1. Topic 2 – Population Distribution and Composition
A – Population Data
B – Population Distribution
C – Population Composition

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Citation
Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University.

3. A. Population Data
1. Use of Population Data
2. Censuses
3. The US Census

4. 1. Use of Population Data Context
Data is fundamental to demographic analysis.
Considerable effort and expense goes into the collection and organization of population data.
The focus is on the concept of population; a group of people.
The challenge is to define “group”; by geography and characteristics.

5. 1. Use of Population Data Censuses Vital registrations
Try to cover whole populations.
Expensive and time consuming.
Vital registrations
Government or church registration of births, marriages, divorces, deaths.
Most governments have legal obligations to collect data.
Most-reliable source for fertility, mortality, life expectancy and cause-of-death statistics.
Vital registration systems can be linked to information on sex, geographical region, occupation, education.

6. 1. Use of Population Data Sample surveys In 2009…
25% of the world population lived in countries where at least 90% of births and deaths are registered.
34 countries (representing 15% of the global population) had high-quality cause-of-death data.
74 countries lacked data altogether about births and deaths.
Sample surveys
Assume that a sample (1 to 5%) will be representative of the whole population.
Faster and less costly to perform.
Done by governments and corporations to gather specific purpose data (e.g. marketing).
What is population data and how can it be collected?

7. Planning, policy development, and projections
1. Use of Population Data
Planning, policy development, and projections
Governments at various levels utilize population data in development of their future plans and policies.
Include, birth, death and migration projections which will have an impact on future infrastructure needs.
Particularly important at the local governmental levels.
Age structure is of great interest:
Different needs and demands placed by youth cohorts and aged cohorts on facilities.
Governments and the private sector can plan ahead to attempt to meet future demands.
Youth need schools and recreational facilities.
Children under five years of age need day care.
The aged require medical care facilities other than hospitals, special housing, transportation, etc.

8. Monitoring current demographic trends and applied programs
1. Use of Population Data
Monitoring current demographic trends and applied programs
Entitlement programs such as social security:
Funding is essentially provided by subsequent generations.
Taxation rates must occasionally be adjusted to account for blips in the demographic structure.
Smaller age cohorts that follow have to face an increased burden to keep the system solvent.
Many organizations must monitor demographic trends to plan their budgets, staffing patterns, etc.

9. 1. Use of Population Data Scientific study Macro or micro level.
Interrelationships between demographic and socioeconomic developments.
Product design and development requires tremendous lead time.
Market changes:
Companies consider the future markets for their products before investing in the time, effort, and expense in developing new ones.
As the population ages, relative demand for various products will change.
Reflects the kinds of goods and services utilized by people at various stages of their life cycles.
What are the mean field of application of population data? Provide some examples.

10. 2. Censuses Characteristics
Data cover the entire population (or nearly so), providing accurate denominator counts for population subgroups.
It should be of the population of a strictly defined territory.
It should include everyone.
It should be a personal enumeration.
It should be conducted at one time, preferably on one day.
It should be conducted at regular intervals.

11. 2. Censuses Early censuses
1st known censuses taken circa 3800 BCE by the Babylonians.
Egyptians were also taking censuses more than 3000 years ago.
Tabulation of the Hebrew population during the flight from Egypt.
1st likely accurate census: Han china in 2 CE (Counted nearly 60 million people).
Romans took regular censuses of people and property.
1086 CE Domesday book:
Detailed account of people and holdings.
Followed Norman conquest of England.
Not until late 19th century that England would replicate such a complex survey.

12. 2. Censuses Modern censuses
The thoroughness of the count is particularly problematic.
Many people are simply missed.
Others may be counted while not present.
Much depends on the personal interpretations of the persons filling out the individual household forms.
United States:
First census in 1790.
Done every 10 years.
Last full census: 2010.
Next census: 2020.

13. 2. Censuses Every 10 Years Every 5 Years Irregularly Sampling
Brazil, Bangladesh (Since 1990), China (Since 1990), India, Indonesia (Since 1980), Italy, Kenya, Mexico, Romania, Sri Lanka, Turkey, UK.
Every 5 Years
Australia, Canada, Japan, Philippines.
Irregularly
Guatemala, Israel, Nigeria, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa.
Sampling
Germany, Israel

14. Consequences of undercounts
2. Censuses
Undercounts
Percentage of people who are missed in the count.
A small percentage - usually less than 5%.
When applied to such a large population base its importance becomes magnified.
Consequences of undercounts
Reduced representation in political bodies in which representation is based upon population.
US congress and state legislatures.
Less political power for certain regions or states.
Many budget allocations are based on population size.
If a city or area is severely undercounted, it directly feels the impact of reduced funding from government sources.

