1. New Madrid Seismic Zone and it’s impacts

2. History  “Major” earthquakes in the New Madrid region occurred on Dec. 16, 1811; Jan. 23, 1812; and Feb. 7, 1812  Magnitude 7.5 - 8.0 (estimated)  Thousands of aftershocks between the events and in the following months  Earthquakes were felt throughout the eastern United States  Church bells rang in Washington D.C. and Boston  New Madrid Seismic Zone has a major event every 200-300 years

3.  Large areas of land sank into the earth…forming Reelfoot Lake  Riverbanks caved, the Mississippi River uplifted and formed waterfalls, and for a short time it flowed backwards  Fatalities and damage were low because the area was sparsely settled  Governor William Clark (of Lewis & Clark) requested the first federal emergency aid for New Madrid quake 1811-12 victims History (Cont.)

4. A catastrophic earthquake—or a series of earthquakes in the Central U.S. will pose unprecedented problems and challenges. Earthquakes occur without any warning. Damages can extend over hundreds of miles. Roads, bridges, utilities and other infrastructure can sustain heavy damages, delaying response efforts. The potential losses from future earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or greater in the New Madrid seismic zones (NMSZ) of the Central U.S. are expected to be significant. Threat

5. Threat Eight States will be affected:  Alabama  Arkansas  Illinois  Indiana  Kentucky  Mississippi  Missouri  Tennessee

6.  The high population density of many cities, mid-sized towns, and rural areas.  The large number of structures not designed and constructed to with- stand the effects of earthquakes. More than 3 million people are in the immediate area, including residents in the St. Louis and Memphis metropolitan areas. Most buildings, highways and bridges in the region were not built to withstand earthquakes. Threat (Cont.)

7. The presence of thick saturated sediments which amplify shaking and have the potential for liquefaction. When liquefaction occurs, soil loses its load bearing capacity and the ability to support foundations for buildings and bridges. The sand boils dot the landscape, surrounding New Madrid, MO from the earthquakes of 1811-12, testifying to massive liquefaction. Threat (Cont.)

8. Effects of Shaking: Liquefaction Some areas may have fields of sand blows. These features can be dated to determine when historical large events occurred.

9. The reliability of dams, locks and levee systems to protect against flooding. Threat (Cont.)

10. The major pipelines that carry liquefied gas, jet fuel, diesel, gasoline and other refined petroleum from Texas to the East Coast run through the soft alluvial soil in the NMSZ. Despite problems with the soil, construction of power plants and other industrial plants has continued Threat (Cont.)

11. The large area that would be affected by damaging ground motion and associated ground failure (about 10 times larger than the area impacted by a California earthquake of comparable size). This Figure depicts the Northridge earthquake and compares the areas damaged and felt with an 1895 magnitude 6.6 NMSZ earthquake in Charleston, Missouri. Threat (Cont.)

12. The electrical system will be adversely affected by the damage caused by the earthquake. Areas outside the impacted zone may take several months to return to service and areas affected taking years to return.

16. MAE Center Study Estimates  Tennessee, Arkansas, and Missouri are most severely impacted.  Nearly 715,000 buildings are damaged in the eight-state study region.  About 42,000 search and rescue personnel working in 1,500 teams are required to respond to the earthquakes  3,500 damaged bridges  425,000 breaks and leaks to both local and interstate pipelines.  Approximately 2.6 million households are without power after the earthquake.  Nearly 82,000 injuries and 3,500 fatalities result from damage to infrastructure.  Nearly 130 hospitals are damaged and most are located in the impacted counties near the rupture zone.  Roughly 15 major bridges are unusable.

17. Agricultural Impact Arkansas has 13% of U.S. poultry production 200+ million chickens $1.1+ Billion annually 35% of State agriculture Largest Rice producer in the US Alabama has 12% of U.S. poultry production 175+ million chickens $1+ Billion annually

18.  A catastrophic NMSZ earthquake will overextend State and local government resources.  Federal resources will be immediately activated and deployed in support of the states.  Liquefaction susceptibility is specified as ‘High’ or ‘Very High’ in most areas of the NMSZ.  Damage will be catastrophic in the areas that experience shaking intensities of 7.7 with high or very high liquefaction.  Infrastructure will be crippled if not inoperable.  Aftershocks will occur and continue for weeks/months after the main quake.  A catastrophic earthquake will create an unknown number of fatalities and casualties. Facts

19. Shelter Estimates MAE Center Data (October 2009) The “At Risk” population is defined as the combined number of households who are displaced due to structural damage to their residence and those without water and/or power for at least 72 hours. FEMA RegionState TotalTotal Population Day 1Day 3 # at risk# shelter seeking# at risk# shelter seeking Region 4 Alabama4,447,1009,6453,081601,561173,412 Kentucky4,041,76953,86014,952850,615233,909 Mississippi2,844,65861,99718,345705,032205,507 Tennessee5,689,283316,68191,1032,072,942562,468 Total R417,022,810442,183127,4814,230,1501,175,296 Region 5 Illinois12,419,29350,28515,588650,247185,139 Indiana6,080,4859,9322,701579,627153,570 Total R518,499,77860,21718,2891,229,874338,709 Region 6 Arkansas2,673,400124,73038,827937,518285,865 Total R62,673,400124,73038,827937,518285,865 Region 7 Missouri5,595,211103,66530,074842,002237,991 Total R75,595,211103,66530,074842,002237,991 Total43,791,199730,795214,6717,239,5442,037,861

20.  The estimates reflect that by day 3 the size of the “At Risk” population is expected to exceed 7 million people  With over 2 million “At Risk” people, Tennessee has the greatest mass care needs  Arkansas, with slightly less than 1 million “At Risk” people, is a distant second  Along with the aforementioned shelter-seeking population, approximately 815,000 dogs and 738,000 cats are displaced and will need shelter  This is an important consideration since many people will refuse to leave their homes without taking their pets. Shelter Estimates (Cont.) MAE Center Data (October 2009)

21. The Response  The initial Federal priority will be life safety and search and rescue Mass Care Priorities  Sheltering and Housing  Feeding  Household pets and service animals  Reunification

22. Who’s going to be there for the pets?

24. Questions?

25. “Plan for the real, not the easy” W. Craig Fugate FEMA Administrator