1. PAGES Asia 2k 4th Workshop in RIHN, Kyoto (19-20 March, 2015)
Welcome to Kyoto！
PAGES Asia 2k 4th Workshop
in RIHN, Kyoto
(19-20 March, 2015)

2. （The project leader in Research Institute for Humanity and Nature）
<Opening Remark> Brief introduction of our institute and our project 　 Institute Name Research Institute for “Humanity” and “Nature” Project Name Societal Adaptation to Climate Change: Integrating Palaeoclimatological Data with Historical and Archaeological Evidences
NAKATSUKA, Takeshi
（The project leader in Research Institute for Humanity and Nature）

3. (Building: Constructed in 2006)
Its Appearance : Unique
RIHN: Established in 2001
(Building: Constructed in 2006)
about 200 staffs (researchers and supporting staffs)
Hoshi
Unique appearance
Flat and wall-less office to stimulate multi-disciplinary discussions ★
Kyoto
(Old Capital of Japan)
Wide laboratories

4. Its Concept : Understanding of human-environment interacting loops
By elucidating of “human-environment interacting loops”, the essence of environmental problems, we would like to create new paradigm of “environmental thoughts”, that can ensure our futurability (not only sustainable, but also evolvable forever…)

5. Its Activity : Project system
RIHN’s objective is to conduct integrative research on key areas of interaction between humanity and nature.
RIHN solicits, develops, funds, and hosts Research Projects lasting from between three to five years. Projects
conduct high quality research; they are always multi-disciplinary and based on multiple methodologies. All
projects are subject to a rigorous course of internal and external review.

6. Future Earth Framework (RIHN has become Asia-Pacific Regional Node Office)
Societies: International, National, Local communities, Industries, Fishermen, Farmers, Foresters…
Economy,
Politics, Laws, Education…
Trans-disciplinary level
Technology, Agriculture, Medicine, fishery…
Applied Science Level
Inter-disciplinarity
History, Sociology, Philosophy, Psychology…
Physics, Chemistry, Ecology, Geology…
Geography, Anthropology
Basic Science Level
Inter-disciplinarity
Humanity
Nature

7. Humanity Nature a Research Project (2014-2018)
Societal Adaptation to Climate Change: Integrating Palaeoclimatological Data with Historical and Archaeological Evidences
(Project Leader: Takeshi NAKATSUKA)
Societies: International, National, Local communities, Industries, Fishermen, Farmers, Foresters…
Economy,
Politics, Laws, Education…
Trans-disciplinary level
Technology, Agriculture, Medicine, fishery…
Basic & Applied Science
Level Inter-disciplinarity
History, Archaeology…
Paleoclimatology,Climatology…
Basic Science Level
Inter-disciplinarity
Humanity
Nature

8. Organization of Project Members (by February 2015)
1) Historical and Archaeological Members (36)
・Prehistorical & Ancient (13)
・Medieval (8)
・Early Modern (15)
2) Climatological Members (4)
・Data Analyses (2)
・Climatic Isotope Modeling (2)
3) Paleoclimatological Members (22)
・Tree Ring (11)
・Coral Ring (3)
・Stalagmite (2)
・Ice Core (2)
・Document (2)
・Sediment (2)
Paleo-
climatologists
Historians
Archaeo-
logists
Climatologists

9. Three step approach to climate-society relationship in this project, starting from paleoclimatology
Identification of underlying factors
Reconstruction of Climate variation
Categorization of climate-society relation
Comparison with historical and archaeological evidences
How did the climate change result in the social responses?
Apparently coincident
Remarkable climate events, potentially to had affected past societies
Why could the society dodge the climate change?
Apparently, not coincident
The most important research target in this project…

10. Spatial distribution of paleoclimatological proxies
studied in 2014 around Japan
Okinawa
Tree Ring
Varve sed.
Stalagmite
Precipitation
Document
Precip・Temp.
Coral ring
SST・Salinity
Ishigaki
Taiwan

11. Temporal distribution of paleoclimatological proxies in Japan
–3000
–2000
–1000
BC/AD
1000
2000
Tree Ring (Precipitation)
Aomori
cypress
Akita cedar
Shizuoka
cypress
Nagano~Nara cypress
Fukui
cedar
Yamaguchi
cedar
Yakushima
cedar
Shimane cedar
Ehime tsuga
Okinawa pine
Taiwan cypress
Varve Sediment (Precipitation）
Fukui
Document (Temp., Precip)
Whole Japan
Coral Ring (Sea Surface Temp., Salinity)
Ishigaki
analyzed
Sample collected

12. Apparent Coincidence between Summer Temperature (Cook et al
Apparent Coincidence between Summer Temperature (Cook et al., 2013: Asia 2k) and Medieval Japan History (9th ~12th centuries)
Johei-Tengyo War
(East Japan) ★
Rebellion, War
Famine
Year (AD)
Zen-kunen War
(Northeast Japan)
Go-Sannen War
(Northeast Japan)
Genpei War
(All Japan)
Yowa Famine(Kyoto) ★
Year (AD)
10-20 years warmth often resulted in warfare and/or famine at following cold periods as well as Early Modern age. Q. What are the underlying mechanisms?

13. dynasty) War (All Japan)
Apparent Coincidence between Summer Temperature (Cook et al., 2013: Asia 2k) and Medieval Japan History (13th ~16th centuries)
Kangi Famine
(East Japan)
Seika Famine
(East Japan)
Collapse of Kamakura
Shogunate (All Japan)
Namboku-cho(Twin
dynasty) War (All Japan) ★ ★
Year (AD)
Kyotoku War
(East Japan)
Ohnin War
Kanjo Famine
(Kyoto) ★
Rebellion, War
Famine
Year (AD) ★
10-20 years warmth often resulted in warfare and/or famine at following cold periods as well as Early Modern age. Q. What are the underlying mechanisms?

14. reduction of population
A working hypothesis based on previous studies; Human society is vulnerable to multi-decadal climate change…
Population x Living standard
Environmental
Capacity
Env. Capacity
Extended
Multi-decadal
Climate Change
Env.Cap.
Pop. x L.Std.
Pop x L.Std ①
Increase of
population
and/or living
standard
during a few
decades
Compulsory
reduction of population
by famine, warfare… ② ④
Ext. Env.Cap.
Continued
Multi-decadal
Climate Change
Env. Cap.
Shrunk
Pop. x L.S. kept
Pop.x L.S. Increase ③
① Increase in Environmental Capacity due to climate change
② Over-adaptation to the increased environmental capacity
③ Decrease in Environmental Capacity due to climate Change
④ Failure of adaptation to the decreased environmental capacity

15. However, some societies may not be vulnerable to “multi-decadal” climate variations
Innovation
Massive
Fatalities
Adaptation　Collapse
Capacity
Capacity
Shrink
Population
Pop. x L.Std
Pop. x L.Std kept…
Migration
Change in
Life style
Population
Pop. x L.Std
In case that population and/or living standard do not change, even when environmental capacity increases.
Invasion
Fixed
society
Pop. x L.Std
Population
Neighbors

16. The first step (paleoclimatology) is the most important to ensure reliability of total study.
Identification of underlying factors
Reconstruction of Climate variation
Categorization of climate-society relation
Comparison with historical and archaeological evidences
How did the climate change result in the social responses?
Apparently coincident
Remarkable climate events, potentially to had affected past societies
Why could the society dodge the climate change?
Apparently, not coincident
The most important research target in this project…