15. Illegal (Undocumented) aliens are usually seriously undercounted
2. Censuses
Illegal (Undocumented) aliens are usually seriously undercounted
Many have a great fear of any government activity.
Often stemming from their country of origin.
Fear deportation if they complete the census forms.
Difficult for the USA to gain an accurate sense of the extent of its problem with illegal aliens.
Difficult for the legal Hispanic population to gain greater political influence in this country
Regions where many of them reside have many uncounted aliens.
Deflating population totals and reducing political representation.
Explain what are censuses and the challenges related to data collection and their impact on national politics.

16. 3. The US Census
Origins
The United States has the longest history of continuous census enumeration.
The framers of the Constitution mandated a decennial census to:
Ensure that population size―not political influence or economic wealth―determined how many representatives each state had in the lower house of Congress.
Ensure that federal taxes would be levied upon states in proportion to their population size.

17. Statistical Geography:
3. The US Census
Political Geography
States, Counties, Cities, American Indian Reservations, Minor Civil Divisions, etc…
These boundaries may change between censuses.
Statistical Geography:
Census Tracts, Census Blocks, Voter Districts, Traffic Analysis Zones, etc…
Designed to display Census data for research and analysis in the public and private sector and most do not change between censuses.

18. Hierarchy of Census Geographic Entities
Source: US Census Bureau

19. 3. The US Census Blocks Block Groups
Smallest units for 100% data tabulation.
Cover entire nation.
Nest within all other types of geographic areas.
Generally bounded by visible features or boundaries.
Block Groups
Smallest units for tabulation of sample data.
Population ranges from 600 to 3,000.
Nest within census tracts.

20. White House
Census Block 1031

21. 3. The US Census 2010 Census Redistricting Data (Public Law 94-171)
Block 1031, Block Group 1, Census Tract 62.02
Total: 5
Population of one race:
White alone
Black or African American alone
American Indian and Alaska Native alone
Asian alone
Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone
Some Other Race alone

22. 3. The US Census Census tracts
Small, relatively permanent statistical subdivisions of a county.
About 65,000 census tracts Census 2000; a little over 74,000 for Census 2010.
Used for the spatial analysis of population.
Uniquely numbered in each county with a numeric code.
Census tracts average about 4,000 inhabitants:
Minimum Population – 1,200.
Maximum Population – 8,000.
Census tracts are small, relatively permanent statistical subdivisions of a county. Census tracts nest within the county and are given a numeric code that is unique within the county. The minimum population for a census tract is 1,200 and the maximum is 8,000. Most census tracts average about 4,000 people.
Source: US Census Bureau

23. Census Tracts of Alabama
This figure displays an example of what census tracts look like. The black outline represent the county boundaries in Alabama. The different colored polygons represent the census tracts. The census tracts shown above are from 2000.

24. Permanence of census tracks
3. The US Census
Permanence of census tracks
Census tracts are designed to be relatively permanent over time.
Any changes are documented so data can be compared from decade to decade.
Census tracts with more than 8,000 people are split into 2 or more tracts and are given an extension to their existing numeric code.
Census tracts with less than 1,200 people are merged with a neighboring tract and are given a new numeric code.
Small boundary corrections are sometimes allowed as well (to match with a feature such as a road or river).
Census tracts are designed to be relatively permanent over time, so that data can be compared from decade to decade. Therefore, changes to census tracts are documented and the outline of the original tract is usually maintained.
In areas where population has increased, if the census tract now has more than 8,000 people, the census tract is split into two or more tracts so that the population requirements are met.
In areas where population has decreased, if the census tract now has less than 1,200 people, the census tract is merged with a neighboring tract so that the population requirements are met.
In other areas, small revisions to the census tract boundary are allowed, but the boundary change cannot affect a large amount of the population in the tracts affected. Sometimes small boundary changes have occurred so that the census tract boundary can follow a visible feature such as a road or river.

