1. Population Change Over Time Change in India’s population totals, age-sex structure & natural increase

2. The Growing Population At the start of this year India had a total population of approximately 1.18 Billion people, and numbers are rising. India’s population has grown from just over 350 million to 1 billion in the past 50 years. This has lead to a number of changes in India’s population structure. It has also lead to a number of population issues.

3. India’s Total Population Growth Year Total Population 1950 357,000,000 1960443,000,000 1970 553,000,000 1980 684,000,000 1990 838,141,000 2000 1,004,000,000 20101,190,000,000 20201,365,000,000 20301,550,000,000 20401,690,000,000 20501,810,000,000 The Growing Population Graph the information below to show the rate of change. Make sure your graph time scale goes to 2050

4. 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 1950196019701980 1990200020102020203020402050 Population (1,000s) Years India’s Total Population Growth from 1950-2050 Population Growth Projected Future Population Growth

5. The Growing Population The completed graph shows that India has grown rapidly in the last 50 years and future growth, although at a slower rate, will continue to a point which will make India the largest population in the world. Overtaking China on or before 2050 on these projections. Why is India Growing Like This? To explain India’s growth rate you must break down all the factors that contribute to the total population. This is shown clearly in the ‘Bathtub Model’.

6. H Drain C Water Level E Evaporation Population Equations The Bathtub Model The Bathtub Model is used to show the main factors in Population Change. KEY: Emigration Death Rate Water Level= Cold Tap= Evaporation= Hot Tap= Drain= Immigration Total Population Birth Rate

7. Immigration Death Rate Birth Rate Water Level E Emigration Population Equations Natural Increase Total Population Change Birth RateDeath Rate Birth Rate Death Rate Immi Emig Natural Increase Migration

8. The Bathtub Model Explained The Bathtub model shows that there are 4 main factors that contribute to the total population – Birth Rate (BR), Death Rate (DR), Immigration (I) and Emigration (E). These are shown clearly in the Population Equation or The Bathtub Model. Change in one factor leads to a change in total population. Lets have a closer look at Natural Increase (BR and DR)

9. Death RateNatural Increase Birth Rate 1891190119111921193119511941196119711981 1991 2001 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 Birth/ Death Rates per 1000 Year 2011 Changes in India’s Birth and Death Rates (per 1000 people) 1891 to 2011 Year91011121314151617181910111 Birth (per 1000) 48464948474441424136302321 Deaths (per 1000) 424443484131272219151097 Natural Increase

10. Death Rate Natural Increase Birth Rate Stage One Stage Two Stage Three Demographic Transition Model TV Population Policy 1952 Birth control and health made available Education Population problem is taught in the school curriculum State of Emergency Forced sterilizations in many areas The advancement of women economically, academically, and socially, as independent women are more likely to have small families. Birth Control P 1891190119111921193119511941196119711981 19912001 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 Birth/ Death Rates per 1000 Year 2011 Changes in India’s Birth and Death Rates (per 1000 people) 1891 to 2011

11. The Demographic Transition Model The BR and DR (Natural Increase) that you have just plotted is called the Demographic Transition Model. India is considered to be in Stage 3, New Zealand in Stage 4.

12. Stage ONE Stage TWO Stage THREE Stage FOUR The Demographic Transition Model Low High People per 1000 Natural IncreaseDeath RateBirth Rate STAGE ONE: Pre-industrial society, death rates and birth rates are high and roughly in balance. Age-Sex Pyramid has very large % of young dependents. Life Expectancy low. STAGE TWO: A developing country. DR drops rapidly due to improvements in food supply and sanitation, this increase life spans & reduce disease. These changes come about due to improvements in farming techniques, access to technology, basic healthcare, and education. Without a similar fall in BRs this produces an imbalance, a large increase in population results. STAGE THREE: BRs fall due to access to contraception, increases in wages, urbanization, a reduction in subsistence agriculture, an increase in the status and education of women, a reduction in the value of children's work, an increase in education of children. Population growth begins to level off. STAGE FOUR: Low BRs & DRs. BRs may drop to well below replacement level like Japan, leading to a shrinking population. As the large group born during stage two ages, it creates an economic burden on the shrinking working age group. DRs may remain low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries.

13. So Why is India’s Total Population Changing? On India’s Demographic Transition Model you can see that since 1950, India’s Birth Rate has dropped – this means that although India’s population is growing, it is growing at a slower rate than previously. This is due to the introduction of a number of family planning initiatives aimed at lowering the birth rate. Nirodh your condom friend Family Planning MusicalBirth Spacing - Pakistan The SMART pill Family Planning on Television

14. Family Planning adverts from India’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare

15. Posters are used to illustrate the range of important issues India's population policy addresses today, including advocating child spacing, informing women and men about the range and availability of contraceptive methods, promoting small family size, and presenting sterilization in a more humane light. Another key issue that Indian public information campaigns have widely targeted is favoritism for boy children, a deeply ingrained tradition that drives couples to have more children. To view the posters, click on the thumbnails below.

16. Are these not girls? Why only a boy?

18. For a healthy family, wait three years before your second child. You can get these family- planning methods from government health workers, hospitals, and health centres for free.

19. Tying the tubes of women is now extremely simple. Laparoscopy is the newest method. The hospital releases you quickly. The scar is very light. This service is available at hospitals and health centres. 1996

20. Why high BRs? Why low BRs? VSVS Children provide families with labour and wages Children are a family’s insurance against future problems Religious beliefs place a high value on children Large families provide status for head of the family Contraception is not readily available or understood in rural areas Costs of education and urban chidlcare are too high Gain Higher Living Standards Government believes it will halt the whole countries economic growth Less poverty for lower castes in rural areas

21. Change in India’s Age-Sex Composition As the Indian Government wants families to have less children, pressure has now come onto those families to have boys.

22. Change in India’s Age-Sex Composition As the Indian Government wants families to have less children, pressure has now come onto those families to have boys. Why should I waste my money feeding and educating a girl for someone else’s benefit? Zaheer My adult son will look after me in my old age, my girls are gone to other families and their husbands will not take me into their home. Vijay As a father of 8 boys I am the most respected elder in the village. This would not be the same if I had had 8 girls! Rahul When I had to pay my 3 daughters dowry, I had to take a large loan from the village money lender – I am still paying this off, 30 years later. Mahendra

23. Change in India’s Living Standards

24. Problems Associated with India’s Changing Population Issues with a LARGE POPULATION 1 Overcrowding of cities, infrastructure 2 Traffic problems 3 Limited resources -water, food 4 Lack of facilities - low cost housing 5 Environmental concerns 6 Government enforcement of policy to slow growth Issues with a YOUTHFUL POPULATION 1 Education spread thinly - or lack of higher education 2 Lack of resources specifically for children 3 Too big in number for working popn to support appropriately 4 Burden on parents to provide any extras (or basics)

25. SUMMARY – India’s Changing Population India’s total population has grown consistently over the last 60 years and is currently growing at 1.7%. India has a large proportional of young dependents, but this has dropped considerably since 1970 and the introduction of family planning methods introduced by the Indian government. India is in Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model and Birth Rates should continue to drop due to increased education of women Unfortunately a side effect of this family planning strategy is the even greater importance placed on boys. Males outnumber females in all age groups.