1. 2009-06-17IEW 2009, 17-19 June, Venice Future IPCC scenarios – lessons learned and challenges to scenario building Bastien Girod 1 and Thomas Flüeler 1,2 ETH Zurich, 1 Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), Chair of Natural and Social Science Interface; 2 Energy Science Center (ESC), SWITZERLAND

2. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch 2 Overview A. Lessons from the past IPCC emission scenarios  Improvements as well as shortcomings  Challenges to be met B. Suggestions to tackle scenario challenges  Formative scenario analysis  Actor and network analysis  Integration of consumption in functional units  Business as Past (instead of Business as Usual, BaU)

3. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch 3 Preliminary note  IPCC is at the science-policy interface  Commendable for interdisciplinary and international approach to tackle the eminent “world problem” of climate change  Scenario building passes bridge from science to policy  This contribution is an external appraisal of IPCC  recognizes IPCC’s merits  analyzes its products and process  intends to add to IPCC’s credibility, saliency, legitimacy

4. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch A. Lessons from the past IPCC emission scenarios 4

5. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch Analysis of evolution of IPCC scenarios  Document analysis  Official IPCC reports  Previous publications in literature  IPCC review (comments and final draft of SRES)  Comparison to literature  Expert interviews  SRES, IS92, SA90 authors  Publication in Journal for Environmental Science and Policy (2008) 5

6. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch Evolution of the IPCC scenarios 6 Scientific Assessment 1990 [SA90]

7. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch Evolution of the IPCC scenarios 7 SA90 (1990) IPCC Scenarios 1992 [IS92]

8. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch Evolution of the IPCC scenarios 8 SA90 (1990) IS92 (1992) Special Report on Emission Scenarios [SRES] (2000)

9. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch Comparison to storylines from literature 9 GSGSRESWBCSDGEO-3WWVOECDMA Conventional Worlds: Market ForcesA1FROG!Market firstBaUReference (Global Orchestration) Policy ReformB1 GEO policy Policy first Technology & econ. Policy variants Barbarization: BreakdownA2 Fortress WorldSecurity first (Order from Strength) Great Transitions: Eco-CommunalismB2 (Adapting Mosaic) New Sustainability Paradigm Jazz Sustainability first Lifestyle and values (Techno Garden) Source: Millennium Assessment Report (MA) Raskin et al. (2005)

10. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch Scenario titles proposed by authors and reviewers SRES AIM modeling team (Jiang et al., 2000) ASF modeling team (Sankovski et al., 2000) Jim Shrouds (USDT/USA) (on IPCC, 2000) Switzerland (on IPCC, 2000) A1 Catch up (Scenarios C) High GrowthGlobal AffluenceConvergence A2 Domestic Supply (Scenario D) RegionalizationRegional IdentitiesFragmentation B1 Shortcut a (Scenario S) SustainabilityGlobal SolutionsDematerialization B2 Regional Equity (Scenarios E) Regional Stewardship Local InitiativesLocal Solutions Department of Transportation (USDT), Asian Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), Atmospheric Stabilization Framework (ASF). a “ Shortcut” denotes an improvement of the quality of the environment the developing Asia-Pacific countries before reaching a level as bad as that in the OECD countries during their own development period. 10

11. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch Description and use of scenario axes 11 SRES scenario axes Changing value (1990-2000) IncomeGDPGHG/ GDP GHG/ capita Globalization Sustainability

12. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch Influence by governments on scenarios structure and description  Direct influence  No intervention scenarios (Terms of Reference)  Merge of the A1G and A1C to A1FI (final plenary)  Upgrade of A1FI & A1T to illustrative scenarios (final plenary)  Indirect influence  Scenario names  China, USA and Saudi Arabia most successful with their requests 12

13. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch Challenges of scenarios construction – lessons from the SRES  Salient description  Line-by-line approval of IPCC SPM required in plenary  Identical description in SPM and main report  Balanced participation  Different interest on approval (publication) of report  Inherent uncertainty of future  Credible storyline construction  Systematic approach (storylines)  Different worldviews (danger of wishful thinking) 13

14. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch 14 B. Suggestions to tackle scenario challenges

15. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch Formative scenario analysis  Method  Tool for system analysis in a transdisciplinary setting  Recognition of active and passive variables as basis  Definition of future states for each key variable  Consistency analysis of all future states  Similar to cross-impact-analysis  Improvements  Systematic building of consistent scenarios  Traceability, integrity, consistency of expert judgments (e.g. regarding the virtual elimination of coal in A1T) 15

16. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch Actor and network analysis  Methods  Description of actors, networks and their -influence on (and responsibility for) future GHG emissions -ïnfluence on IPCC -interests, values, perception of causality  Derivation of different types of conflicts  Improvements  Systematic introduction of multiple contributors  Increased legitimacy  Transparency about potential, influence and process  Optimization of mitigation scenarios towards low conflicts 16

17. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch Consideration of consumption patterns  Complement top-down with bottom-up approach  Method: (fu=functional units; P=population)  Improvements:  Description: More meaningful data on future “worlds”  Consistency: High globalization & low GHG emissions: What about mobility, especially air travel? 17

18. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch From BaU (Business as Usual) to BaP (Business as Past) 18

19. 2009-06-17 Girod & Flüeler Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch – thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch Thank you for your comments! bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch thomas.flueeler@env.ethz.ch 19