1. April 2016 HSR Workshop York 1 Jim Steer Director Greengauge 21 HS2 Objectives “what are the economic, operational (especially capacity and connectivity) and environmental objectives that underpin HS2?” HSR Workshop York April 2016

2. Command paper 7827, March 2010 April 2016 HSR Workshop York 2

3. overview April 2016 HSR Workshop York 3 “process from which the scheme emerged” timeline and context HSR → HS2 corridor → HS2 design “objectives that underpin the HS2 project” (economic, operational & environmental) capacity connectivity environmental questions

4. Timeline 1981 TGV (and APT…) 1999 Virgin bid for a long term East Coast franchise 2000 Shadow SRA commissions HSR studies 2004 Atkins study on DfT web-site http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/+/http:/www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/rail/ researchtech/research/hspeedlinestudysummaryreport.pdf 2006 Greengauge 21 HSR Manifesto and 2007 HS2: a Proposition 2008 Conservative Party Commits to funding HSR London – Manchester/Leeds 2009 HS2 Ltd established and New Lines study (Network Rail) and Fast Forward (Greengauge 21) published 2010 Cmnd 7827 and Strategic Case (2013) and update (2015) all DfT April 2016 HSR Workshop York 4

5. Greengauge 21 Manifesto January 2006 (1) “High Speed Rail…can extend the range of the London effect, so that a much larger part of the country can exploit the opportunities of the world city economy. This means that businesses in the midlands and the north can participate in the economic advantages enjoyed by the south. At the same time, the pressure for development in the southern regions will be eased. We would create for ourselves an alternative to continuing near-total dependence on the least sustainable forms of long distance transport. These are the reasons why Greengauge21 is promoting the concept of a network of high speed railway lines to be built over the next few decades. The network can be developed incrementally, starting from a single line.” April 2016 HSR Workshop York 5

6. Greengauge 21 Manifesto January 2006 (2) The advantages of high speed rail are: An accessibility transformation for the regions across Britain served by new high speed trains, providing the missing stimulus to local and regional economic regeneration An increase in the capacity of the commuter network into London, allowing its economy to continue its growth as a world city, and to a lesser extent commuting advantages for other cities/conurbations as well Fast and reliable surface access from the regions to London’s airports, especially Heathrow and the possibility of linking into regional airports as well The provision of a framework for the creation of an attractive, interconnected transport system, right across the country. April 2016 HSR Workshop York 6

7. Context (1) April 2016 HSR Workshop York 7

8. Context (2) April 2016 HSR Workshop York 8

9. HSR → HS2 corridor → HS2 design April 2016 HSR Workshop York 9

10. Capacity – evidence of need April 2016 HSR Workshop York 10 Demand growth capped Performance reliability

11. Also about making more efficient use of existing lines by reducing running time differentials One approach is a connected timetable… April 2016 HSR Workshop York 11

12. Connectivity – evidence on regional economies April 2016 HSR Workshop York 12 Venables, Overman and Laird (2014): Transport Investment and Economic Performance. Transport investments “can deliver economic benefits over and above conventionally measured benefits to transport users” because: “Transport fosters intense economic interaction that raises productivity, both within narrowly defined areas or more widely by linking areas” “Transport shapes the level and location of private investment, potentially leading to higher levels of economic activity in some areas”

13. Connectivity - network issues April 2016 HSR Workshop York 13

14. Environmental objectives April 2016 HSR Workshop York 14

15. The choices April 2016 HSR Workshop York 15

16. Conclusions The alternatives to HSR and to HS2 were extensively studied in 2001-2 Objectives for HS2 have never been – as some have suggested – just about ‘getting to Birmingham a few minutes faster’ Last month’s ministerial commitment to Scotland in 3 hours helps meet one of the key environmental objectives (reduced carbon) The implications of giving up on meeting rail demand growth are worth considering very carefully indeed. April 2016 HSR Workshop York 16

17. Thank you HSR Workshop York 17 April 2016