1. GT2020, 7/05 1 Based on Studies for the National Intelligence Council Anny Wong, RAND Corporation 15 October 2008 This briefing is based on the final report from a RAND study: MG- 475-NIC, 2006, and TR-303-NIC, 2006. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. 2020 The Global Technology Revolution Bio/Nano/Materials/Information Trends, Drivers, Barriers, and Social Implications

2. GT2020, 7/05 2 Acknowledgements Technology consultants: Natalie Gassman (nano-drug delivery) Brian Jackson (biotech) Eric Landree (nanotech) Elaine Newton (general tech) Shari Lawrence Pfleeger(infotech) Calvin Shipbaugh(quantum) Felicia Wu (biotech) Regional consultants: Ramesh Bapat (India) Keith Crane (Europe) Heather Gregg (Middle East) Nina Hachigian (Asia) Rollie Lal (South Asia) Kevin O’Brien (Africa) Bill Overholt (China) DJ Peterson (Russia) Angel Rabasa (Latin America) Somi Seong (Korea) Research support: National Intelligence Council Intelligence Technology Innovation Center U.S. Department of Energy Co-PIs: –Richard Silberglitt –Philip S. Antón Core project team –David R. Howell –Anny Wong

3. GT2020, 7/05 3 Foresight of Technology and Its Implications Through 2020 Objective: –Analysis of likely global technology trends and applications Social, political, economic, environmental, personal, regional, international impacts Approach: –Tech trend extrapolation and applications Trends were gleaned and balanced from existing outlooks, testimonies, and foresights, providing collective opinions and points-of-view from a broad spectrum of individuals Developed a vision of a range of future possibilities rather than a single prediction or scenario –Regional needs –Capacity to acquire and implement technology applications

4. GT2020, 7/05 4 2005201020152020 Present-day status and vectors Key Barriers: Social & ethical rejection Unintended environmental effects High-Growth Developments: Widespread Food Manipulation (à la BIO) GM for food and drug production, improved nutrition, natural pest resistances, edible vaccines, and environmental resilience Low-Growth Developments: Slow or No-Go Limited food, plant, and animal modification Slow introduction and longer testing Continued use of traditional GM procedures (cross pollination, selective breeding, and irradiation of seeds) Reliance on traditional pest controls and GM procedures Key Drivers: Investments Scientific progress Effects: Improved nutrition Improved crop yields & drought tolerance More land considered arable Reduced pesticides and deforestation for farming Possible ecosystem changes Possible “good gene” hoarding Effects: Continued slow gains in food production efficiency Increasing caloric and nutritional shortages in the developing world Range of Possible Technology Futures and Effects: Genetically Modified Foods

5. GT2020, 7/05 5 Technology Applications are Implemented to Promote Certain Ends Promote rural economic development Promote economic growth and international commerce Improve public health Improve individual health Reduce resource use and improve environmental health Strengthen the military and warfighters of the future Strengthen homeland security and public safety Influence governance and social structure

6. GT2020, 7/05 6 Major Finding: Not All Nations Will Have Capacity to Acquire and Use All Future Technology Applications Capacity to acquire is based on S&T capacity in each country –Acquisition may be through research & development, technology transfer, licensing, off-the-shelf purchases, copying/piracy. Implementation is not automatic –Implementation is affected by a confluence of economic, social, political and other mitigating factors. Capacity to use technology applications is based on –Capacity to acquire + having sufficient drivers to overcome barriers to implementation.

7. GT2020, 7/05 7 All Technology Applications Have Technical and Implementation Feasibility Issues

8. GT2020, 7/05 8 High Technical Feasibility, Large Market and No Public Policy Issues – Hybrid vehicles (#11) – Rapid bioassays (#5) – Rural wireless communications (#2) – (Internet)

9. GT2020, 7/05 9 – Genetic Screening – GM Crops (#4) – Pervasive Sensors (#12) – Implants for Tracking and ID – Xenotransplantation – CBRN Sensors on ERT – GM Animals for R&D – Unconventional Transport Technically Feasible Group but Moderated Market or Public Policy Issues

10. GT2020, 7/05 10 – Cheap Autonomous Housing (#8) – Print-to-Order-Books – Drugs Tailored to Genetics – Hydrogen Vehicles – Artificial Muscles and Tissue Unlikely 2020 Technically Feasible but Large to Moderate Market Group

11. GT2020, 7/05 11 Unlikely Technically Feasible with Moderated Market and/or Public Policy Issues – Chip implants for brain – Memory-enhancing drugs – Robotic scientist – Super soldiers – Genetic selection of offspring – Proxy-bot – Quantum computers

12. GT2020, 7/05 12 We Also Assessed Technology Applications for Their Societal Sector Impacts WaterFoodLandPopulationGovernanceSocial StructureEnergyHealthEconomicDevelopmentEducationDefense/ConflictEnvironment/Pollution Cheap Solar Energyxxxxxxxxxx Rural Wireless Communications xxxxxxx Genetically Modified Crops xxxxxxxx Rapid Bioassaysxxxx

