1. Prospects for Green Growth in Macedonia Modeling Approaches Michael Jacobsen Water Economist Skopje March 1, 2011

2. The issue Climate variability impacts growth Mainly through water, energy, transport and agriculture Modeling tools exist to assess climate exposure, impact on infrastructure, agriculture etc. These tools can assist decision making Tools exist to assist in adaptation

3. http://esmap.org/esmap/heat An application of a tool developed by the UK Climate Office

4. 4 A closer look at the assessment of climate impact and adaptation options – One possible approach

5. 5 Modeling Approach – Crop Yield and Water Resources Crop Modeling – Process-based models (e.g., AquaCrop) for up to 7 select crops – country nominates crops for focus Water Resource Availability “Screening Tool” (e.g. CliRun ) projects runoff for all key basins in country Basin-level Water Balance Modeling – (e.g WEAP) for all large basins in each country Agricultural water demand from crop model Mining and Industry water demand projections from studies Climate-induced water supply variation and change from CliRun

6. Albania: Yield Effects – No Adaptation 6

7. Albanian Crop Water Demands – Percent Increase 7

8. Kosovo Iber BainWater uses - Year 2010 Project funded by the World Bank8 Public water supply Irrigation units Use for power generation Use for Industry - Mines Mitrovista W.S Vushtri Irrigation unit Shkabaj Irrigation unit Kosova B Power Generation Kosova A Power Generation Komoran Irrigation unit Feronikeli mining Prishtina W.S. W.S of small towns and villages from ground water or springs E-flow Biological minimum

9. 9 Baseline scenario : WEAP results Gazivoda SYSTEM 1 : GAZIVODA RESERVOIR 2010 February 2011

10. Workshop on Water Security in Central Kosovo 24 –Feb 2011 10 Gazivoda 2020

11. Workshop on Water Security in Central Kosovo 24 –Feb 2011 11 Gazivoda 2035

12. Workshop on Water Security in Central Kosovo 24 –Feb 2011 12 Gazivoda – 2035

13. Identification of adaptation options – needs stakeholder consultation Source:: GEF, European Commission McKinsey et. al. Economics of Climate Adaptation

14. Risk, Impact, Adaptation options and economic consequences