2. Helsinki Convention 1992 We...take all appropriate measures “... to prevent and eliminate pollution in order to promote the ecological restoration of the Baltic Sea Area and the preservation of its ecological balance." (Article 3, Fundamental principles and obligations) “... to conserve natural habitats and biological diversity and to protect ecological processes... also be taken in order to ensure the sustainable use of natural resources within the Baltic Sea Area. “ (Article 15, Nature conservation and biodiversity)

3. Parallel example: UNFCCC 1992 “...achieve stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”

4. Ecosystem approach HELCOM – OSPAR Ministerial Meeting in 2003 HELCOM Ministerial meeting 2007 EU MSFD (2008)

5. Quantitative ecostandards 1900 2000 2050 Reference level Target level Acceptable deviation Bad Poor Moderate Good High Central question: ”acceptable deviation”

6. Treshold values Scheffer M et. al (2001) Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413: 591-596

7. Examples of acceptable UNFCCC harmful climate change –IPCC: +2-3  C / 450 ppm –Hansen et al 2008: +1  C/ 350 ppm CO 2 Trail smelter tribunal (1939) –if Columbia gardens recorder indicates 0.5 ppm SOx for 1 hr consecutively during non-growing season and wind is not favourable emissions shall be reduced by 4 tons S/h or shut down until recorder shows 0.2 ppm for 1 hr

8. ”good status”

9. Nutrient Pollution assessment 2009 (covering years 2001- 2007) 189 areas: 17 open seas 172 coastal Not Nutrient polluted (13): 2 open seas 11 coastal Nutrient polluted (176): 15 open seas 161 coastal areas HELCOM. 2009. Eutrophication in the Baltic Sea. BSEP 115B

10. Possibilities Blue-green algal blooms increase or decrease by 50% Frederik Wulff/Stockholm University/BNI 2007

11. Baltic Sea pressure index

12. Secretariat www.helcom.fi

13. Thank you www.helcom.fi