1. -----------------------------
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security .
Resolved: Deployment of anti-missile systems is in South Korea’s best interest.

2. -----------------------------
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
This Lecture
Terms of the Resolution
Arguments for and against South Korean missile defense systems and THAAD
Assume you watched the last lecture – history of the conflict, current geopolitical situation, general arguments for and against missile defense

3. Public Forum Debate Korea Security
Anti-Missile Systems
Korean
PAC-2/3 (3 is US)
Korean Air and Missile Defense System (KAMD)
Korean Surface-to-Air Anti-Missile system (K-SAAM)
Cheolmae II and Cheolmae 4
South Korea has three Navy Cruisers equipped with the U.S.-designed Aegis combat system
US Terminal High Altitude Area Defense
Different: Effective Against Chinese (and maybe Russian) missiles Surveillance China
Provides marginal increases in interception coverage (US troops, US), need to compare to costs

4. Public Forum Debate Korea Security
Best Interests
Want to defend themselves (at least some type of)
Economic interests (China retaliation)
Political interests (government vs. the people)
Security interests (NK reaction, China Reaction)
Relationship interests (US-South Korean relations, Trilateral Security Cooperation)
Peace interests

5. Public Forum Debate Korea Security
Passive Voice
South Korea’s missile defense?
US missile defense?
Japan’s missile defense?

6. Public Forum Debate Korea Security
What to Do?
Make the best of it – realize flaws and go for a debatable interpretation
“Missile Defenses” includes THAAD & Korea missile defense
THAAD more debatable both sides than just Korean missile defense

7. Public Forum Debate Korea Security
Passive Voice
South Korea’s missile defense?
US missile defense?
Japan’s missile defense?

8. Benefits of THAAD (To South Korea)
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
Benefits of THAAD (To South Korea)
1. Adds another layer of intercept – terminal
Protects US troop redeployments in the south of Korea
Can move to other parts
Stops coercive diplomacy
Better detection technology
Intercept different locations
Different

9. Benefits of THAAD (To South Korea)
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
Benefits of THAAD (To South Korea)
2. Improves relations with the US, strong alliance deters the North. The cards on this are actually quite good.
Kim , Sarah. "Thaad Is Elephant in Room at U.S. Summit." Korea JoongAng Daily. N.p., 27 June Web. 27 June <
Others warn that in a worst-case scenario - that [If] Seoul’s relations with Washington sour considerably over the Thaad issue - the United States may determine that Korea is no longer strategically important in its Asia policymaking and that only a shell of the alliance would be kept. “In reality, if the United States determines that South Korea is not a strategically important ally in its Asia strategy, then it could decrease the number of U.S. troops here, or avoid discussions with Korea on important issues,” said Kim. “So while the framework of an alliance may be maintained, the actual content and substance of the alliance would be considerably weakened.” An example of this would be Washington “strengthening discussions with Japan, rather than South Korea, on important issues such as the North Korea nuclear issue,” he pointed out, or a so-called “Korea passing,” a situation diplomatic isolation of Seoul by the Trump government. Chung advised: “The Thaad issue should be resolved quickly and not be dragged out any longer: a political decision has to be reached.

10. Benefits of THAAD (To South Korea)
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
Benefits of THAAD (To South Korea)
3. Trilateral security cooperation
Kim , Sarah. "Thaad Is Elephant in Room at U.S. Summit." Korea JoongAng Daily. N.p., 27 June Web. 27 June <
“Beijing is pressuring Seoul to come up with a political decision, because we are providing it pretext to do so,” said Chung Jae-hung of Sejong Institute. Chung pointed out, “Thaad is a linchpin in the Korea-U.S. alliance, an important stage in the United States’ missile defense (MD) system. So in China’s position, Seoul withdrawing from Thaad will be a considerable strategic blow to the trilateral security cooperation between South Korea-U.S.-Japan and the MD system being pushed for by the United States.” Should Korea decide to scrap the deployment of Thaad, he pointed out, “U.S. influence in the Asia-Pacific region cannot help but decrease, and Beijing, from its viewpoint, would then be able to expand its influence in this region, enabling China to exercise its influence in this area much more assertively.”

