1. BARACK OBAMA AND LATIN AMERICA

2. WHAT DRIVES FOREIGN POLICY? Generosity Friendship Proximity Repayment of historical debt –Or Self-centered national interest.

3. CONCEPTUAL ISSUES 1. Nature of power: “hard” vs. “soft.” 2. Sovereignty and internal vs. international domains. 3. Emphasis on war vs. peace. 4. Importance of democracy. 5. Value of international cooperation, institutions. 6. American power: extent vs. limits.

4. FOUNDATIONS FOR ALTERNATIVES U.S. loss of “soft power” Continuing frustration in Latin America Importance of Latin America to U.S. Change of U.S. administration as result of presidential election

5. WHAT WOULD IT TAKE? 1. Election of a president with personal commitment to progressive paradigm and a strong interest in Latin America. 2. Events within region that demand U.S. attention— e.g., spread of pink tide or launching of terrorist attack. 3. World developments that focus attention on Latin America—e.g., “clash of civilizations.” 4. Demographic and political changes within the United States.

6. THE OBAMA RECORD Exaggerated expectations Intervening priorities, domestic (economy) and international (Afghanistan) Hesitant beginnings, ambivalent stances Nuanced view of Latin America

7. RECENT ISSUES Honduras: commitment to democracy? Cuba: admission to OAS, Guantánamo Points of tension: –Venezuela –Bolivia –“New Left” in general War on Drugs Immigration

8. HONDURAS 2005-06 Manuel Zelaya elected 2008Joins ALBA (and Hugo Chávez) 2009: 6/28 Ousted, Roberto Micheletti takes power 7/05Honduras suspended by OAS 11/29Porfirio Lobo elected (56.6% vote) 2010: JanMZ exile in Dominican Republic; Honduras withdraws from ALBA JulyU.S. urges readmission to OAS Aug Mexico, Chile extend recognition 2011:Lobo and Zelaya reach agreement on MZ’s return

9. BRAZIL Differences over Honduras, Cuba, Chávez Ties to Iran, diplomatic initiatives UN Security Council Trade: WTO suit, agricultural protectionism (e.g. sugar, oranges, ethanol) Perceptions of power, relationship Shift from Lula to Dilma Rousseff

10. CUBA Restores Clinton emphasis on “people to people” contacts Embargo exemptions for humanitarian, religious, academic purposes More flights (chartered) Remittances of $500 per quarter Context: –Private market in Cuba, reduced role of state –Emergence of “civil society” –Republican takeover of House of Representatives –New generation of Cuban-Americans

11. And so…?