1. Energy Security in the Asia-Pacific
Dr. Bill Wieninger

2. What we will discuss Conception of Energy System
Energy in the Pacific and the Rebalance
Your Role in Energy Security
Summary

3. Energy Security - Overview
Energy is the bedrock of modern society
There is ONE Global energy SYSTEM
It is a COMPLEX system
Non-linear
Feedback loops
No root causes
Many externalities not accounted for
Holistic Awareness Essential

4. 1 tonne oil = ~7.33 barrels Source: Economist 2011
Source: Economist 2011

5. US Energy Usage 1982
73.1 Quads
73.1 Quads

6. 1 Quad = One trillion cubic feet Nat Gas 50 Million tons of coal
180 mb Oil

7. Negawatts? Similar EIA Quad chart at

8. The Rebalance

9. The Rebalance
– Jan 2013

10. Changing Production/Consumption
34% increase in energy demand in Asia – highest of all regions in globe
34% increase in Asia

11. Energy Sources
2011, p.266-7

12. Short-term workable alternatives to Fossil Fuels
Wind
Solar
Nuclear
2011, p.266-7

13. Wind / Solar Improved Capture Technology but… Not On-Demand Power
Storage highly problematic

14. Nuclear
Image from EIA of Construction site for Vogtle 3 and 4 – license approved for construction and operating by NRC 9 feb 2012 (image on right)
Image on Left from Westinghouse of AP 1000 under construction in Haiyang China – one of 4 under construction there

15. Fukushima March 11, 2011
Japanese govt reported in Sept 2011 that the accident had contaminated 4970 sq mi with 30,000 bequerels/meter2 (an area with a radius of 40 miles). By comparison, NTI reported that Chernobyl contaminated 90,100 sq mi with 37,000 Bq/meter2.

16. Radiation Release: Diachi and Chernobyl
Response Germany Vs China

17. Power Reactors in Asia Operating Under Construction China, PRC 13 1.8%23
India 19 2% 4
Pakistan 2
2.7% 1
Japan 54
29.2%
Republic of Korea 21
34.8% 5
Russia 32
17.8% 11
Taiwan 6
17%
United States
104
20.1%
Data from IAEA Nucleus –
Except on Taiwan (no data in IAEA for some reason) which is from : 49
49/60 reactors under construction worldwide are in Asia

18. Fossil Fuels
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil

19. Coal – IEA 2012
IEA World Outlook

20. Changing Production/Consumption
Source:
Global Coal Consumption
Global Coal Production

21. Natural Gas – IEA 2012 bcm = billion cubic meters
1 bcm = ~6.29 million barrels of oil
IEA World Outlook

22. Natural Gas
Global Supply has remained constant at 60 years reserves since 1980 Prior to Fracking revolution

23. International Energy Agency Brief 2013
-- Feb 2013
International Energy Agency Brief 2013

24. Oil – From IEA 2012 1 Mt = 7.33 Barrels of oil
Mt = Metric Ton – roughly equivalent to 7.33 barrels of oil
IEA World Outlook

25. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40187.pdf p.7
In 1956 Hubbard Predicted peak US oil in

26. Proven Oil Reserves Saud Arabia 262B Venezuela 211B Canada 175B
Iran 137B
Iraq B
Kuwait 104B
UAE 98B
Russia 60B
Libya 46B
Nigeria 37B
US is #13 with 21B
Unconventional Resources ??
E.G. GAO estimates up to 1.5T barrels of oil shale in CO/UT/WY – viable at $70-95/barrel in 2005 dollars
2011 Data from CIA:
Data on Unconventional from:

27. World’s Biggest Oil Companies - 2012
Saudi Aramco – 12.5m bpd = $365B revenue / year
Gazprom – 9.7m bpd = $40B profits / year
National Iranian Oil – 6.4m bpd
Exxon-Mobile – 5.3m bpd = $400B sales and $40B profit
Petro-China – 4.4 m bpd
BP – 4.1m bpd
Royal Dutch Shell – 3.9m bpd
PEMEX 3.6m bpd
Chevron – 3.5m bpd
Kuwait Petroleum – 3.2m bpd
Source on company size – Forbes Jul 2012
Source on $8T investment – Yergin’s The Quest (2011), p.228
Experts predict $8T in investment in oil sector alone through 2035

28. S China Sea USGS estimate of 5-22 bb oil 70 - 290 tcf gas
Under-explored areas may contain…
USGS estimate of
5-22 bb oil
tcf gas
CNOOC estimate of
125 bb oil
500 tcf gas
Source; Energy Information Agency Report Feb

29. South China Sea and SLOC
14 mbpd of oil transit
1/3 global oil movement
1/2 global LNG

30. Collective Security in Energy
International Energy Agency
2011, p.266-7

31. International Energy Agency
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Republic of Korea
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
United States
28 Consumer States
Agree to hold 90 day supply
Agree to work to reduce consumption
Require oil company reporting on info

32. Externalities -- Unpaid Costs
SO2, NO2, Mercury, etc
Beijing August 2005 – photo on right an average sunny day – photo on left after 2 days of rain

33. Your Part in Energy Security
Beat the average fuel economy in the US…

34. Your Part in Energy Security
Beat the average fuel economy in the US (22.6 mpg) by 5
27.6 mpg
Ford Focus Honda Accord Chevy Cruze

35. Conclusions ONE, complex, energy system
No Perfect Security, no Silver Bullets
Strong support for alternative forms of energy in short term -- Uncertain support in long term
“Safety and certainty in oil lie in variety, variety, and variety alone”
Winston Churchill July, 1913

36. Questions?

38. “The most recent International Energy Agency computation credits the United States with 163 days of emergency reserves, based on both the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and privately held stocks.”
2010 DOE Strat Petro Res Annual Report

39. Note:
The NAAS found that human health/mortality costs from coal power plants cost on ave
3.2c / KWh in 2007 dollars
For nat gas it is .16c /KWh
MIT 2003 Study on Nuclear Power [2009 Update], p.6

40. Source – CRS Report R41543 – Dec 22, 2010 – p.8