1. Future Scenarios for the Adoption Sector Presented by Aliya Saied-Tessier 11/03/16

2. Outline Context Flows into the system Adopter gap analysis Stockpile of adopters and recruitment Snapshot analysis Placements ‘Harder to place’ children and cashflow Regional analysis Economic contribution of the sector

3. Introduction What the presentation will cover: Future scenarios based on historic data A range of possibilities for the future to support planning What the presentation will not cover: A definitive prediction about exactly what will happen in the future

4. Context There are two stories about flows into the adoption system for pre- and post 2012*. Prior to 2012 there is an growing trend of increasing numbers of children flowing into the adoption system. From 2012 there is a sharp reversal of this trend and the sector has contracted since then. * throughout the presentation we refer to financial years unless specified otherwise Source: Children Looked After Statistics

5. New Placement Orders by region All regions have seen a decline in new placement orders since early 2013, however the extent of the decline varies across England. East Midlands has had relatively small fall in new placement orders while the North West and South East have seen substantial falls. Source: Children Looked After Statistics

6. New Placement Orders by LA Source: ALB statistics, Contains quarterly data which has been suppressed due to a count less than 5. Average value is used in the analysis. Many of the LAs most affected by the fall in new placement orders saw falls throughout 2014 and 2015. Kent has seen a particularly large fall in new placement orders.

7. Flows into the adoption system

8. Scenarios – adopter gap analysis What will the adopter gap be under different scenarios for POs and adopter recruitment activity? We look at 2 scenarios to see the difference. The adopter surplus disappears in both scenarios in Q4 2015/16. The adopter surplus returns in the scenario with increased LA activity and is around 370 at its peak. The % VAA ROIs is around 21% in both scenarios. Discuss: how responsive can recruitment be to changes in POs?

9. Stockpiling of Approved Adopters Since 2014, VAAs have seen a slight, steady increase in the stockpile of approved adopters. However there has been a 38 percent increase in adopters waiting to be matched by LAs – a much larger increase. The total adopter stockpile at the end of Q1 2015/16 was 3,420 approved adopters. The stockpile depends on approvals and placements. We first look at how stockpile changes given different paths for approvals (keeping placements the same in both scenarios). Source: Adoption Leadership Board Quarterly Data Reports and CVAA Global Dashboard - February 2016

10. Scenarios – stockpile and recruitment Both these scenarios have the same placements so all variation is driven by different approvals activity. If approval activity continues to decline as it has in the past 4 quarters, the stockpile falls slightly – 3,408 at the end of 2016/7 compared to 3,570 in Q2 2015/16. VAA market share grows as LAs decline more quickly. If approval activity returns to 2014/15 levels, the stockpile continues to grow.

11. What does this mean for VAA recruitment? This chart shows what VAA registrations are required for the two approvals scenarios. The approval decline scenario has VAA market share of 17% while the approvals returning to 2015 levels has VAA market share of 15%. The difference in registrations is on average 35 adopters per quarter.

12. Snapshot adopter stockpile analysis

13. Snapshot analysis – Adoption Register and Link Maker Source: National Adoption Register and Link Maker The overall average waiting time for approved adopters on the Adoption Register and Link Maker was 241.1 days. On average adopters who had been approved by LAs waited slightly longer than those approved by VAAs (251 days compared to 241 days). On average single approved adopters waited longer than those in couples (270 days compared to 244 days). On average same sex couples waited less time than non same sex couples (singles and heterosexual couples). They waited on average 204 days. Note that many factors contribute to each approved adopter’s waiting time. If you took this snapshot at different times over the year the results could be very different.

14. VAA vs LA matches on the Register

15. Adoption Register Matches 1/2 In the past year, 88 of 167 adoption register matches were made by VAAs. VAAs and LAs place similar numbers of children from the adoption register.

16. Adoption Register Matches 2/2 Exchange days account for approximately 40 percent of matches by LAs and VAAs. The most common method of making a match was through an operator.

17. Placements

18. Placements - context ALB data shows the number of placements has fallen for both LAs and VAAs between Q4 2013 to Q2 2015 – though LAs have seen a larger fall while VAA placements have been more steady.

19. Placements - scenarios If VAA and LA placements continue to decline as they did between 2014 and 2015 for another year before stabilising there are 2,863 placements in 2015 and 2,445 placements in 2016. VAA market share follows a slight downward trend in this scenario (they declined slightly quicker). Lowest market share is 12% at the end of 2016 and the average is 15%. If the sector recovers over the next 3 quarters to previous levels, placements will be 3,180 in 2015 and 3,620 placements in 2016. VAA market share has a low of 12% and average of 15%.

20. Placements - scenarios In this scenario LAs recover quickly while VAAs decline throughout 2015 and 2016. There are 3,143 placements in 2015 and 3,475 placements in 2016. VAA market share falls more dramatically in this scenario – its lowest point is 8% and the average is 12%. VAA placements LA placements Total placements Average VAA Market Share 2015 Decline continues for 1 year 423 2,440 2,86315% Placements stabilise 460 2,720 3,18014% LA recovers, VAA decline 423 2,720 3,14313% 2016 Decline continues for 1 year 385 2,061 2,44516% Placements stabilise 530 3,090 3,62015% LA recovers, VAA decline 385 3,090 3,47511%

21. Children deemed harder to place

22. Children deemed harder to place - context There has been a steady upwards increase in the % of placements made by VAAs involving children who are ‘harder to place’. While it is never easy to place a child, when we refer to harder to place we are referring to the EG definition. An increasing proportion of ‘harder to place’ children is likely to have important cost implications for VAAs as parents may need additional preparation and the family may need increased support post- placement (intensity and duration). Source: Expansion Grant Data note the criteria for HTP is more inclusive than ALB

23. Children deemed harder to place – cashflow impact (illustrative) 1/2 This illustrates the placements and fees received for a small fictional VAA that experiences growth in placing children deemed harder to place before stabilising at earlier levels. Before periods of growth in placements there is frequently a lull in cash receipts – precisely at the time when costs of preparing parents are likely to be high.

24. Children deemed harder to place – cashflow impact (illustrative) 2/2 As the fictional VAA places children, they stay on their books possibly providing ongoing support until they are 18. If there is a decline in children placed, as illustrated in this scenario there is a clear mismatch between income from the interagency fee and ongoing costs required to support children.

25. Regional Analysis

26. Regional Analysis - RAA

27. LA Placements – Regional Analysis 1/2 A review of 380 adoption cases in 2015 revealed that approximately 70 percent of children were provided placements in the LA where they commenced the adoption process. Leeds, Isle of Wight, Herefordshire, Leicestershire and Plymouth had the most internal placements. Approximately 18 percent of adoption placements were with LAs in a different region. The East of England and Yorkshire and the Humber had a particularly large portion of interregional placements. Source: Adoption Records

28. LA Placements – Regional Analysis 2/2 Only 10 percent of children were provided placements with a different LA in the same region. Of the cases reviewed, the North West had the most within-region adoption placements. Source: Adoption Records