1. NEXRAD Product Improvement- Update 2008 Bob Saffle: Noblis, Inc. Mike Istok: National Weather Service Greg Cate: National Weather Service AMS 24 th IIPS Conference New Orleans, Louisiana January 20-24, 2008

2. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.12 NEXRAD Objective Reduce loss of life, injuries, and property damage due to severe weather – Increase radar data accuracy and resolution – Provide Doppler wind information – Improve data distribution to users (NEXRAD Joint Operational Requirements: 1981)

3. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.13 Basic Questions What key improvements in weather radar are required to take warning services to the next plateau? What are the key areas to focus on in science and technology to support moving to the next radar plateau?

4. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.14 Tornado Warning Improvement Strategies NWS Recommendations Team Increase data density, spatially and temporally Improve data assimilation and analysis Implement storm scale models

5. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.15 Provide a continuing programmatic vehicle for NWS-led large radar projects Replace legacy, proprietary HW/SW components of the WSR-88D with supportable COTS versions – Improve reliability, enhance technical capabilities, reduce O&M costs –Provide infrastructure to support science and data distribution enhancements –ORPG and ORDA (complete) Transition approved radar R&D advances into WSR-88D operations –Dual Polarization (contract awarded, development begun) –ORPG algorithms and ORDA signal processing (on-going) Leverage other weather radar systems for NWS use –FAA, Canadian, Television Station (on-going) Conduct programmatic planning for future advances in weather radar technology –Long range surveillance Phased Array Radar (MPAR) –Short range, low power radars for boundary layer coverage (CASA-like) NEXRAD Product Improvement – NPI What Is It?

6. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.16 Data Timeliness –VCP 12: 4.1 min volume update interval vs 5-6 min –Mesocyclone & TVS updates at each elevation angle vs end of volume only Data Resolution –255 data levels for Reflectivity, Velocity, VIL, Echo Tops vs 15 levels Data Coverage –VCP 12: more lower angles for better vertical resolution at longer ranges –VCP 121: reduced range folding for better velocity data coverage Data Quality –Radar Echo Classifier to reduce AP/clutter in rainfall estimates –FAA Data Quality Assurance to reduce artifacts in VIL and Echo Tops Algorithm Science –Improved Mesocyclone detection, tornadic vortex detection, storm tracking –Snow & Liquid Water Equivalent products –User selectable Layer Reflectivity Data Distribution –High Speed connection to local WFO AWIPS systems –AWIPS WAN usage for high speed distribution of products to other WFOs –Near real time central collection and distribution of Level II data and Level III products NEXRAD Product Improvement Past Radar Science Implementations

7. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.17 Better spatial resolution for analysis of tornadic potential, especially for smaller, or more distant, storms To be deployed in Spring 2008 Increases Reflectivity data resolution to ¼ km x ½ degree from current 1 km x 1 degree Increases Velocity and Spectrum Width data resolution to ¼ km x ½ degree from current ¼ km x 1 degree Extends range of Velocity and Spectrum Width data to 300 km from current 230 km Base Products initially: reflectivity, velocity, spectrum width Potentially: SR versions of Mesocyclone, TVS, rainfall, etc. Level II data central collection and dissemination –Message Type 31 created to support Super Resolution and Dual Polarization (beginning in late 2009) Super Resolution (SR) Data

8. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.18 Status –ARSR-4: proof of concept at Guantanamo Bay & Watford City, ND –ASR-11: proof of concept at Erie, PA –TDWR: 11 sites in operational use with NWS connections; 10 sites’ data from Lincoln Laboratory connections – Deployment to all 45 TDWR sites in 2008 Complements WSR-88D data, particularly TDWR units –Backup during WSR-88D outages –1 min updates of lowest elevation angle reflectivity, 3 min for velocity –Lower altitude and better spatial resolution data when TDWR closer to a storm –Data for areas of incomplete WSR-88D coverage, e.g., beam blockage Supports scientific enhancements for TDWR units –Base reflectivity and velocity products –Derived products: Mesocyclone, TVS, VIL, Echo Tops, SCIT, Rainfall, VWP Operational Impact –Better Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado, Flash Flood warnings –Better input to high resolution NWP models for ‘warn on forecast’ NWS Use of FAA Radar Data Project

9. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.19 Deployment projected for 2009-2012 –Contract awarded September 2007 Adds vertical polarization channel to WSR-88D –Built on ORDA foundation –Simultaneous transmit/receive in horizontal and vertical polarization to maintain current volume update times –Dual Pol data for all elevation angles, to 300 km range Supports scientific enhancements –Differential Reflectivity, Correlation Coefficient, Differential Phase, Specific Differential Phase –Initial products: rainfall estimation, Hydrometeor Classification –Rainfall estimation improvements Elimination of AP, clutter, birds, hail, attenuation impacts Recovery of data from partial beam blockage areas –Hail detection, rain/snow discrimination, tornado debris cloud –Robust detection/elimination of non-meteorological data (AP, clutter, birds, interference, …) Operational Impact –Better Severe Thunderstorm, Tornado, Flash Flood warnings –Better input to high resolution NWP models for ‘warn on forecast’ Dual Polarization Project

10. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.110 Recognition of need for 20-year vision, goals and roadmap Formation of OAR-NWS Joint Radar Planning Team (JRPT) 20-year vision –Neighborhood scale warnings of high impact weather, including tornado warnings with 45 min lead time and flash flood warnings with 3 hour lead time Enabling technologies –Near term radar improvements: WSR-88D Dual Polarization, partner radars (FAA, private sector) –Longer term radar improvements: Phased Array long range S-Band surveillance radar; short wavelength, low power boundary layer radar –Advances in data assimilation science to better utilize radar data –Development of High resolution, storm-scale NWP models to forecast tornadic and other high impact weather conditions NOAA/NWS Radar Strategic Planning

11. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.111 Current NPI Science Implementations WSR-88D SZ-2 Mitigation of Range/Velocity Ambiguity First operational selection of SZ-2 VCP: KTLX Mar 30, 2007: 2037Z – 2042Z

12. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.112 Current NPI Science Implementations WSR-88D SZ-2 Mitigation of Range/Velocity Ambiguity – SZ-2 SZ-2 VCP 212 “Standard” VCP 12

13. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.113 Current NPI Science Implementations Super Resolution (1/4 km by ½ degree): Deploy Spring 2008 KCRI SR test data (bottom) vs current: rotation signature at 100 nmi

14. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.114 Current NPI Science Implementations Super Resolution (1/4 km by ½ degree): Deploy Spring 2008 KCRI SR test data (bottom) vs current: Cordell tornado signature at 73 nmi Tornado Report 11 miles SSE Cordell

15. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.115 Current NPI Science Implementations Super Resolution (1/4 km by ½ degree): Deploy Spring 2008 KCRI SR test data (left) vs current (right): Cordell small tornado at 73 nmi SR Gate-Gate VR-shear is near typical tornado warning threshold (.015 s -1 ) Current resolution: VR = 34 kts; VR-shear=0.004 s -1 Super Resolution: VR = 56 kts; VR-shear=0.013 s -1

16. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.116 Current NPI Science Implementations Super Resolution (1/4 km by ½ degree): Deploy Spring 2008 KCRI SR Reflectivity test data (left) vs current (right) Tropical Cyclone Erin remnant over Oklahoma

17. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.117 Current NPI Science Implementations Super Resolution (1/4 km by ½ degree): Deploy Spring 2008 KCRI SR Base Velocity test data (left) vs current (right) Tropical Cyclone Erin remnant over Oklahoma

18. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.118 Current NPI Science Implementations Super Resolution (1/4 km by ½ degree): Deploy Spring 2008 KCRI SR Spectrum Width test data (left) vs current (right) Tropical Cyclone Erin remnant over Oklahoma

19. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.119 Current NPI Science Implementations FAA TDWR Base Products: Deployed 2006-2007 TDWR data often valuable, sometimes critical, to tornado warning decisions.

20. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.120 Current NPI Science Implementations FAA TDWR Base Products: Deployed 2006-2007 TDWR data sometimes closer to storm, with better spatial resolution. Milwaukee TDWR Reflectivity: Kenosha Tornado Milwaukee WSR-88D Reflectivity: Kenosha Tornado

21. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.121 NPI Implementations In Development Dual Polarization: Deploy Late 2009 - 2012 KOUN DP test data: Tropical Cyclone Erin remnant over Oklahoma Differential Reflectivity (left); Correlation Coefficient (right)

22. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.122 NPI Implementations In Development Dual Polarization: Deploy Late 2009 - 2012 KOUN DP test data: Tropical Cyclone Erin remnant over Oklahoma Specific Differential Phase (left); Polarimetric Rainfall Rate (right)

23. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.123 NPI Implementations In Development Dual Polarization: Deploy Late 2009 - 2012 KOUN DP test data: Tropical Cyclone Erin remnant over Oklahoma Hydrometeor Classification: Single Scan (left); Hybrid Scan (right)

24. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.124 NPI Implementations In Development Dual Polarization: Deploy Late 2009 - 2012 KOUN DP test data: Tropical Cyclone Erin remnant over Oklahoma 14.6 degree data; Reflectivity, Zdr, CC, HC (left); derived Melting Layer (right)

25. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.125 2025 Vision Neighborhood-scale warnings of: (i) High Impact Weather events including a 45± minute tornado lead time; (ii) Hurricanes & Inundation improvements in QPF increasing flash flood lead time from 1 to 3 hours; (iii) Drought & WaterResource management four-fold improvement in QPE reducing in-rain arel bias – All enabled by the integration of surveillance radar, short-wavlength radars and other sensors sampling the boundary layer, driving regional integrated cloud- scale models and intelligent along with adaptive systems. Vision Pulls the Radar Roadmap Enabling Technologies Surveillance Radars Adaptive Data Integration Radar Partnerships Diverse, Short Wavelength Gap-Filling Radars (SWR) B1B1 B2B2 R&D Acquisition /Deploy. A4A4 MPAR WSR-88D (NPI) B4B4 A 2,3 A1A1 E 1,2,3 Targets of Opportunity D1D1 D2D2 D3D3 SWR C1C1 C2C2

26. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.126 CASA Example

27. NPI Jan 23, 2008AMS 24th Conference on IIPS: Paper 6B.127 Bob Saffle Noblis, Inc. (Supporting NWS) Robert.Saffle@noaa.gov