1. ENERGY TRANSITIONS
Vaclav Smil
2017

3. Shares of fossil fuels (%) in global primary energy consumption
(UN conversions, all non-thermal electricity 1 kWh=3.6 MJ; calculated from UN and BP data)
Year Fossil fuels Hydro Nuclear Wind and solar Modern biofuels
- 0.6
- 0.8
- 2.4
- 3.3
- 1.5
+ 0.2

4. Global shares of electricity generation (%; calculated from UN and BP data)
Year Fossil fuels Hydro Nuclear Wind Solar

10. LNG trajectory from scientific breakthrough to large-scale commercialization
Joule
Thompson
Scientific
breakthrough in
liquifaction of
gases
Linde
Air
patent
Cabot
First
LNG
shipping
43 years
trial
delivery
44 years
Methane Princess
Methane Progress
commercial
deliveries
Competitive LNG trade
Very large LNG tankers
LNG accounts for
about 10% of all
natural gas trade
46 years
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050

11. Thomas Edison with his favorite car in 1905

12. Market share (%) of electric cars in 2015
France
China
Germany 0.70
USA
Canada 0.33
Nissan Leaf

13. Tesla
The first tested Tesla car was so good it broke CR’s ratings system, but Tesla ranked 25th out of 29 auto brands in 2016 Annual Auto Reliability Survey.
Consumer Reports October 2016
For the Tesla Model X, the score dropped to 56 from 58, moving it to near the bottom of the luxury midsized SUV category.
Consumer Reports April 2017
Another cult phenomenon (not that bad as terraforming Mars by 2025 or super-cheap hyperloop by 2017) temporarily sustained by massive financial losses

14. Years to reach supply milestones after reaching 5% of the total energy supply

15. ELECTRICITY
Capacity factors (%) wind solar US EU China Japan nuclear > 90 coal > 50 >60 natural gas (CCGT) > 50
Wind and PV are easy up to a point
and always depending on specific circumstances

16. Wind and PV constraints
High shares easy
High shares difficult
Arizona PV
(Phoenix 4,041 sunny hours, 296 sunny days)
Denmark wind
(interconnections)
Japan PV
(Tokyo 1,881 sunny hours,197 sunny days, monsoon, typhoons)
US wind and PV
(no national grid)

20. Tres Amigas: late, much smaller, delayed . . .
Tres Amigas LLC is downsizing plans for an electric superstation centered in New Mexico The refined strategy includes a link between the nation's Eastern and Western grids using a capacity of around 200 MW (original plans were to move eventually up to 20 GW!!!). Tres Amigas also may pursue a tie to Texas' main power grid, but it's not a priority right now. Although the company three years ago announced a 2016 completion date, it now expects the finished project to emerge in another three to five years.
Tres Amigas website 2017

22. REAL COSTS OF INTERMITTENT GENERATION
US average construction costs
$/kWi
PV 2,921
wind 1,661
biomass 1,531
natural gas
storage
The cost of system back-up is NOT included in these levelized costs; with more PV and wind renewable shadow costs escalate because a full-sized system of on-demand power or oversized seasonal storage (does not exist now) are needed to cover multiple days and weeks of limited or no flows

23. Storage for all-renewable systems
By 2021 the largest announced storage system (more than 18,000 Li-ion batteries) will be in Long Beach for Southern California Edison: it will be capable of running at 100 MW for 4 hours. But 400MWh is still three orders of magnitude lower than what a large Asian city would need in just one day if deprived of its intermittent supply
Tokyo at 25 GW for just one day under typhoon = 600 GWh
600 GWh/400 MWh = 1,500

24. Cost of Germany’s Energiewende: Doubling the generating capacity
Fossil-fuelled capacity actually slightly up
Renewable capacity matching it

26. Fuel and non-fuel uses: difficult decarbonization
World 20% of all fuels converted to electricity 26% of final use for transportation 34% households, services 9% non-energy uses
USA 39% of all fuels converted to electricity 39% of final use for transportation 28% households, services 6% non-energy uses

29. VERY LONG WAY TO GO . . .
But builders and operators are starting to turn to electric and hybrid ships as an alternative. Norwegian cruise line Hurtigruten is investing in ships with a hybrid engine developed by Rolls Royce that aim to offer quieter sailing through tour routes in the Arctic and Antarctic. The first will be available in 2018 and will be equipped with an auxiliary battery-powered engine that could allow for near- silent sailing for up to 30 minutes. July

30. BIOJET FUEL DELUSIONS
With an average yield of 0.4 metric ton of biojet per hectare of soybeans, the United States would need to put 125 million hectares—an area bigger than Texas and California and Pennsylvania combined—under the plow to supply its own jet fuel needs. That’s nearly four times the 34 million hectares that the country devoted to soybeans in Even the highest-yielding option, oil palm, which averages 4 metric tons of biojet per hectare, would still require more than 60 million hectares of tropical forest to supply the world’s aviation fuel.

32. Technical fixes are not enough: global flying
fuel consumption/p-km
65%↓
passenger-kilometers
20x ↑

33. used in the production of primary iron, cement, ammonia and plastics
The greatest long-term challenge in the industrial sector will be to displace fossil carbon
used in the production of primary iron, cement, ammonia and plastics
output energy intensity embodied energy dominant energies
(Mt/y) (GJ/t) (EJ/y)
Primary steel , coal (coke), natural gas
Cement , coal, petcoke, fuel oil
Ammonia natural gas
Plastics natural gas, crude oil
Total ~ 75
Global fossil fuel consumption 510 EJ 74/510 = 15%
We have no mass-scale alternatives that could be deployed immediately

34. World steel production (China is the world’s largest producer, 50% of the total)

35. Haber-Bosch ammonia synthesis (China is the world’s largest producer, 33% of the total)

36. Worldwide production of plastics

37. Even the best promises are not enough to prevent further rise of atmospheric CO2
“The estimated aggregate greenhouse gas emission levels resulting from the intended nationally determined contributions do not fall within least- cost 2°C scenarios but rather lead to a projected level of 55 gigatonnes in much greater emission reduction efforts will be required than those associated with the intended nationally determined contributions in order to hold the increase in the global average temperature to below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” (UNFCCC 2015, 3)

38. Only absolute cuts in energy use would work
Given the disparities of energy consumption between affluent and modernizing nations the only possible option is to reduce energy use in rich countries (data in GJ/capita in 2015)
USA 295
Japan 150
China 90
Brazil 60
India 20
Nigeria 5
Ethiopia 2