1. Slide 1 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Cook Inlet Operational Forecast System (CIOFS) Quarterly Management Review Phase 1Phase 2Phase 3Phase 4Phase 5Phase 6 ConceptFeasibilityPlanningDev & TestTrans/DelClosure Original (Nov-10) N/A Nov-10 Sep-11Jan-12Mar-12 Quarterly Review (Jun-12) Feb-13Apr-13Dec-13 Quarterly Review (Sep-12) May-13Jul-13Feb-14 Quarterly Review (Jan-13) Aug-13Sep-13Feb-14 Update (Mar-13) Aug-13Sep-13Feb-14 Quarterly Review (Jul-13) Dec-14Feb-15Apr-15 Quarterly Review (Nov-13) Dec-14Jun-15Aug-15 Quarterly Review (Feb-14) Sep-15Mar-16May-16 Quarterly Review (Sep-14) May-15 Mar-16 Quarterly Review (Dec-14) May-15 Mar-16 Quarterly Review (Mar-15) Nov-15 Aug-16 Quarterly Review (Jun-15) Nov-15 Aug-16

2. Slide 2 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Cook Inlet OFS Project Overview Project Description ● ROMS model OFS developed to forecast water elevations, currents, temperature and salinity for Cook Inlet, AK region. ● Additional deliverables: Marine hydrokinetic energy metrics Digital Elevation Model, data and software/tools Project Team ● CSDL: Lyon Lanerolle (Project Manager) ● CO-OPS: Aijun Zhang (Operations) Measure of Success Meet NOS skill assessment criteria for water elevations, currents, temperature and salinity model predictions Provide useful/adaptable tools to identified user community Develop and provide useful metrics for marine hydrokinetic energy Accessible to user community Stakeholders ● Champion - CSDL, CO-OPS ● Owner - CSDL ● Internal Customers - VDatum Program ● External Customers - CO-OPS; Marine navigation community, AOOS, IOOS, ORR/HAZMAT, AK Energy Authority (AEA), ecological community, recreational users ● End-users - CO-OPS ● Suppliers - OCS, USGS, NGS, NWS, AEA, AOOS, Dynalysis

3. Slide 3 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Progress Since Last Review: Completed Rutgers University Ice Suppression algorithm tests & reported results to CSDL, CO-OPS, RU Conducted search for CIOFS Hindcast-1 extension sub-tidal OB forcing (to address spin-up issue, etc.) :  GRTOFS (only available going back 2 years)  ETSS (only available going back ~2 years)  ESTOFS (not available forHindcast-1 extension time period)  Observations (available! - But only at few localized places) Downloaded USGS river discharges & temperatures, QA/QC’ed them and generated river forcing for full 2012 year (to extend CIOFS Hindcast-1 until 2012/12/31) Compiled list of potential water level, current, temperature and salinity observational data sources for CIOFS Hindcast-2 model prediction evaluation Conducted extensive literature survey on COARE Bulk Flux formulation updates, communicated with author, explored alternative formulations and reported results to CSDL, CO-OPS and RU. Strictly, Bulk flux formulation not valid when: (1) near coastal regions, (2) water and air temperature less than zero, (3) winds > 20 m/s ← all of which occur in CIOFS but no other alternative to the COARE formulation! Re-ran CIOFS Hindcast-1 with interpolated observed sub-tidal water level open boundary forcing and re-did skill assessment (with intention of extending simulation until 2012/12/31) Cook Inlet OFS Progress and Expected Results - 1

4. Slide 4 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Progress Since Last Review: Sub-tidal open boundary forcing for Hindcast-1 extension The only stations found with sub-tidal water level data were those from CO-OPS Cook Inlet OFS Progress and Expected Results - 2 Sand Point gauge is far from model domain Observed sub-tidal time-series correlated together more closely and have more temporal variation

5. Slide 5 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Progress Since Last Review: Sub-tidal open boundary forcing for Hindcast-1 extension Cook Inlet OFS Progress and Expected Results - 3 Observed sub-tides are centered ~zero axis whereas GRTOFS has positive shift Observed sub-tides have a greater amplitude relative to GRTOFS Observed sub-tides have greater content of high frequency information

6. Slide 6 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Progress Since Last Review: Hindcast-1 re-run WL & Currents skill assessment WL Amplitude Error (cm): Raw WL Amplitude Error (cm): De-meaned WL Phase Error (min.) WL amplitude errors better with observed sub-tides & changes less after de-meaning Phase accuracy of model predicted WL continues to be very good Currents amplitude and phase errors of GRTOFS and observed sub-tides are comparable Cook Inlet OFS Progress and Expected Results - 4 Seldovia Nikiski Anchorage GRTOFS 31.7 31.4 56.0 Obs. 18.9 20.0 43.1 Seldovia Nikiski Anchorage GRTOFS 14.5 17.3 23.5 Obs. 13.5 16.3 23.3 Seldovia Nikiski Anchorage GRTOFS 1.0 0.0 -3.0 Obs. 1.0 0.0 -3.0 Current Amplitude Error (cm/s) Current Phase Error (min.)