13. GT2020, 7/05 13 Our Assessment Ranked 16 as the Top Illustrative Technology Applications for 2020 (out of 56) 1. Cheap solar energy 2. Rural wireless Communications 3. Ubiquitous info access 4. Genetically modified crops 5. Rapid bioassays 6. Filters and catalysts 7. Targeted drug delivery 8. Cheap, autonomous housing 9. Green manufacturing 10. Ubiquitous Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) tagging 11. Hybrid vehicles 12. Pervasive sensors 13. Tissue engineering 14. Improved diagnostic and surgical methods 15. Wearable computers 16. Quantum cryptography

14. GT2020, 7/05 14 Countries Were Rated Based on Their Capability to Acquire Representative Applications Advanced Proficient Developing Lagging *** Not every country can acquire all these future technology applications

15. GT2020, 7/05 15 29 Sample Countries, Ranking by S&T Capacity & No. of Technology Applications They Can Acquire Scientifically advanced countries –Australia, Canada, Germany, Israel, Japan, South Korea, United States (all top 16 for each) Scientifically proficient countries –China, India, Poland, Russia (12 of 16 for each) Scientifically developing countries –Brazil (9), Chile (9), Colombia (8), Indonesia (9), Mexico (9), South Africa (9), Turkey (9) Scientifically lagging countries –Cameroon, Chad, Dominican Republic, Egypt, Fiji, Iran, Jordan, Kenya, Nepal, Pakistan (5 of top 16 for each)

16. GT2020, 7/05 16 Many Sources Used to Assess National Capacity (and Needs) in Addition to Expert Input United Nations Human Development Index –Per capita gross domestic product (GDP) (purchasing power parity) –Population profile: size, growth rate, gender balance, age (2002, 2015) –% of GDP for education, research & development, military –Gender ratio in primary, secondary, tertiary education –Percentage of population with access to improved water supply and sanitation –No. of physicians and hospital beds per 100,000 persons –Electricity consumption, per capita in kilowatt hours –% of population with fixed phone lines, internet access Freedom House Political Rights and Civil Liberties Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index RAND’s Country Index of Science and Technology Capacity World Bank’s Knowledge Economy Index –Innovation, Economic Incentive Regime, Education, Information Infrastructure

17. GT2020, 7/05 17 Drivers for, and Barriers to, Technology Implementation Were Assessed for Each Country 1. Cost and financing 2. Laws and policies 3. Social values, public opinions, politics 4. Infrastructure 5. Privacy concerns 6. Resource use and environmental health 7. Investment in R&D 8. Education and literacy 9. Population and demographics 10. Governance and stability These drivers/barriers together represent the Institutional, Physical, and Human capacities available in a society to use technology.

18. GT2020, 7/05 18 Barriers: a. Cost/Financing b. Laws/Policies c. Social Values, Politics d. Infrastructure e. Privacy Concerns f. Resource Use, Env. Health g. Investment in R&D h. Education & Literacy i. Population & Demographics j. Governance & Stability Drivers: a. Cost/Financing b. Laws/Policies c. Social Values, Politics d. Infrastructure e. Privacy Concerns f. Resource Use, Env. Health g. Investment in R&D h. Education & Literacy i. Population & Demographics j. Governance & Stability Scientifically Advanced Country: United States Scientifically advanced countries have many drivers and few barriers to enable use of all future technology applications Top 16 Technology Applications 1. Cheap solar energy 2. Rural wireless comm. 3. Ubiquitous info access 4. Genetically modified crops 5. Rapid bioassays 6. Filters and catalysts 7. Targeted drug delivery 8. Cheap, autonomous housing 9. Green manufacturing 10. Ubiquitous RFID 11. Hybrid vehicles 12. Pervasive sensors 13. Tissue engineering 14. Improved diagnostic & surgical methods 15. Wearable computers 16. Quantum cryptography

19. GT2020, 7/05 19 Scientifically Proficient Country: China Drivers: a. Cost/Financing b. Laws/Policies c. Social Values, Politics d. Infrastructure e. Privacy Concerns f. Resource Use, Env. Health g. Investment in R&D h. Education & Literacy i. Population & Demographics j. Governance & Stability Scientifically proficient countries have similar numbers of drivers and barriers Scientifically proficient countries have similar numbers of drivers and barriers Top 16 Technology Applications 1. Cheap solar energy 2. Rural wireless comm. 3. Ubiquitous info access 4. Genetically modified crops 5. Rapid bioassays 6. Filters and catalysts 7. Targeted drug delivery 8. Cheap, autonomous housing 9. Green manufacturing 10. Ubiquitous RFID 11. Hybrid vehicles 12. Pervasive sensors 13. Tissue engineering 14. Improved diagnostic & surgical methods 15. Wearable computers 16. Quantum cryptography Barriers: a. Cost/Financing b. Laws/Policies c. Social Values, Politics d. Infrastructure e. Privacy Concerns f. Resource Use, Env. Health g. Investment in R&D h. Education & Literacy i. Population and Demographics j. Governance & Stability