11. Benefits of THAAD (To South Korea)
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
Benefits of THAAD (To South Korea)
4. Japan Security

12. Benefits to Indigenous
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
Benefits to Indigenous
1. Reduce reliance on THAAD (if topical)
2. Establish OpCon (operational control)

13. A2: Defensive Arguments
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
A2: Defensive Arguments
A2: China sanctions solves: Illicit market, won’t pressure the regime too much – refugees and US takeover, economic interests, Russia undermining
A2: Deterrence solves: Accidents, preemptive attacks,
A2: Denuclearization: NK will never give up (fear attack)
A2: Nuclear freeze solves: Locks in current threats, previous freezes fail
A2: Preventive War: Millions of Casualties – nuke attack, CBW attack, attacks on Seoul, WMDs left in the North after the war, stateless societies, we don’t have enough military assets for a surprise attack, humanitarian, escalates with China
A2: Quick strike: Hidden, we don’t know where they all are, other weapons
A2: Make a deal with China: Would require troop withdrawal, would require SCS concessions, would require Taiwan concessions, would embolden China aggression A2: Sunshine Policy -

14. Benefits of THAAD (To the US)
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
Benefits of THAAD (To the US)
It supports shooting down missiles that are coming into the US (+ Trump perception/freak out)
Is this in SK’s interest?
-They are an ally
-War would disrupt their economy

15. Benefits of THAAD (To the US)
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
Benefits of THAAD (To the US)
-2. We make “bank”
Each system costs an estimated $1.4 billion and is likely to add to the cost of maintaining the U.S. military presence in South Korea, an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign

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Public Forum Debate
Korea Security

17. Why THAAD is Not in S. Korea’s Interests
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
Why THAAD is Not in S. Korea’s Interests
Political opposition
Protests increase food prices
Protests undermine the allliance

18. Why THAAD is Not in S. Korea’s Interests
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
Why THAAD is Not in S. Korea’s Interests
2. It doesn’t work
There is only one THAAD battery – easily overwhelmed
b. It doesn’t’ protect population centers – it’s deployed in the South (Seoul)
c. It encourages the development of Sea Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMS)
d. Intercepts have failed
e. Unclear how it protects SK – it intercepts at KM in the air. To hit in most of Korea, NK missiles would have to fly lower than that
f. Decoys
g. Missile wobbling

19. Why THAAD is Not in S. Korea’s Interests
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
Why THAAD is Not in S. Korea’s Interests
3. It hurts the economy
China retaliates
Bans tourism
Shuts-down Lotte World in China
(b) Protests in the South raise agricultural prices
© China will strengthen investment if the South abandons THAAD

20. Why THAAD is Not in S. Korea’s Interests
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
Why THAAD is Not in S. Korea’s Interests
4. It hurts US-China relations
Strong US-China relations key to resolve Korea problem (SQ China sanctions optimal – alternative to them is war)
Poor relations increase regional instability
Poor relations undermine the global economy

21. Why THAAD is Not in S. Korea’s Interests
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
Why THAAD is Not in S. Korea’s Interests
5. Alienates Russia
US-Russia relations (NU)
Trilateral alliance

22. Why THAAD is Not in S. Korea’s Interests
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
Why THAAD is Not in S. Korea’s Interests
6. Environmental problems

23. Why THAAD is Not in S. Korea’s Interests
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
Why THAAD is Not in S. Korea’s Interests
7. Hurts indigenous missile defense

24. A2: Need to Stop Attacks on the US
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
A2: Need to Stop Attacks on the US
Deterrence solves
We don’t need immediate data
Risk is low
Isolating China increases militarization, increasing weaponization
It could increase Russia’s threat
Not relevant to the resolution
Sabotage

25. A2: Need to Stop Attacks on SK
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
A2: Need to Stop Attacks on SK
It fails – see above
It alienates China, undermining cooperation on NK
Deterrence Solves, Trump threats have stopped another nuclear tests
Sabotage
Status quo Moon/Sunshine Policy/Engagement Solves
Chinese sanctions pressure works
This really isn’t threatening – NK is blustering, trying to enhance the regime

26. Public Forum Debate Korea Security
Passive Voice
South Korea’s missile defense?
US missile defense?
Japan’s missile defense?

27. A2: Asian (China, NK) Arms Race
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
A2: Asian (China, NK) Arms Race
NU – Japan is deploying THAAD
Arms race inevitable
Why we need missile defense
NK “evil”

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Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
A2: China-US Relations
Mutual interest in stopping Korean nuclearization
Economic co-dependence
Not relevant to SK best interests

29. A2: Undermines China MAD
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
A2: Undermines China MAD
China has regional radars that can spy on the US
Can’t see all the way across China, plenty of other missiles there
China has lots of missiles

30. A2: China-Korea Relations/Economy
Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
A2: China-Korea Relations/Economy
Defense alliance with the US key to the economy
Electronics, not tourism, is key to the economy

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Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
A2: Fails
Allows military redeployment
Can move
Success rate is high
Combines with other missile defenses for best boost rate

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Public Forum Debate
Korea Security
SK “Indigenous”
Need see-based anti-air/missile