1. 22.06.2009 GHG reduction potential of changes in consumption patterns Evidence from Swiss household consumption survey Bastien Girod and Peter de Haan Institute for environmental decisions (IED), ETH Zurich

2. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch Structure of presentation  Relevance of the research question  Method  Estimate of GHG emissions of consumption  Deriving high and low emitters  Results  Conclusion 2

3. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research Why potential of changing consumption for reducing GHG emissions matters  Problem: Very costly/ hardly feasible to reach low GHG stabilization level only using changing technologies  “We need to change our consumption patterns” Rajendra Pachauri 05.07.2009  Research questions: 1. What is potential influence of changing consumption patterns? 2. Which consumption characteristics make the difference between high and low emitters? 3

4. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research Method for bottom-up estimate 1. Household consumption data (N=14’580)  Surveys 2000 to 2003; all purchases of one month  450 consumption categories  Additional data: Durable goods & household characteristics 2. Derive functional unit of consumption  Example: kg food, pkm car, m 2 shelter, hr service 3. Connect with LCA process  GHG emissions 4

5. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research Derive functional (physical) units 5 Accounting of functional units Share of total GHG emissions Consumption categories Physical data [kg, liter]40%Food, beverage, gasoline (Ø efficiency  pkm) Additional data [m 2 ]29%Living - shelter model for GHG emissions Purchases [n] x “portion size” [(kg, liters, km, hr )/ n] 27%Food, goods, transport services Expenditure [€]4%Services  Resulting GHG estimates comparable to studies using EIO data and expenditure survey or top-town data

6. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research What is the potential of changing consumption?  Best-practice-consumption: 10% of households with lowest GHG emissions  Worst-practice-consumption: 10% of households with highest GHG emissions  Advantage:  No assumption on what would be possible  Consistent consumption pattern (rebound included) 6

7. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research GHG emissions of household types

8. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research GHG emissions of household types

9. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research GHG emissions of household types

10. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research GHG emissions hh type & income group

11. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research Same income group and household type

12. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research Same income group and household type

13. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research Comparison of high and low emitters Mean

14. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research GHG emissions [kgCO 2 e/yr] CategoryMean GHG emissions allocated to functional units kg CO 2 /yr Low High food 1'042 -163 113 beverage 111 -23 15 eating out 408 -23 4 living 2'918 -1'257 1'717 electricity 843 -315 566 furnishing 496 -228 364 clothes 116 9 -11 other goods565-171.1139.1 books and news 66 -11 9 personal hygiene 89 3 -10 car 2'215 -1'471 2'065 public traffic 241 164 -57 airplane 211 -211 1'353 services (t)8948-20 services (s)96-71 transfers155-2826 Total 9'660 -3'684 6'273 Note: “High/low” refers to the highest respectively lowest 10 percent of households considering total GHG emissions. Red background marks deviations towards higher emissions, green towards lower emissions. 14

15. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research High and low emitters matter For instance, the Swiss Kyoto target of reducing GHG emissions by 8 percent (compared to 1990) by 2010 could be reached if:  the share of households showing best-practice consumption were to increase by 15 percent  9 percent of the households showing worst-practice consumption patterns were to shift to a consumption pattern with average emissions 15

16. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research Expenditure[CHF/yr] 16 CategoryMean GHG emissions allocated to functional units CHF/yr Low High food 5'081-9.7%4.2% housing 6'4352.5%-0.2% - shelter 6'1464.4%-3.3% - electricity 288.8-37.5%67.1% goods 4'033-1.5%2.3% mobility 4'093-31.1%30.5% - car 3'672-37.2%23.4% - public traffic 35345.4%-13.5% - airplane 68-100.0%640.7% leisure 3'12945.4%-16.1% services 3'350-0.5%0.1% Total 26120.7-1.0%4.0% Note: “High/low” refers to the highest respectively lowest 10 percent of households considering total GHG emissions. Red background marks higher expenditure compared to mean, green towards lower expenditure.

17. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research Prices [CHF/functional unit] 17 Category Functional unitMean GHG emissions allocated to functional units CHF/fu Low High foodkg8.47.8%-3.6% housingm2m2 155.023.6%-16.6% goodskg17.446.8%-39.7% mobilitypkm0.396.1%-48.9% leisureh4.547.9%-16.2% Note: “High/low” refers to the highest respectively lowest 10 percent of households considering total GHG emissions. Red background marks higher prices compared to mean, green towards lower prices.

18. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research GHG intensity [kgCO 2 /functional unit] 18 Functional unit Mean GHG emissions allocated to functional units kgCO 2 / fu Low High food kg 2.6-3.7%4.6% housing m2m2 90.6-29.8%34.2% goods kg 5.7-19.2%3.9% mobility pkm 0.190.2%-5.8% leisure h 0.1312.2%-11.4% services CHF 0.03-6.9%0.5% Note: “High/low” refers to the highest respectively lowest 10 percent of households considering total GHG emissions. Red background marks higher GHG emissions per functional unit compared to mean, green towards lower GHG emissions per functional unit.

19. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research Consumption characteristics 19 Consumption attributes Mean value based on physical units low 10%high 10% Organic [n/month × pers.] 3.130%-22% Single family house [n / h.h.] 0.29-52%103% "Green" heating [n/ household] 0.16182%-50% Car use [pkm/month × pers.] 842-71%104%

20. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research Conclusion for mitigation policy  Few crucial consumption categories  car use, airplane, living and electricity. remaining variance can be explained by goods and food.  No absolute indicators for low GHG footprint  Consider total GHG emissions of households  Promote expenditure on quality and leisure 20

21. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research Conclusions for research on impact of quality We found that “green” consumer opt for higher quality.  But: higher quality goods might also lead to higher impact  Use of more exclusive materials, processing, less economy of scales  Also the opposite can be true  Organic food, longer life time, regional production (transport, energy mix, environmental standards) 21

22. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch Thank you for questions and comments bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch 22

23. 05.07.2009 Bastien Girod / Environmental Decisions (IED) / bastien.girod@env.ethz.ch RelevanceMethod Results Conclusion GHGe estimates functional units best-/worst practice low-/ high emitters GHG emissions consumption mattersspendingprice GHG e intensity organic food for policy- maker for research What is the potential of changing consumption?  Best-practice-consumption: Emitters with lowest GHG emissions  Worst-practice-consumption: Emitters with highest GHG emissions  Consideration of household types and income  Advantage:  No assumption on what would be possible  Consistent consumption pattern (rebound included) 23