1. www.institutions-africa.org Findings from two European-led research programmes Part 2: Getting the politics right for economic transformation in Africa David Booth, Africa Power and Politics, ODI, London Johns Hopkins – SAIS, Washington DC, 12 March 2012

2. www.institutions-africa.org Overview The problem 1: economic growth and economic transformation in Africa The problem 2: what about the politics? What do we know about rent-seeking and transformation in Africa? Conclusions

3. www.institutions-africa.org The problem 1: Not just economic growth … Economic headlines of 2010: Africa on the move  McKinsey report “Lions on the Move”: accelerating growth during 2000s; not just a resource boom  Steven Radelet CGA book: steady economic growth and democratisation since mid-1990s in 17 “cheetah” countries Economic headlines of 2011: not just growth but … Justin Lin K.Y. Amoako UN ECA … economic transformation

4. www.institutions-africa.org The challenge of economic transformation Structural change (diversification of production and exports) Productivity breakthroughs in smallholder agriculture (esp. Tracking Development) Acquisition of skills and technological capabilities by firms + anticipation of comparative advantages (especially Lin) And, therefore, an active state, to  tackle major infrastructure obstacles (transport, power, water)  free-up markets for inputs and outputs  improve health, education and skills  facilitate and force firms to grow and upgrade But …

5. www.institutions-africa.org The problem 2: What about the politics? A 30-year conventional wisdom about Africa has ruled out successful state interventionism:  Inevitability of political corruption and managerial inefficiency – “rent seeking”, “neopatrimonialism”  “First get good governance” – so that states are accountable to citizens  That means better public financial management, multi-party elections and … democratic decentralization Global hype around the Arab Spring – renewal of public belief in democratization as magic bullet The trouble is:  Asian experience does not support the Good Governance orthodoxy or popular faith in democracy as the solution to all problems …  … nor does African experience

6. www.institutions-africa.org What do we know about “rent seeking” and transformation in Africa? In Africa as in Asia, the formula that seems to work for transformation combines  A mechanism enabling centralization of control of economic rents and their deployment with a view to the (relatively) long term  Political protection for competent, socially embedded, sector bureaucracies Recent theory tells us why this should be the case Historically, this “developmental patrimonialism” has only happened under two particular conditions …

7. www.institutions-africa.org Rarely, if ever, have developmental regimes emerged from multi-party electoral competition … why? In history, elections and liberal-democratic institutions have very different effects in different socio-economic settings Until societies have substantial organizational capacity, so that promises to deliver public goods are realistic and credible … … it will always be cost effective to win elections with bold gestures plus distribution of private rewards (and punishments) to voters and clients The short-termism that elections generate is worse, and more damaging for development, when countries are divided into big ethnic blocs, and the Constitution says “winner takes all”

8. www.institutions-africa.org Conclusions Developmental patrimonialism is not a new “model”  Questions about origins and durability  In Africa, policies still weak on smallholder transformation The challenge is to make democracy safe for development:  Ways of blunting competitive clientelism, short-termism and “winner takes all” Is there a role for the international community in this? If we can be:  Humble about our knowledge of “what works”  Aware that in history all good things don’t go together  Resistant to global bandwagons  Engaged enough to undertake painstaking analysis of the political economy of possible change, country by country Thank you!

9. www.institutions-africa.org Developmental regimes in Africa brings together Tracking Development, led by the ASC & KITLV inter- institutes of Leiden University, Netherlands and Africa Power and Politics, led by the Overseas Development Institute, London. The project is supported by the Netherlands Ministry of Foreign Affairs