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The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 Nick Jones – Corporate Strategic Planning May 30, 2014 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
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Global Progress Drives Demand Billion PopulationGDP Trillion 2005$ Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 0.8% Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 2.8% OECD Non OECD ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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People’s Living Standard Depends on Energy ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Energy Saved ~500 Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Energy Demand Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 1.0% Global Progress Drives Demand Billion PopulationGDP Trillion 2005$ Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 0.8% Average Growth / Yr. 2010 – 2040 2.8% OECD Non OECD ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Energy Demand by Sector Quadrillion BTUs 2010 2025 2040 Electricity Generation Leads Growth ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Industrial
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By Sector Energy Industry Chemicals Heavy Industry Other Percent Share By Fuel Percent Share Other Oil Oil NGLs Naphtha Other Electricity Coal Gas Industrial Energy Demand By Region Quadrillion BTUs OECD China India Rest of Non OECD 2010 2040 ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Transportation
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Commercial Transportation by Region - 2040Sector Demand MBDOE Light Duty Marine Rail Heavy Duty Aviation Transportation Demand MBDOE 2010 ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Electricity Generation
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2040 1000 KWh per Capita Population (Billions) Electricity Use Electricity Use by Region Growth in Electricity Demand 2010 – 2040 ~90% ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Electricity Demand Global Electrical Demand by Sector Thousand TWh Residential Commercial Heavy Industry Other Industry Transportation Global Electrical Demand by Fuel Thousand TWh Wind & Solar Oil Coal Nuclear Other Renewables Gas ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Plant Cost, Startup 2030 CCS Onshore Wind Gas Coal Gas 2013 cents/kWh CoalNuclear $60/tonne of CO 2 $0/tonne Solar PV Utility CCS Onshore Wind Gas Coal Gas 2013 cents/kWh CoalNuclear *Reliability cost includes integration, backup capacity and additional transmission costs. Economic Choices for U.S. Electricity BaseloadIntermittent Reliability Cost* ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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United States Electricity Demand Electricity Generation Fuel Consumption Quadrillion BTUs Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass Electricity Demand Thousand Terawatt Hour Wind & Solar Other Renewables ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Emissions
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Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions by Region Billion Tonnes Latin America Middle East Africa Asia Pacific North America Russia/Caspian Europe 2010 2040 Emissions per Capita Tonnes / Person CO 2 Emissions Plateau ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Energy Mix Continues to Evolve Quadrillion BTUs Average Growth / Yr. 2010 - 2040 1.0% 2040 2010 0.7% 1.7% 0.0% 2.5% 0.4% 5.9% 2.0% ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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Supply
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Global Liquids and Gas Supply MBDOE Global Liquids Supply BCFD North America Conventional North America Unconventional Global Gas Supply Rest of World Conventional Rest of World Unconventional ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy Other Liquids Biofuels Conventional Crude & Condensate Tight Oil Oil Sands NGLs Deepwater
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Energy Use Evolves Over Time Percent Global Percent Mix of Fuels 18001900200018501950 Biomass Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear Other Renewables Source: Smil, Energy Transitions (1800-1960) 2040
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Conclusions ExxonMobil 2014 Outlook for Energy
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