1. A Preliminary Analysis on Modeling Results Relevant to China from the International Emissions Scenarios Database Chen Ying (cycass@163bj.com) Research Centre for Sustainable Development (RCSD), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) Beijing BASIC Workshop on Feb.18, 2006

2. Outline Overview of Emissions Scenarios Database Analysis on Reference Scenarios Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios Conclusions: Gaps to be bridged

3. I. Overview of Emission Scenarios Database Structure  Sources: 256  Scenarios: 734  Regions:  Variables:  Results: 1990-2100, every 10 years 93668 records in total

4. China in the Countries Groupings China CPA= China+HK and other 5 countries ASIAP= CPA(7)+SAS(8)+PAS(19), 34 countries and regions China ASIAP CPA China is 90%- 95% of CPA, 50%-60% of ASIAP

5. Models related to China 13 models developed since 1998  China (3): AIM/EMF16, RICE99, SGM99,  CPA(2): DNE21/98, IIASA/WEC98  ASIAP(8): 6 for SRES and 2 for pSRES and pSRES2001 AIM, ASF, IMAGE, MARIA, MESSAGE, MiniCAM, LDNE and WorldSCAN Categories of models  Top-down: CGE such as RICE99, SGM99 and WorldSCAN  Bottom-up: energy optimization model such as DNE21/98, LDNE and MESSAGE  Integrated Assessment: combining top-down and bottom-up modules, such as AIM/EMF16, MiniCAM Scenarios developed:  85 reference + 111 policy

6. II. Analysis on Reference Scenarios 85 reference scenarios related to China  China: 3 developed with 3 models  CPA: 5 developed with 2 models  ASIAP: 40 of SRES standardized and 37 of pSRES without standardization

7. Reference Scenarios for China

8. Reference Scenarios for CPA and China/0.95 A2-5.2 A3-0.6 SGM99 RICE99& AIM/EMF16 A1 B

9. Reference Scenarios for ASIAP (6 Markers from SRES) A2-10.74 B1-0.93 CPA/0.5

10. What makes the differences? CPA IIASA/WEC98DNE21/98 1990A1A2A3B1990Ref Pop1242 － 2020 2050 2100 1714 1984 2099 1714 1984 2099 1714 1984 2099 1714 1984 2099 － GDP474 － 2020 2050 2100 3852 13871 44593 3852 13871 44593 3852 13871 44593 2038 6660 26933 － PE4023 2020 2050 2100 106 188 301 106 188 304 105 181 297 88 149 249 56 102 175 Coal2317 2020 2050 2100 62 54 28 69 136 212 60 51 7 50 70 146 32 50 60

11. Assumptions of Driving Forces for 6 SRES Markers 1990A1FIA1BA1TA2B1B2 World population5.3 2020 2050 2100 7.6 8.7 7.1 7.5 8.7 7.1 7.6 8.7 7.0 8.2 11.3 15.1 7.6 8.7 7.0 7.6 9.3 10.4 World GDP 2020 2050 2100 53 164 525 56 181 529 57 187 550 41 82 243 53 136 328 51 110 235 Per capita income ratio (Annex1 to Non-annex 1) 16.1 2020 2050 2100 7.5 2.8 1.5 6.4 2.8 1.6 6.2 2.8 1.6 9.4 6.6 4.2 8.4 3.6 1.8 7.7 4.0 3.0

12. Which Gives the Right Prediction? Possible sources for actual data ResourcesGHGsTime WDI 2004(WB) most countries till 2000 CAIT(WRI), launched in 2003 CO 2 from energy, industrial production, land use changes, (some available but highly uncertain) Non-CO2 1960-2000, CO 2 till 2002 IEA Statistics CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion 1971-2001 EIA (US), updated on July 11, 2005 CO 2 from energy activities1980-2003

13. Comparison of Modeling Results to Actual Data (CPA and China/0.95) Actual data

14. Comparison of Modeling Results to Actual Data of ASIAP Standardization 1990-2000 Actual data

15. Modeling Results Tends to Overestimate Growth of Developing Countries 1990Actual data2000Actual data World CO 2 emissions7.10-7.79- World CO 2 from energy5.995.846.906.5 ASIAP1.151.061.781.58 OECD902.832.853.20 REF1.301.400.91 1.00 ALM0.720.531.01 0.74

16. A Explanation from Driving Forces ASIAP CO 2 1999 CO 2 2000 GDP 1990 ＝ 100 Population 1990 ＝ 100 Energy consumption 1990 ＝ 100 Actual data1.061.58191116142 AIM/SRES- A1B, 1.151.78 180117125 ASF/SRES- A2159118155 IMAGE/SRES-B1194117135 MESSAGE/SRES-A1T180117142 MESSAGE/SRES-B2233116139 MiniCAM/SRES- A1FI218116173

17. III. Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios 111 policy scenarios related to China 103 with stabilization targets from 450-750ppm  China(14): RICE99 and SGM99  CPA( 1): DNE21/98  ASIAP( 88): 72 of pSRES and 16 of pSRES2001 Some scenarios compare different emissions pathways (WRE,WGI or MID) with same stabilization targets, or The impacts of ET (no trade, partial trade or trade)

18. Insights to Stabilization Scenarios Policy scenarios with different stabilization targets base on same reference Policy scenarios based on different reference is pursuit of same stabilization targets Different emissions pathways and the impact of trade conditions Burden-sharing scheme Other possible information on mitigation costs

19. More Reductions Required to Achieve Lower Targets Ref 650 550 450

20. More Reductions Required based on Higher Reference Ref-high Ref-low sta-550

21. Burden-sharing Scheme 550ppm, 2050B2A1BA1FI Total reductions required in the world 11.2-9.9=1.316.4-10.2=6.223.5-10.7=12.8 ASIAP4.1-3.8=0.35.9-3.8=2.110.1-3.9=6.2 EFSU0.20.471.62 OECD0.21.482.31 ROW0.52.152.63 ASIAP’s share in the world23%34%49% ASIAP’s reduction rate7.3%36%61%

22. Feasibility of Policy Scenarios for Developing Countries Analysis on the driving forces 550, 2050, pSRES GDP lossPE decrease Reduction of Coal use Coal/PE B2-0.4% -18 A1B-1.7%-22.6%-51.5%15 A1FI-2.9%-31%-87%8

23. IV. Conclusions: Gaps to be Bridged Compared to mature economy of developed countries, the driving forces of emissions for developing countries are more likely to be fluctuated with high uncertainty. The existing modeling results tend to systematically overestimate the increase of emissions for developing countries. Many general policies in developing countries have clear implications on climate change mitigation. The feasibility and policy implications of stabilization scenarios need to be clarified. The burden sharing schemes implied in stabilization scenarios takes no considerations on some important principles, such as equity and basic needs.