security Summary

3 Energy Security - Overview
Energy is the bedrock of modern society There is ONE Global energy SYSTEM It is a COMPLEX system Non-linear Feedback loops No root causes Many externalities not accounted for Holistic Awareness Essential

4 1 tonne oil = ~7.33 barrels Source: Economist 2011
Source: Economist 2011

5 US Energy Usage 1982 73.1 Quads 73.1 Quads

6 1 Quad = One trillion cubic feet Nat Gas 50 Million tons of coal
180 mb Oil

7 Negawatts? Similar EIA Quad chart at

8 The Rebalance

9 The Rebalance – Jan 2013

10 Changing Production/Consumption
34% increase in energy demand in Asia – highest of all regions in globe 34% increase in Asia

11 Energy Sources 2011, p.266-7

12 Short-term workable alternatives to Fossil Fuels
Wind Solar Nuclear 2011, p.266-7

13 Wind / Solar Improved Capture Technology but… Not On-Demand Power
Storage highly problematic

14 Nuclear Image from EIA of Construction site for Vogtle 3 and 4 – license approved for construction and operating by NRC 9 feb 2012 (image on right) Image on Left from Westinghouse of AP 1000 under construction in Haiyang China – one of 4 under construction there

15 Fukushima March 11, 2011 Japanese govt reported in Sept 2011 that the accident had contaminated 4970 sq mi with 30,000 bequerels/meter2 (an area with a radius of 40 miles). By comparison, NTI reported that Chernobyl contaminated 90,100 sq mi with 37,000 Bq/meter2.

16 Radiation Release: Diachi and Chernobyl
Response Germany Vs China

17 Power Reactors in Asia Operating Under Construction China, PRC 13 1.8%
23 India 19 2% 4 Pakistan 2 2.7% 1 Japan 54 29.2% Republic of Korea 21 34.8% 5 Russia 32 17.8% 11 Taiwan 6 17% United States 104 20.1% Data from IAEA Nucleus – Except on Taiwan (no data in IAEA for some reason) which is from : 49 49/60 reactors under construction worldwide are in Asia

18 Fossil Fuels Coal Natural Gas Oil

19 Coal – IEA 2012 IEA World Outlook

20 Changing Production/Consumption
Source: Global Coal Consumption Global Coal Production

21 Natural Gas – IEA 2012 bcm = billion cubic meters
1 bcm = ~6.29 million barrels of oil IEA World Outlook

22 Natural Gas Global Supply has remained constant at 60 years reserves since 1980 Prior to Fracking revolution

23 International Energy Agency Brief 2013
-- Feb 2013 International Energy Agency Brief 2013

24 Oil – From IEA 2012 1 Mt = 7.33 Barrels of oil
Mt = Metric Ton – roughly equivalent to 7.33 barrels of oil IEA World Outlook

25 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40187.pdf p.7
In 1956 Hubbard Predicted peak US oil in

26 Proven Oil Reserves Saud Arabia 262B Venezuela 211B Canada 175B
Iran 137B Iraq B Kuwait 104B UAE 98B Russia 60B Libya 46B Nigeria 37B US is #13 with 21B Unconventional Resources ?? E.G. GAO estimates up to 1.5T barrels of oil shale in CO/UT/WY – viable at $70-95/barrel in 2005 dollars 2011 Data from CIA: Data on Unconventional from:

27 World’s Biggest Oil Companies - 2012
Saudi Aramco – 12.5m bpd = $365B revenue / year Gazprom – 9.7m bpd = $40B profits / year National Iranian Oil – 6.4m bpd Exxon-Mobile – 5.3m bpd = $400B sales and $40B profit Petro-China – 4.4 m bpd BP – 4.1m bpd Royal Dutch Shell – 3.9m bpd PEMEX 3.6m bpd Chevron – 3.5m bpd Kuwait Petroleum – 3.2m bpd Source on company size – Forbes Jul 2012 Source on $8T investment – Yergin’s The Quest (2011), p.228 Experts predict $8T in investment in oil sector alone through 2035

28 S China Sea USGS estimate of 5-22 bb oil 70 - 290 tcf gas
Under-explored areas may contain… USGS estimate of 5-22 bb oil tcf gas CNOOC estimate of 125 bb oil 500 tcf gas Source; Energy Information Agency Report Feb

29 South China Sea and SLOC
14 mbpd of oil transit 1/3 global oil movement 1/2 global LNG

30 Collective Security in Energy
International Energy Agency 2011, p.266-7

31 International Energy Agency
Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Japan Luxembourg Netherlands New Zealand Norway Poland Portugal Republic of Korea Slovak Republic Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United Kingdom United States 28 Consumer States Agree to hold 90 day supply Agree to work to reduce consumption Require oil company reporting on info

32 Externalities -- Unpaid Costs
SO2, NO2, Mercury, etc Beijing August 2005 – photo on right an average sunny day – photo on left after 2 days of rain

33 Your Part in Energy Security
Beat the average fuel economy in the US…

34 Your Part in Energy Security
Beat the average fuel economy in the US (22.6 mpg) by 5 27.6 mpg Ford Focus Honda Accord Chevy Cruze

35 Conclusions ONE, complex, energy system
No Perfect Security, no Silver Bullets Strong support for alternative forms of energy in short term -- Uncertain support in long term “Safety and certainty in oil lie in variety, variety, and variety alone” Winston Churchill July, 1913

36 Questions?

37

38 “The most recent International Energy Agency computation credits the United States with 163 days of emergency reserves, based on both the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and privately held stocks.” 2010 DOE Strat Petro Res Annual Report

39 Note: The NAAS found that human health/mortality costs from coal power plants cost on ave 3.2c / KWh in 2007 dollars For nat gas it is .16c /KWh MIT 2003 Study on Nuclear Power [2009 Update], p.6

40 Source – CRS Report R41543 – Dec 22, 2010 – p.8


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