25. South Jordan City, Utah – 1970 Census Tracts
The next few slides show an example of an area where population continues to grow and therefore the census tract is split over the decades.
This is the original tract 1130 in South Jordan City, Utah during the 1970 Census

26. South Jordan City, Utah – 1980 Census Tracts
For the 1980 Census, enough growth occurred to split the original tract 1130 into two new pieces. Note the tract suffixes .01 and .02.

27. South Jordan City, Utah – 1990 Census Tracts
For the 1990 Census, growth has again continued at an accelerated pace requiring the two tracts from 1980 to be split further. Notice the original suffixes are no longer used and new ones are provided.

28. South Jordan City, Utah – 2000 Census Tracts
Finally in the 2000 Census, the four tracts from 1990 had to be further sub-divided. Once again, the tract suffixes from 1990 are no longer used and new ones are given. You can see that the original outline of tract 1130 still exists, so you can compare the data from 2000 to the same geographic area in 1970.

29. THE 2010 U.S. CENSUS

30. The 2010 census questionnaire
3. The US Census
The 2010 census questionnaire
Name, gender and age.
Whether or not person is of Hispanic origin:
Specific Hispanic national origin.
Race:
Specific Native American, Asian or Pacific origin (but not white or black ethnic or national origin).
1976 prohibition against any mandatory question concerning a person’s “religious beliefs or to membership in a religious body”.
Whether or not the person lives there all the time or sometimes lives somewhere else.
The head of household was also asked:
The number of people living in the household.
Whether it was a house, apartment, or mobile home.
For a telephone number for follow-up contact.

31. 3. The US Census The US Census Bureau
Operates continuously, not just during census years.
Conducting an economic census every five years compiling employment data.
Surveying governments at sub-national levels.
Provide economic indicators (inventories, construction, vacancies) used be governments and businesses.
Conducting intercensal demographic estimates to provide more accurate data.

32. American Community Survey
3. The US Census
American Community Survey
A large, continuous survey.
Produces characteristics of population and housing.
Produces estimates for small areas and small population groups.
Samples approximately 3.54 million resident addresses per year (about 290,000 per month).
The census counts the population to support apportionment and redistricting.
The ACS supplements this information with annually updated estimates on the nation’s population and housing characteristics.
The purpose of the ACS is not to count every person in a community or town but to provide a portrait of the community’s characteristics.
In the wake of the 2010 Census, we want to emphasize that estimates produced by the American Community Survey are not the same as the 2010 Census population counts.
Again, the purpose of the decennial census is counting the population to support apportionment and redistricting. Use numbers from the 2010 Census to obtain counts of the population and their basic characteristics, such as sex, age, race, Hispanic origin, and homeowner status.
The American Community Survey shows how people live by providing a portrait of the community’s characteristics. Use estimates from the ACS to obtain detailed demographic, social, economic, and housing characteristics. You will learn more about these characteristics in upcoming slides.

33. 3. The US Census Results of 2010 US census
Counted million people, an increase of 9.7%, slowest rate since the 1930s (declining fertility).
Uneven growth: 84.4% of the increase occurred in the west and south.
Among states, Nevada had the highest rate of growth (35.1%), while Michigan actually lost people (-0.6%).
At the county level, coastal counties along all three coasts grew the fastest.
Many Great Plains counties lost population.

34. 3. The US Census 2010: minorities were 36.6% of total US Population.
Hispanics replaced African Americans as the nation’s largest minority group with 16% of the total US Population.
African-Americans are 14% of the US Population
Asians are the fastest growing minority group in the US.
5.7% of the population defining themselves as fully Asian or mixed-race part-Asian.
Native Americans comprise 1.7% of the total.

35. B. Population Distribution
1. Population Density
2. Population Distribution

36. 1. Population Density Arithmetic density Physiological density
Population size (P) to the area which contains it (A).
Number of people per square mile or square kilometer.
Without regard to the productive quality of the area.
Physiological density
Number of people per unit of productive land.
Productive is generally equated with arable land (AL).
Important figure to measure sustainability.
1/3 of the world’s land is arable.
AD = P / A
Arable land
PD = P / AL
Explain the differences between arithmetic and physiological density and provide some examples

37. Density Measures for Selected Countries, 2005 (in people per square km)
Source: Fellman, Getis, & Getis 1999.

38. 2. Population Distribution
Definition
Considers the distribution of population densities over the earth’s surface.
Very uneven distribution.
Two main types of distribution:
Relatively uniform: Related to agriculture.
Clustered: Related to urban areas and resources.