7. Slide 7 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Progress Since Last Review: Hindcast-1 re-run T & S skill assessment Cook Inlet OFS Progress and Expected Results - 5 Observed sub-tides generate better T & S predictions T & S errors (in value and range) less in August than June → spin-up issue! Conclusions: (1) Need to extend Hindcast-1 to get spun-up/converged ICs for Hindcast-1 (2) Can use interpolated observed sub-tides as OBC in place of GRTOFS for (1)

8. Slide 8 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Expected Results in Next Quarter: Download the latest trunk version of ROMS and re-run Hindcast-1 and ensure backward compatibility (DELAYED FROM LAST QUARTER: Awaiting RU response indicating ice suppression algorithm is in main ROMS trunk before downloading ROMS and re-running Hindcast-1) Extend Hindcast-1 from 08/31/2012 to 12/31/2012. Using flow-fields from 12/31/2012 as model initialization, re-run Hindcast-1 (up to 12/31/2012) to avoid slow spin-up issue (and further improve T, S) and re-do skill assessment (DELAYED FROM LAST QUARTER: No GRTOFS, ETSS or ESTOFS forcing data for 2012 and now using observed data) Acquire and QA/QC model forcing and evaluation datasets for Hindcast-2 Generate model forcings (open boundary, meteorological, river) for Hindcast-2 simulation Begin running CIOFS Hindcast-2 and monitor runs & model predictions Cook Inlet OFS Progress and Expected Results

9. Slide 9 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Risks, Issues, Possible Mitigation: Cook Inlet OFS Risks, Issues, Possible Mitigation Risk Probability Impact Mitigation Low quality bathy & VDatum in upper CI Medium ? WL, Current SA show model is OK Better bathy & Vdatum in future when Vdatum for AK is achieved/ Publish re-meaned WL Unavailability of forcing data for Hindcast-2 Medium High (for sub-tidal forcing) Use alternate product (e.g. daily HYCOM) * Unavailability of sufficient observations to evaluate Hindcast-2 Low/Medium (WL, Currents/T,S) HighEvaluate CIOFS with any available data (e.g. from collaborators in AK) ** Lack of CPU hours on Jet due to allocation limit Medium/High (non-Summer/Summer) HighBuild-in additional time into schedule Delay in getting forcing data (Technicians’ time) Medium? High ? * Hindcast-2 will cover the past two years for which forcing is available ** Only currents observations may be unavailable; WL (CO-OPS), T, S (AK collaborators) available

10. Slide 10 Coast Survey Model Advisory Board Meeting, December 12, 2014 Cook Inlet OFS Schedule, Current Phase Development & TestingEstimated DurationPlanned Completion DateActual Compl. Date Tides w/o wetting/drying3 months4/1/12 Add DEM, tides with wetting/drying and add nests4 months8/1/128/20/2012 Hindcast 1 for 6/11-8/20 20122 to 3 months10/2/12 11/1/12 2/15/133/31/13 Testing new improved grid (Tides and Hindcast-1)6 months 11/1/13 1/1/14 9/1/14 11/1/14 1/15/15 * Additional Hindcast-1 testing (ICs, W/D debug, CPPs)2 months1/1/153/1/15 Additional ROMS testing (Rutgers suggested T-S nudging & ice suppression, backward comp. of ROMS trunk code, etc.) 2 months5/1/15 Compiling model forcing & evaluation data (especially T,S)2 months7/1/15 Hindcast-2 for 2012-20143.5 months 3/1/14 5/1/14 2/1/15 4/15/15 10/15/15 Complete Hindcast-2 analysis1 month 5/1/14 7/1/14 4/1/15 5/15/15 11/15/15 Transition to CO-OPSEstimated DurationPlanned Completion DateActual Compl. Date Deliver model system to CO-OPS0.5 months 7/1/14 9/1/14 6/1/15 12/1/15 CIOFS Production Implementation9 months4/1/15 6/1/15 3/1/16 9/1/16 * Interrupted/Delayed due to Wetting/Drying ROMS code bug (later fixed by Rutgers University)