20. GT2020, 7/05 20 Scientifically Developing Country: Brazil Barriers: a. Cost/Financing b. Laws/Policies c. Social Values, Politics d. Infrastructure e. Privacy Concerns f. Resource Use, Env. Health g. Investment in R&D h. Education & Literacy i. Population, Demographics j. Governance and Stability Drivers: a. Cost/Financing b. Laws/Policies c. Social Values, Politics d. Infrastructure e. Privacy Concerns f. Resource Use, Env. Health g. Investment in R&D h. Education and Literacy i. Population, Demographics j. Governance and Stability Top 16 Technology Applications 1. Cheap solar energy 2. Rural wireless comm. 3. Ubiquitous info access 4. Genetically modified crops 5. Rapid bioassays 6. Filters and catalysts 7. Targeted drug delivery 8. Cheap, autonomous housing 9. Green manufacturing 10. Ubiquitous RFID 11. Hybrid vehicles 12. Pervasive sensors 13. Tissue engineering 14. Improved diagnostic & surgical methods 15. Wearable computers 16. Quantum cryptography Scientifically developing countries have some drivers but also many barriers Scientifically developing countries have some drivers but also many barriers

21. GT2020, 7/05 21 Scientifically Lagging Country: Pakistan Barriers: a. Cost/Financing b. Laws/Policies c. Social Values, Politics d. Infrastructure e. Privacy Concerns f. Resource Use, Env. Health g. Investment in R&D h. Education & Literacy i. Population & Demographics j. Governance & Stability Scientifically lagging countries have a large number of barriers and few drivers Drivers: a. Cost/Financing b. Laws/Policies c. Social Values, Politics d. Infrastructure e. Privacy Concerns f. Resource Use, Env. Health g. Investment in R&D h. Education & Literacy i. Population & Demographics j. Governance & Stability Top 16 Technology Applications 1. Cheap solar energy 2. Rural wireless comm. 3. Ubiquitous info access 4. Genetically modified crops 5. Rapid bioassays 6. Filters and catalysts 7. Targeted drug delivery 8. Cheap, autonomous housing 9. Green manufacturing 10. Ubiquitous RFID 11. Hybrid vehicles 12. Pervasive sensors 13. Tissue engineering 14. Improved diagnostic & surgical methods 15. Wearable computers 16. Quantum cryptography

22. GT2020, 7/05 22 Gap Between Scientifically Lagging and Scientifically Advanced Countries Is Enormous Based on 16 Technology Applications Representative of General S&T Capacity

23. GT2020, 7/05 23 Implications of Our Research for National Governments in Promoting S&T for Development This research can inform investment strategies through a structured approach that –Integrates S&T capacity building with other areas of investment (e.g., education, health, infrastructure, gender development, energy and resource sustainability, etc.) –Provides a basis to support planning and resourcing for building S&T capacity to achieve near- and long-term goals in development –Offers metrics to track development progress across sectors

24. GT2020, 7/05 24 The Global Technology Revolution 2020 Richard Silberglitt, Philip S. Antón, David R. Howell, Anny Wong

25. GT2020, 7/05 25 Illustrative Technology Applications for 2020 1. Cheap Solar Energy 2. Rural Wireless Communications 3. Ubiquitous Information Access 4. Genetically Modified Crops 5. Rapid Bioassays 6. Filters and Catalysts 7. Targeted Drug Delivery 8. Cheap Autonomous Housing 9. Green Manufacturing 10. Ubiquitous Radio Frequency Identification Tagging

26. GT2020, 7/05 26 Continue 11. Hybrid Vehicles 12. Pervasive Sensors 13. Tissue Engineering 14. Improved Diagnostic and Surgical Methods 15. Wearable Computers 16. Quantum Cryptography 17. Hands-free Computer Interface 18. In Silico Drug R&D 19. Smart Textiles 20. Resistant Textiles

27. GT2020, 7/05 27 Continue 21. Electronic Transactions 22. Genetic Screening 23. Genetically Modified Insects 24. Unconventional Transport 25. Commercial Unmanned Aerial Vehicles 26. Drug Development from Screening 27. Monitoring and Control for Disease Management 28. Enhanced Medical Recovery 29. Secure Data Transfer 30. Print-to-Order Books

28. GT2020, 7/05 28 Continue 31. Therapies based on Stem Cell R&D 32. Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear (CBRN) Sensor Network in Cities 33. CBRN Sensors on Emergency Response Teams 34. Immunotherapy 35. Improved Treatments from Data Analysis 36. Smart Systems 37. Hydrogen Vehicles 38. Implants for Tracking and Identification 39. Gene Therapy 40. Chip Implants for the Brain

29. GT2020, 7/05 29 Continue 41. Drugs Tailored to Genetics 42. Secure Video Monitoring 43. Biometrics as Sole Identification 44. Hospital Robotics 45. Military Nanotechnologies 46. Military Robotics 47. Xenotransplantation 48. Artificial Muscles and Tissue 49. Genetically Modified Animals for R&D 50. High-Tech Terrorism

30. GT2020, 7/05 30 Continue 51. Memory Enhancing Drugs 52. Super Soldiers 53. Genetic Selection of Offspring 54. Proxy-bot 55. Quantum Computers 56. Robotic Scientist