39. 2. Population Distribution
Current world population: 7.4 billion
Occupying less than 30% of Earth’s surface.
Three major world population clusters = 4 billion people.
Urbanization varies among the world’s regions.
A: South Asia
Centered on India, including Pakistan and Bangladesh.
World’s largest cluster made up mostly of farmers.
B: East Asia
Centered on China, including coastal zone.
Rapid change from rural-to-urban life and development.
C: Europe
European continent, including Western Russia.
Among the world’s most urbanized and industrialized realms.

40. World Population Density and Distribution, 2005C A B
Typical concentrations along major river systems.
Areas of large concentrations: South Asia, East Asia, Western Europe, Northeastern North America.
“Empty” areas are attributed to: harsh physical landscapes and harsh temperature.

41. United States Population Density by County, 2010
Discussion / teaching points: Along with slide 14, what accounts for the distribution of the US population and its density? Can students determine (or find) the density of their census tracts / town / city or other division?

42. 2. Population Distribution
High density does not necessarily imply poverty
Bangladesh, Singapore and the Netherlands have similar densities.
Some low density countries are poor.
Variations in the distribution of the population within a country (e.g. Egypt, China, USA).
Factors impacting population density
Physical environment among the most important.
Most of the population lives along the coast and river valleys.
Avoiding the deterministic trap since technology has expanded options (air conditioning, irrigation).
Impact of demographic components (fertility and migration).

43. 2. Population Distribution
High Density
Low Density
Relief (shape and height of land)
Flat low land (Ganges Valley in India)
Mountainous high land (Himalayas)
Resources
Resource rich areas (e.g. coal, oil, wood, fishing etc.) tend to densely populated (Western Europe)
Areas with few resources tend to be sparsely populated (The Sahel)
Climate
Areas with temperate climates tend to be densely populated (rain and temperature) (Belgium)
Areas with extreme climates of hot and cold tend to be sparsely populated (Sahara Desert)
Political
No particular link between political stability and density.
Politically unstable countries tend to lose populations.
Social
Groups of people want to live close to each other for security e.g. USA
Other groups of people prefer to be isolated e.g. Scandinavians
Economic
Job opportunities encourage high population densities, particularly in large cities
Limited job opportunities cause some areas to be sparsely populated

44. Population Distribution by Latitude
To what factors may be attributable the distribution of the global population?

45. Mean Center of Population for the United States, 1790 – 2010
Discussion / teaching points: Will the mean center continue to move west and south? Why? Instructors and students might also be interested in the different renditions of the mean center as presented by:
David Plane and Peter Rogerson “On Tracking and Disaggregating Center Points of Population.” Annals of the AAG. 105(5), 968–986.

46. C. Population Composition
1. Population Pyramids
2. Dependency Ratio
3. Sex Structure

47. 1. Population Pyramids Population Pyramid
Graph showing the breakdown of each sex by age group (cohort).
Illustrates a nation’s population structure.
Shows the male/female composition of the population.
Most of the time, the breakdown involves 5 years periods. 10
Percentage of the population
Age group
75+
60-75
Males
Females
45-60
30-45
15-30
0-15

48. 1. Population Pyramids Progressive Intermediate Regressive
High birth rates
High death rates
Declining birth rates
Low death rates
Low birth rates
Low death rates
Explain why the population structure varies between countries.

49. Progressive: Population Pyramid of Mexico, 2015
Mexican pyramid
Much wider base than the others.
Beginning of transition (declining base).
Rapidly growing population where the percentage of people under 15 years of age is high.
Source: US Census Bureau, International Database

50. Intermediate: Population Pyramid of United States, 2015
USA pyramid
Intermediate situation:
Aging population.
Large amounts of recent immigration.
The baby boom generation.
Low birth rates during the 1970s and early 1980s.
Limited immigration.
Preponderance of women at the top of the pyramid, an indication of their longer average life span.
Source: US Census Bureau, International Database

51. Regressive: Population Pyramid of Sweden, 2015
Sweden’s pyramid
Does not appear to be a pyramid at all.
Youngest component is smaller than its middle-aged population and only slightly larger than its aged population.
No-growth situation, since some deaths occur from all age groupings.
Sweden has a higher death rate than Mexico.
Source: US Census Bureau, International Database

52. Population Pyramid, Germany 1950
German pyramid
Shows the most extreme example of population decline.
Vast difference between males and females in the upper age groups.
Vast number of military casualties among the population which fought the WWII.
Significant impacts in the post WWII labor market.

53. 2. Dependency Ratio Definition
Comparison between the productive and non-productive population.
Non-productive population:
Refers to the very old (usually >65 years of age) and the very young (usually <15).
Considered to be the “non-productive” segments of society because they are not part of the labor force.
There is a young and an old dependency ratio.
Productive population:
Between 15 and 65.
This portion of the population constitutes the labor force.
Revised to consider lower than 20 years in developed countries (increasing time spent for education).
Ratio: [(<15) + (>65) / (15-65)] * 100

54. 2. Dependency Ratio Implications
Society incurs costs in supporting its dependent population.
Old age generates social costs:
Retirement benefits.
Increased medical expenditures.
Greater consumption of other social services.
Youths:
Some medical costs.
Great expenditures for education.
National budgets often reflect these expenditures.
Linked with the population pyramid:
Pyramidal distributions have high dependency ratios.
Progressive and regressive distributions have high dependency ratios.
Transitional pyramids have low dependency ratios.

55. Dependency Ratio, World, 1950-2050
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

56. Dependency Ratios in G-7 Countries, 2000-2050
Old-age dependency ratio is equal to (persons aged 65+)/(persons aged 20-64). Source: Casey et al. (2003).

57. 2. Dependency Ratio Aging Impacts Population over 65 years:
2005: 477 million (7.3%).
2020: 719 million (9.4%).
2050: 1,492 million (16.2%).
Impacts
Social security costs:
USA: 12% of the population over 65; 60% of health care costs.
Demographic changes may bankrupt the system.
Not a saving but a “pay as you go” system.
Requires a large working age population to be sustainable.
Medical costs and the medical industry at large.
Public sector funds such as the federal budget.
Goods and services used by the elderly.
Local impacts (school districts).

58. Population 60+, Industrial and Developing Countries, 1950-05, With Projections to 2050
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision

59. Percentage of the Population between 15 and 65, 2015-2050
Source: US Census Bureau

60. 3. Sex Structure Definition Gender composition of a population.
Males / Females * 100.
Probability:
Approximately equal probability of male and female births.
Normally expect sex ratios to remain very close to 100.
This is often not the case.

61. 3. Sex Structure Factors Aging of population: Migration: Biological:
Life expectancy at birth is greater for females than for males:
Gap has increased steadily since 1920, when the difference was just one year.
Migration:
Males are more likely to migrated.
Particularly impacts smaller countries.
Biological:
Older woman are more likely to give births to females than males.
Social:
Sex selective abortions and infanticide.
Latitude:
More equitable around the equator (50.7).
Higher ratio at higher latitude (51.4).

62. 2. Dependency Ratio Impacts Social security costs:
Demographic changes may bankrupt the system.
Not a saving but a “pay as you go” system.
Requires a large working age population to be sustainable.
Medical costs and the medical industry at large.
Public sector funds such as the federal budget.
Goods and services used by the elderly experience increasing demand levels.
Those used by the young and/or middle aged will decline in relative importance.
Local impacts (school districts).

63. Sex Ratio (males per females), 2011
ChartsBin statistics collector team 2011, Worldwide Human Sex Ratio for Total Population, ChartsBin.com, viewed 3rd February, 2017, <
Which particular pattern do you notice in the global sex ratio? What could explain this pattern?

64. Sex Ratio in the United States, 1820-2015 (males per 100 females)
WWI
WWII
Immigration Boom
Civil War
Source: US census bureau
Life expectancy gap
Immigration Boom

65. Reported child (0-4) sex ratio in China by county, 2000
Source: Christophe Z. Guilmoto and Sébastien Oliveau, “Sex ratio imbalances among children at micro-level: China and India compared,” paper presented at Population Association of America 2007 annual meeting. Based on data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (2003).

66. Global Population Distribution and Profile
Looking at global patterns of population distribution and profiles (pyramid, dependency, sex ratio) discuss how this may impact future population changes.